Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by TonyLiberty You should have $1,900,000 tax-free in 30 years if you invest $10,000 into your Roth IRA with an S&P 500 index fund, and contribute $500 a month. The total principal invested would only be $190,000 but $1,710,000 would be from the magic of compound interest over 30 years. +11.51% is the Average Annual …
by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4&output_view=pct_1mth The Acceleration of Inflation in the Second Half Has Begun, “Disinflation” Honeymoon Terminated The Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped by 0.63% in August from July, the biggest month-to-month increase since June 2022. Annualized, this amounts to a red-hot 7.8%. This jump comes despite the still ongoing ridiculous monthly adjustment to the health …
Global stock markets peaked a month ago at the end of July. Then fell for the first three weeks of August. Today, Nasdaq breadth was strongest since the market top. September will be hell. pic.twitter.com/FST2UcLsci — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 30, 2023 The FDIC is literally using the same script as 2020… They're changing the reserve …
“US ECONOMY EXPANDS 2.1% IN Q2, LESS THAN ADVANCE ESTIMATE”: This means that the U.S. economy’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 2.1% during the second quarter (Q2) of the year. However, this growth rate was lower than what was initially estimated in the advance estimate. Ok? “US 2Q CORE PCE …
by confoundedinterest17 The US housing market is truly bizarro world! San Francisco and Seattle are down near 10% year-over-year (YoY) while Chicago and Cleveland lead in price gains. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported 0.0% annual change in June, up from a loss of …
by mark000 https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed Has dropped from 83 five weeks ago to 44 today. Global: market crash + financial system crisis + economic depression approaching. Or worse…… Bulls, is this a good idea? You can't always tell. pic.twitter.com/mPetdsVxxi — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 25, 2023 He got away with it last time. pic.twitter.com/s4gHCrrUFw — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August …
This week, mortgage rates in the US hit their highest since 2001. We are well above the 2008 highs and rising. After the Fed minutes were released today, rate expectations increased. Bumpy road for homebuyers. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 16, 2023 Mortgage rates …
via Mike Shedlock: The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) resumed its slide in August. Traffic remains in the gutter. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) is based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the single-family housing market. The survey asks respondents to rate market conditions …
by betsharks0 Think the great downward spiral of China has started. It is going to be very difficult for them to get out of it. They were so stupid to piss off so many of their neighbors and biting the hand that fed them. We are not even really very far into the demographics nightmare …
by MyRealLifeHD The S&P U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities Index is a measure of the performance of mortgage-backed securities. A decline in the index could have a number of implications for the stock market. Lower mortgage rates: Mortgage-backed securities are typically priced inversely to interest rates. This means that when interest rates fall, the prices of mortgage-backed securities …
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index plummets to -20 in July, signaling sharp contraction in the regions mfg activity. pic.twitter.com/98y7PpgAn1 — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) July 27, 2023 Kansas Fed Composite Index edges up to -11 in July from -12 in June, but don't be deceived by modest gains. The economy remains entrenched in weakness. Beneath the surface, …
by confoundedinterest17 The Case-Shiller home price numbers are out for May. The national home price index is down -0.46% YoY as The Fed slows M2 Money growth into negative growth territory. No doubt Biden (and Karine Jean-Pierre) will take credit for slowing home price growth, although The Federal Reserve slowing monetary stimulus is mostly responsible. …
Richmond Fed manufacturing index showed the sector contracting in the district for the 10th month out of the last 12. This data looks more stagflationary then a substantial recession, still. Actual -9, previous -8 pic.twitter.com/D82XqiDoRm — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) July 25, 2023
https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/the-nasdaq-100-index-special-rebalance-to-be-effective-july-24-2023-2023-07-07 This seems to have flown under the radar, or maybe I was just living under a rock. I suppose a systematic means of limiting concentration is a good thing, but I’m curious how the applicable ETFs will handle the adjustment and whether there will be any tax implications. h/t HulksInvinciblePants
Philly Fed manufacturing index below -25 has a 100% hit rate in leading to recessions since the 1970s We’ve already hit levels as deep as -31.3 this cycle pic.twitter.com/b0oZkiqicM — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 20, 2023 BREAKING: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index comes in below expectations Expected = -10.1 Actual = -13.5 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) …
by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/snapshot/Snapshot_July2023.pdf Overview of the July 2023 Snapshot GDP growth slowed: Q1 GDP was about .5% below what it would been if since Q42019, it grew at a rate close to long-term forecasts. Consumer real spending on services up 2.6%—still greater then 2%… Average hourly earnings up 4.4% in June. The employment-to-population ratio for …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm All items less food and energy: Inflation and Housing: The overall index for items excluding food and energy increased by 0.2% in June. The cost of housing, represented by the shelter index, rose by 0.4% in June. Rent increased by 0.5%, and owners’ equivalent rent (for homeowners) increased by 0.4%. However, …
by confoundedinterest17 I am anxiously waiting for the US inflation report tomorrow, so I am just looking at the US Treasury yield curve, mortgage rates and cryptos today. The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve stumbled (just like Biden and Bidenomics) to -91.166 basis points as the turnaround in M2 Money growth has stalled. Bankrate’s 30Y …
NEW – German IFO business climate index deteriorated substantially to 88.5 in June, more than expected. pic.twitter.com/D3DrHGfcbI — Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) June 26, 2023 BREAKING: Euro zone manufacturing PMI falls to a 37-month low of 43.6 pic.twitter.com/Tb0MAsv5uR — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) June 25, 2023
by confoundedinterest17 The good news? Mortgage purchase demand fell only -0.05% from last week. The bad news? Mortgage purchase demand is down -35% since Resident Biden was sworn in. And mortgage refinancing demand is down a whopping -90%. Reason? Mortgage rates are up 128% under Clueless Joe. Mortgage applications increased 0.5 percent from one week …
A leading US medical organization is urging doctors to ditch body mass index (BMI) as the primary measurement for a healthy bodyweight, citing its ‘racist’ roots. The American Medical Association, the largest organization of doctors in the US, said the metric has been used for ‘racist exclusion’ and fails to consider differences in body composition …
In this era, market manipulation via the options market has reached unprecedented extremes: Today is quarterly opex. pic.twitter.com/XZJdj9ChtF — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) June 16, 2023 https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1669638387911860226 BREAKING: Harvey Jones, who has been on the Nvidia, $NVDA, board since 1993, has sold nearly 120,000 shares this week, worth $48.3 million. He has sold more than $76 million …
The market is currently being driven by fear and greed. The Fear & Greed Index is a measure of how fearful or greedy investors are. When the index is high, it means that investors are feeling confident and are more likely to take risks. When the index is low, it means that investors are feeling …
by confoundedinterest17 Like the song “Walk away Renee,” the owners for the San Francisco Union Square Hilton and Park 55 Hotels are walking away from their sizeable loan payments. San Francisco is definitely feeling the blues. But it isn’t just San Francisco. Phil Hall reports that Fitch Ratings reduced its 2023 outlook for the U.S. real estate investment trust …
