Gold is no longer tethered to the dollar index. It’s been moving sideways from currency markets for months. The break became visible in April when the dollar index fell 6.4% off its March high, but gold kept climbing. It hit $3,288 per ounce on July 1. That is not noise. That is decoupling.
The technicals support it. Gold reclaimed its 50-day base and pushed through resistance near $3,333. The next ceiling sits around $3,440. MACD readings are still negative, but the slope is flattening. RSI bounced above 56. The 200-day moving average is now climbing through $2,931. Price structure is building strength. The chart doesn’t lie.
Central banks bought 1,145 metric tons of gold in 2024. That is the second-highest total in recorded history. Reserve managers in Turkey, China, India, and Russia led the load-up. Private vaults in Zurich received a 50-ton deposit from Tether in June. Retail flows have thinned, but institutional buys are steady. ETF inflows hit $2.04 billion in February alone. The miners are running. IBD now ranks 11 gold producers in the top 50 by earnings momentum.
Dollar weakness is not just a macro talking point. Foreign ownership of U.S. debt fell to 24% in Q1. The last time it was that low was in 2006. Net Treasury inflows collapsed from $82 billion per month in early 2024 to just $44 billion in May 2025. That’s a structural drain. Goldman Sachs is modeling a 25 to 30% drop in dollar valuation through Q1 2026. If those projections land, gold could spike to $6,000. Not fantasy. Not fear. Just math.
Frank Holmes said it in June. “Negative real rates and M2 growth create a 6 to 8 week lag before gold absorbs liquidity.” That lag is now visible. We’re inside the absorption phase. And price is not waiting on confirmation. That’s how 2007 started. Gold broke free before the dollar cracked. History rhymes.
Sources
https://blog.oneuptrader.com/analysis/technical-analysis/gold-technical-analysis-1-july-2025/
https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2025/06/gold-monthly-forecast-july-2025/230389
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-could-happen-gold-price-july-2025/
https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/us-dollar-gold-prices-future-outlook-2025/