Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Related Last Previous Unit Reference ISM Manufacturing PMI 52.70 52.70 points Apr 2026 Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.20 0.03 points Mar 2026 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index -2.30 -0.20 points Apr 2026 Factory Orders MoM 0.00 0.00 percent Feb 2026 Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index 10.00 11.00 points Apr 2026 Manufacturing Production YoY 0.50 1.10 percent …
Just like the Nasdaq blowoff in early 2000 where every tech index screamed higher right before the crash wiped out years of gains. ⚠️THIS IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE: The Semiconductor Index, $SOX, relative to the S&P 500, rose to an all-time high of 1.39, This means semiconductors are now outperforming the average S&P 500 stock by …
The most stable index in history – DJT (Dow Jones Transportation) is -7% today …. pic.twitter.com/TKQioA40FY — Data Driven Stocks (@stockdatamarket) April 22, 2026 So we are flat for the last few days. Most of the market gains are due to the $SOXX – which rises for the straight 22 days. Still S&P 500 / …
Past periods of rising small business uncertainty led to hiring slowdowns and reduced capital spending due to weaker demand visibility and tighter credit conditions US small businesses are highly concerned about the economy: The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped -3.0 points in March, to 95.8, the lowest since April 2025. This marks the 3rd …
Energy stocks are making history: The US Energy Select Sector Index has gained for 14 consecutive weeks, the longest streak on record. The index has rallied +43% over that stretch byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts
We’re approaching a long-term trendline that has held since the 2020 lows — and momentum is building. Key levels to watch: • First resistance: 95–100 • Macro breakout zone: 135–140 (cycle-level) What’s interesting is the sequence: Precious metals moved first. Then industrial metals followed. Energy came next. Now it’s agriculture’s turn. This rotation across commodities …
treasury notes performed very well in both instances pic.twitter.com/maLk8R0oMv — Matthew (@GoodTexture) February 23, 2026 Seasoned traders know what this means. The generals are starting to crumble. These aren’t high beta stocks. I’ve seen this movie a few times. It always plays out the same. 1Q 2000, 3Q 2007, 3Q 2015, & 4Q 2021 the …
They're hiding a job market collapse. Hiding the job market collapse keeps the stock market higher. Keeping the stock market higher lets the top 10% keep spending. What happens when the charade ends? https://t.co/cDYrPPyai7 pic.twitter.com/38KbSeVM7f — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) February 17, 2026 Cass Freight index plunges. Only weaker at the depths of the GFC. pic.twitter.com/lWKGk8TVcX …
VIX is still in backwardation. In fact it is more so than it was yesterday. This is typically not a bullish sign, especially going into a 3 day weekend where normally vol would be expected to be crushed. pic.twitter.com/kc1814fhLo — Michael Bento (@MichaelPBento) February 13, 2026 $VIX is goin 25 tuesday/wednesday and there is not …
Countries’ drop in scores in annual table comes amid ‘worrying trend’ of backsliding in established democracies The UK and US have sunk to new lows in a global index of corruption, amid a “worrying trend” of democratic institutions being eroded by political donations, cash for access and state targeting of campaigners and journalists. Experts and …
via confoundedinterest17 Keep on printing money. It seems that home price growth requires The Fed to keep printing money. S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November (“November” is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing prices). September closing prices include some contracts signed in July, so there is a significant lag to this data. …
All-time highs in dollars just expose how fast the currency is collapsing. Trump just celebrated the S&P 500 hitting an all-time high. But look at the chart below. This is the S&P 500 priced in Gold (Real Money). It isn't going up… it's free falling. We just broke a 10-year support line and the US …
The dollar index bounces as fears of a yen bailout ease and euro cools down. via Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/07NO9OTEFf — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) January 27, 2026 Europeans are piling into US stocks: European investors now own a record $10.4 trillion in US stocks. Ownership has surged +$4.9 trillion, or +91%, over the last 3 years. Denmark, …
Trump is wrecking America like he bankrupted his 7 businesses. pic.twitter.com/qFDqGZ3hu5 — ADAM (@AdameMedia) January 26, 2026 US dollar index hits lowest since September while silver and gold surge. BREAKING: 🇺🇸 While the silver and gold skyrocket, the US Dollar Index extends losses to -1.5% this month, now at its lowest level since September 18th. …
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US Inflation Index is dropping hard. More rate cuts and QE is coming in 2026. pic.twitter.com/WqrdhQK4K1 — Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) December 22, 2025
The world is about to pump massive liquidity into the system: – The US pauses QT, runs record deficits, and is considering $2,000 stimulus checks – China is running the largest deficit in its history – Japan is preparing a $110 billion stimulus package – The EU is planning to spend ~$1 trillion on military …
via AIER’s The Daily Economy: The 2025 Thanksgiving season arrives with an unwelcome development: after last year’s brief and much-needed period of easing in several Thanksgiving staples, prices have begun to tick back up. As of September 2025, the AIER Thanksgiving Cost Index stands at 1904.72, less than half of one percent from its all-time high of 1912.30 (2023). …
100%. People who think we are at a bottom NEVER worked in Wall Street during the 1980's or after the https://t.co/HmaWI5h0HY dibacle. Children use this measure. — Everybody Lies (@furrshurr1) November 21, 2025 Crackdown on immigration, deteriorating employment market, correction in crypto and equities, rates barely moving down, supply piling up in the Sunbelt, weakening …
by confoundedinterest17 Case-Shiller home price indices are out today. The Case-Shiller NATIONAL home price index is up 1.5% on a year-over-year basis, but down -0.30% on a month-over-month basis). Don’t worry. The Fed won’t stop printing money.
