Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
By Brandon Smith For those who haven’t followed the shifting relationship between Washington and Europe closely, something important is happening beneath the surface of ordinary diplomacy. The U.S. and Western Europe are no longer moving in lockstep. On trade, energy, immigration, defense spending and relations with China, old assumptions are starting to break down. That …
Two economists just published a mathematical proof that AI will destroy the economy. Not might. Not could. Will! The paper is called “The AI Layoff Trap.” Published March 2, 2026. Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Boston University. Peer reviewed. Mathematically modeled. The conclusion is one sentence: “At the limit, firms automate their way to boundless productivity and …
By Peter Reagan At the moment, there’s a strange disconnect between the growing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and the fact that, for most Americans, life still feels normal. Gas prices did surge, but they’ve stabilized during the two months since the conflict began. Store shelves are still stocked. Most people can go about …
Something about this feels familiar. Not in the details, but in the tone. The warnings are starting to sound like they did before 2008. Quiet. Technical. Polite. But the words are the same. “Insurers shopping for better ratings on their private credit assets are creating a “looming systemic risk” to global finance, the chair of …
Mortgage rates jump 20 basis points following Fed cut While the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate this week, mortgage rates responded by doing just the opposite. The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage has jumped 20 basis points since Chairman Jerome Powell announced the cut on Wednesday and held a news conference, …
Now 450 economists are lining up to defend mortgage fraud, all to serve an agenda that has nothing to do with truth. https://twitter.com/PoliticsOnX/status/1962885079727824910 https://twitter.com/AirborneRxDr/status/1962889230847459751 https://twitter.com/C_3C_3/status/1963240149917032527
🚨 JUST IN: President Trump takes huge victory lap on the economists and experts after latest inflation report “It has been shown that, for the most part, Consumers aren’t even paying these Tariffs, it is mostly Companies and Governments, many of them Foreign, picking up the… pic.twitter.com/M3b4E4iXuQ — Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) August 12, 2025 Americans …
The global easing cycle continues pic.twitter.com/2umptKG11j — The Long View (@HayekAndKeynes) June 18, 2025 Gold is increasingly on the radar of Wall Street heavyweights and influential economists. Just in the last 2 months: Jeff Gundlach (DoubleLine) calls gold a "Flight-to-quality asset". Kenneth Rogoff (Harvard) says "Gold is the new gold". David Einhorn (Greenlight) notes that… …
This chart shows the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. within the next 12 months, based on Wall Street Journal surveys of economists from 2023 to 2025. The data points reflect the average response in each survey. In early 2023, the likelihood was around 60%. It gradually declined through 2023 and 2024, hitting a …
Economic growth in the first quarter was just 0.3%, according to CNBC’s Rapid Update which tallied the forecasts of 14 economists. The survey also shows Core PCE inflation will remain stuck at around 2.9% for most of the year. The dour new forecasts come as the decline in consumer and business sentiment from the emerging …
by Mike Shedlock A group of 76 economists upped their inflation forecasts through 2027. Trump’s Return Nudges Economists’ Inflation Outlook Higher The Wall Street Journal reports Trump’s Return Nudges Economists’ Inflation Outlook Higher Economists are starting to model the effects of President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to raise tariffs, cut taxes and restrict immigration. The upshot: Inflation …
This could explain a LOT about the November election. “The gap between economists’ measurements of economic well-being and what consumers actually said they were feeling puzzled many researchers.” Because the Fed and researchers measured the cost of living wrong. Still do. They lowered inflation in 1983 by changing the way they measured inflation. The red …
The expectation that President-elect Donald Trump will implement new tariffs early next year and an impasse over the use of automation at East and Gulf Coast ports with a new strike deadline looming has shipping companies gaming out an uncertain supply chain environment. Logistics firm C.H. Robinson tells CNBC it is fielding inquiries about front-loading …
