Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
UBS quietly nuked every rate cut fantasy while the suits still scream everything is fine. https://x.com/sayonarashorts/status/2052106342840815922 Oil at $100 for months quietly wrecks the global economy without ever needing to hit $200. Here’s the reality. Oil doesn’t need to go to $130, $150 or $200. It just needs to stay around $100 a barrel for …
Multiple risk stack flagged, macro shock, private credit stress, AI valuation reset risk combined. Global stock markets are too high and set to fall, says Bank of England deputy “The thing that really keeps me awake at night is the likelihood of a number of risks crystallising at the same time – a major macroeconomic …
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx Oil spikes as Trump's Iran war speech sends global markets into turmoil https://t.co/rFQb23WtaW — Daily Mail (@DailyMail) April 2, 2026 Oil prices spiked and global markets plunged after Donald Trump’s prime-time address to the nation Wednesday failed to outline a clear path to ending the Iran war. Trump’s speech provided no certainty as he …
BREAKING: Europe spent four years escaping Russian gas. It cut dependence from 40 percent to under 10 percent. It built LNG terminals. It signed long-term contracts with Qatar. It celebrated energy independence. Then America bombed Iran. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar declared force majeure. And European gas prices nearly doubled in a month. …
Absolutely wild when you consider that the cost of jet fuel has risen 50% since the Iran conflict began. They are claiming they see 10% revenue growth on strong demand, yet make no mention of the potential impact that increased fuel costs will have on these projections, only… https://t.co/ic90JUwjnw — Michael Bento (@MichaelPBento) March 17, …
For those arguing the GDP data "isn't that bad" due to the gov't shutdown, the ACTUAL data DISAGREES. The GDP Deflator came in at 3.6% – meaning most of the 1.4% GDP was inflation, NOT real growth. Forget the shutdown excuse. The weakness is real, and productivity is terrible. https://t.co/W13nd3nZAh pic.twitter.com/f88eUhdNRX — Gordon Johnson (@GordonJohnson19) …
The U.S. deficit with its global trading partners nearly doubled in November as the shortfall with the European Union swelled and the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs worked their way through the economy, the Census Bureau reported Thursday. Following a month where the trade deficit hit its lowest level since early 2009, it shot …
The old bond market adage is that yields will keep rising until something breaks. In 2022/23, rising U.S. yields "broke" several banks by March 2023 (Silicon Valley Bank). Japanese yields are now at a 27-year high and going vertical. When does something "break" in Japan? pic.twitter.com/qMANhs6pIm — Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) January 19, 2026 *JAPAN 40-YEAR …
The US blockaded Venezuela, ostensibly, to enforce oil sanctions. Today, China blockaded Taiwan, ostensibly, as part of military drills. The Centuries and the Skipper ships seized by the US off the coast of Venezuela were carrying oil destined for Asia, possibly China, or maybe Taiwan. Given the fact that nations around the world are cancelling …
Natural Gas spikes to highest price in 3 years 📈📈 pic.twitter.com/hRlDg5Vxe9 — Barchart (@Barchart) December 4, 2025 U.S. natural gas futures spiked to their highest levels in nearly three years as models now show a frigid first half of December across the Lower 48. Several forecasters are also warning of a potential polar-vortex-driven Arctic blast …
by Michael For a long time we were warned that when the financial system finally started melting down, the price of silver would explode. It appears that those that predicted this were quite prescient. The yen carry trade is unwinding, more than a trillion dollars in cryptocurrency wealth has been wiped out, stocks and bonds have …
History keeps repeating when people forget what it cost. This is probably the most scary chart you will see today. How is it possible that socialist indoctrination at universities and in media is so successful? Socialism has always brought misery and oppression, why don’t young people understand history? pic.twitter.com/mTqtgZXoIc — Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) November …
US executives are getting more concerned about the economy: The share of S&P 500 companies mentioning “recession” during their Q1 2025 earnings calls spiked to 23%, the highest since 2022. This percentage has surpassed levels recorded in all years between 2008 and 2020, except for 2010. Additionally, 62% of US CEOs expect either a slowdown …
