In this era, market manipulation via the options market has reached unprecedented extremes:
Today is quarterly opex. pic.twitter.com/XZJdj9ChtF
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) June 16, 2023
Fed: Let's put out a hawkish statement. That should calm things down. After all we have such great credibility with the market.
Markets: pic.twitter.com/gGoNC0nrla
— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) June 16, 2023
BREAKING: Harvey Jones, who has been on the Nvidia, $NVDA, board since 1993, has sold nearly 120,000 shares this week, worth $48.3 million.
He has sold more than $76 million worth of $NVDA shares since the start of the month.
He holds 814,330 shares still. pic.twitter.com/4SMh7iGz0S
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) June 16, 2023
That's the week. pic.twitter.com/UQ1Me57uBl
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) June 16, 2023
Highest greed index in at least two years:t.co/zVlOvnANSK pic.twitter.com/cDHm4Ddkd4
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) June 16, 2023
90% would welcome a reccesion if it meant an actual reset and not just more bailouts 🤡 🌎 pic.twitter.com/8rbiD9CeGB
— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) June 16, 2023
Revisiting Baltic Dry Index’s Message
The BDI peaked on May 10, 2023, which was 25 trading days ago. That should mean that a top is due for the stock market right about now. The BDI then fell hard to a June 2, 2023 low, and losing almost half its value in that decline. The magnitudes of the BDI’s movements do not get equaled by the stock market; that is not how this relationship works. The proper message to take from what the BDI does is to note the direction of the trends and the timing of the turns, rather than trying to formulate an expectation of how much of a move you are entitled to. And then you should also remember that inversions do happen, so one should not fully count on the veracity of the message.
But when it fits with other insights, it can be a nice confirming message. Seasonality analysis shows us that the stock market typically makes a dip in the second half of the month of June, and so starting a dip now as the BDI suggests would fit well with that.