by confoundedinterest17 Feelin’ stronger for the most part. Mortgage applications decreased 4.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 3, 2025. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted …
VIX +10%, QQQ +4%, market bubble like nothing seen before. Never seen $VIX climb +10% over a 10-day stretch while $QQQ climbed 4% at the same time. Divergences like this might pop up for a day or two, but not for this long and not into new ATHs. Today feels like the biggest bubble I’ve …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, The housing picture remains grim. NAHB Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), chart by Mish Housing cannot gain traction as mortgage rates are still too high and prices are out of sight. Please consider the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for August, 2025. Key Findings Current sales conditions fell one …
Warning to young investors margin and leverage can turn market dips into financial disasters. The composite Nasdaq volume have been screwy lately due to some heavy share volume in penny stocks, so I am leery about trusting any insights from those data. Here is the traditional (not ratio-adjusted) Volume Summation Index for the stocks in …
SPX historically drops 2% after similar signals since 2011 According to BofA's Michael Hartnett, #sell #signals have been triggered.– BofA FMS Cash Rule: cash as % AUM in FMS 3.9%. = sell signal…average SPX loss in following most from 15 "sell" signals since 2011 = 2%;– BofA Global Breadth Rule: 64% of MSCI ACWI equity …
Gold is no longer tethered to the dollar index. It’s been moving sideways from currency markets for months. The break became visible in April when the dollar index fell 6.4% off its March high, but gold kept climbing. It hit $3,288 per ounce on July 1. That is not noise. That is decoupling. The technicals …
The US Dollar Index has dropped nearly 10% in just 6 months, so why is nobody talking about it? byu/Select_Season7735 inStockMarket Since the US Dollar Index began in 1967, it has rarely dropped 10% in just 6 months. In fact, it’s only happened twice: Late 1985-Mid 1986, and Early 2025-Now. With the dollar crashing at …
"The economic data change index is at its lowest level in more than two years, while the economic surprise index is at its lowest level of 2025."@LJKawa pic.twitter.com/MKELKxtPHl — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) June 19, 2025 CPI ex-shelter falls to 1.5% yet Fed and Wall Street still fear tariffs and wages, ignoring signs of real disinflation …
Echoes of 2008 stir on Wall Street… Just as in 2000 & 2007, when weekly unemployment claims start nearing 300K you can kiss the bull market goodbye. Mark it down. 💯 Chart from @profplum99. pic.twitter.com/bJffcNyvN5 — John (@market_sleuth) June 19, 2025 CRASH WARNING🛑 Dow Jones 2008 vs 2025 Likely or Unlikely? Study carefully; carefully study. …
When the carry trade unwind inevitably comes, it’s going to be incredible to watch. — Middle Man (@npresc) May 22, 2025 UK now Japan 🫣 pic.twitter.com/qhfg0nK6YU — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) May 23, 2025
⚠️BREAKING: *U.S. Q1 GDP FALLS -0.3%, EST. 0.2%; PREV. 2.4% 🇺🇸🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/mahT0YOWbX — Investing.com (@Investingcom) April 30, 2025 Breaking Q1 GDP first look. -.3% vs -.2% exp. Recession? Pricing index 3.7% vs 3.2% expectations Stagflation? Oof 🤦♂️ — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) April 30, 2025 Yields up. Stocks getting REKT pic.twitter.com/ZVvzwrx8hX — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) April …