Are rate cuts bullish? No. Is the worst over? No. Can Wall Street be trusted? No. The chart of the week: "Not this again!" pic.twitter.com/ArMnkGs4vS — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 9, 2024 It took all week but the S&P 500 has rallied back to Friday's closing level. It was a week to nowhere and no net …
by confoundedinterest17 Hey big spenders (Biden, Congress and the 16 Nobel prize winning economists). June 25 (Reuters) – Sixteen Nobel prize-winning economists signed a letter on Tuesday warning that the U.S. and world economy will suffer if Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election in November. The jointly signed letter, first reported by Axios, says …
via Mike Shedlock The Wall Street Journal asked 69 economists what they thought about the economy. Let’s check out the results. By nearly 20 percentage points, a WSJ Survey of Economists said Biden would be better for the economy. Unfortunately, the Journal did not ask the economists why. The answers would likely have been humorous. Federal Funds …
Bloomberg: How Were So Many Economists So Wrong About the Recession? Fears of a recession are fading fast, but the debate over the flaws of economic forecasting is just beginning. Last year at this time, 85% of economists in one poll predicted a recession this year — and that was an optimistic take compared to …
Warren Buffett’s firm Berkshire Hathaway sold $28.7 billion of stock in the first three quarters of 2023 in a move that some economists have interpreted as ringing alarm bells for the American economy. According to the company’s earnings, the Nebraska-based firm of the legendary investor and billionaire, known as the Oracle of Omaha, sold a …
by DAVID HAGGITH Statue of a REAL economist — Adam Smith. Photo by K. Mitch Hodge on Unsplash Can you believe the Treasury market is already unwinding its bets that the Fed is done fighting inflation, even as the Champaign is still bubbling in half-empty flutes left behind from everyone’s celebration of the Fed’s victory? Of all the …
by mrmrmrj Here are some recent “news” articles: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/08/apartment-rents-on-verge-of-declining-due-to-massive-supply.html Rents in August were just 0.28% higher than August 2022, according to RealPage. Compare that to a year ago, when rents were posting 11% annual growth. The number of new units being built is at a 50-year high, with more than 460,000 being completed this year …
via MishTalk: The only time rent went negative year-over-year was in the Great Recession, even then, just barely. Yet, every month we see reports of falling rent and expectations that it soon will. Housing units completed from the Census Department, Rent from the BLS, chart by Mish I created the above chart today because people …
by Chris Black Supply and demand for physical products have nothing to do with the price. The price is not set by consumers or producers. The price is set by speculators using HFT algorithms to move the price for maximum profit on synthetic contracts traded on exchanges. 99.9% of the daily volume of oil contracts …
by TonyLiberty The housing market is in a difficult state, with low inventory, high mortgage rates, and high prices making it difficult for buyers to afford homes. Despite aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, home prices have remained high. First-time homebuyers are having difficulty competing with investors, who are able to make all-cash offers …
by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4&output_view=pct_1mth The Acceleration of Inflation in the Second Half Has Begun, “Disinflation” Honeymoon Terminated The Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped by 0.63% in August from July, the biggest month-to-month increase since June 2022. Annualized, this amounts to a red-hot 7.8%. This jump comes despite the still ongoing ridiculous monthly adjustment to the health …
Student loan forbearance repealed starting on Oct 1. For each person with a loan that’s $400 per month. Just another headwind to add to the pile. Prediction: Economists will be baffled. Percent of Russell 3000 Earnings Calls Mentioning Student Loans pic.twitter.com/79uQ2rjWIe — Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) September 11, 2023 h/t Tonight We Ride!
JPMORGAN: “.. there is now a higher likelihood of a crisis over the next 6 to 12 months, the severity of which could be higher than [markets] anticipate. Risks of an interest rate shock .. are clear: consumer credit .. funding of startups .. impact on employment ..” [Kolanovic] pic.twitter.com/PvXkzsZA2Z — Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) September …
via YAHOO: WASHINGTON (AP) — Even President Joe Biden has some regrets about the name of the Inflation Reduction Act: As the giant law turns 1 on Wednesday, it’s increasingly clear that immediately curbing prices wasn’t the point. While price increases have cooled over the past year — the inflation rate has dropped from 9% …