The market we have now is a bearish phase within a secular uptrend. A sustained uptrend typically doesn’t return until the event that triggered the downturn becomes irrelevant. However, if that event is about to be resolved, the market can skyrocket, breaking above the 200-day… — optionGeek (@StockShark16) April 15, 2025 $SPY options open interest …
Egg-related seizures have surged 116% in the first two months of 2025 compared to the same period last year, with officials reporting 3,254 interceptions, according to CBP data. The spike comes as U.S. egg prices continue to soar, driven by a historic avian flu outbreak decimating poultry farms nationwide. Meanwhile, fentanyl seizures have fallen 32% …
Auto repossession is on the rise again, and it’s becoming a real issue. Small dealerships are struggling, with many going bankrupt, and the situation could get worse in 2025. Repossessions are spiking, though detailed data is hard to come by, especially since the last available numbers are from December 2022. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau …
There are now more military troops in the NYC Subway than on 9/11, making many people question if NYC is actually as safe as were told it is… Buzzer – Cushy
BTC is a scam that targets the dumbest of the dumb. You trade your spendable money for un-spendable money in the hopes that it will be spendable one day. — Bit_Faced (@Bit_Faced) December 14, 2024 The last 2 times we had massive spikes was around the tops based off that graph. — Marley Chunger (@Waltonius) …
BREAKING: Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo fell by $50B to $155B for the first time since 2021. Normally when this money market fund liquidity leaves RRP it goes into U.S. Treasuries, driving yields down. Instead the U.S. 10 year yield rocketed to 4.365% this week. BREAKING: Federal Reserve's Reverse Repo fell by $50B to $155B for …
The unemployment rate for young, college-educated women just had its boldest non-Covid jump since records began in 2000 (not seasonally adjusted). This series moves up and down like a Richter scale. Even so, the nature of this rapid pop from 1.8% to 4.1% caught my eye. pic.twitter.com/N70lXNqMPw — Jeff Weniger (@JeffWeniger) July 8, 2024 U.S. …
US labor market is only strong in the headlines: 1.5 million Americans lost their full-time job in just 6 months. Meanwhile, the BLS and Media Headlines: The US economy has been adding jobs for 40 straight months. Truly incredible.https://t.co/aBnhvZ4VI6 — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) June 18, 2024 Magic, pure magic pic.twitter.com/p914IlcsCP — Michael A. Arouet …
Recent economic updates from the U.S. paint a bleak picture, stirring deep unease among investors. The latest indicators, including the sharp decline in the Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index, signal a worrisome underperformance reminiscent of the tumultuous trends observed in 2019. This downturn in economic sentiment comes at a precarious moment, with all eyes fixed on …
"Victory on inflation" Core PCE accelerates as government continues to print currency. pic.twitter.com/hxtOp0XAYl — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) May 28, 2024 The acceleration of Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) coupled with ongoing currency printing paints a grim economic picture. As the government increases its monetary supply, inflationary pressures intensify, impacting everyday consumers and eroding purchasing power. …
Market turbulence ensues as S&P 500 futures plummet nearly 100 points within minutes following March CPI inflation data. Rising inflation for the second consecutive month sparks concerns and fuels speculation about potential rate cuts. BREAKING: S&P 500 futures are now down nearly 100 points in less than 10 minutes after March CPI inflation. The 3.5% …
Hate crimes in NYC were going down, but now that trend has sadly reversed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xJdW_Y7DlY
The jump in various food commodity prices is not entirely due to inflation. However, rising food prices certainly are contributing to the ongoing issue. It truly is a unique time to be an investor/trader. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 5, 2023 https://t.co/sLpTGRJBZU — Win …
by BoatSurfer600 https://wolfstreet.com/2023/06/21/inflation-shocker-in-the-uk-core-cpi-spikes-to-30-year-high-driven-by-spike-in-services-even-as-motor-fuel-prices-plunge/ I like how it excludes food and energy. keks
