Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Federal financial flow charts reveal domestic household stock ownership has breached its highest level in two decades… Retail accounts scooped up an additional $4 trillion year-to-date, following a massive $10 trillion insertion across 2025… Total household equity dominance now commands 40% of the entire U.S. financial market, outpacing all institutional blocks… Foreign investment desks hold …
They keep doing the same things hoping for a different result. Interesting how these big numbers keep showing up right when things look frothy. This pattern feels familiar, wonder how long it can go. The Federal Reserve is still buying T-Bills despite markets hitting new all-time-highs every week. Jerome Powell said he would only be …
Bonds do not move with stock prices like shares do. If the stock market crashes, Trump’s bond holdings (especially the many municipal bonds and U.S. Treasuries) should stay much steadier. The issuers — cities, states, school districts, or the U.S. government — still have to pay the same fixed interest on schedule and repay the …
BREAKING: The Bank of Japan’s total assets fell -$98 billion in Q1 2026, to $4.14 trillion, the lowest since Q2 2020. Since the Q1 2024 peak, the BoJ has reduced its balance sheet by -$590 billion, or -12.6%. Japanese government bond holdings fell -$84 billion in Q1, the largest quarterly decline since QT began. This …
BREAKING: 🚨 Federal Reserve purchases of short duration Treasury Bills now exceeds the height of the 2020 pandemic. Jerome Powell is currently holding $329B short duration T-Bills on the Fed's balance sheet, exceeding the previous crisis peak of $325B. This marks the first… https://t.co/fvDjn6VCQb pic.twitter.com/v4a9OZj3Zb — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) February 27, 2026 Yup, REPO jumped to …
#Gold long-term structure suggests much higher levels ahead. pic.twitter.com/AXOuccKD7f — Gold Predictors (@GoldPredictors) February 16, 2026 As illustrated in these MacroMicro charts, China’s holdings of US Treasuries have continued to fall.Given the steady issuance of new securities by the US government, China’s share of total UST holdings has dropped even more — to 7%, a …
Japan can’t print fast enough to save the party this time. BOJ Is Said to Start Selling ETF Holdings as Soon as January Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/m19QDzvpYS — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) January 16, 2026 JAPAN WILL CRASH THE MARKET IN 3 DAYS!! They’re currently sitting on $10 TRILLION in debt. Every Japanese government bond yield just hit …
Bitcoin stacking company Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), which has just rebranded from its former name of MicroStrategy, has reported a net loss of $670.8 million for the fourth quarter. The company reported fourth quarter revenue of $120.7 million, a 3% year on year fall. Meanwhile it said it had bought an additional 218,887 Bitcoin, bringing its holdings …
Yes ,and the trend goes even deeper.As Japan and China reduce their U.S. Treasury exposure,their reserves are quietly re-anchoring elsewhere.The correlation between Treasuries and global reserves has broken,flows are now moving through Chinese bonds and ultimately into Gold,… pic.twitter.com/0wwRIOnF8P — Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy (@Macrobysunil) October 23, 2025 The world is clearly splitting into …
Tricolor Auto Holdings just blew up, and the fallout is spreading fast. What was once a quiet giant in subprime car lending has collapsed into Chapter 7 bankruptcy. Cars are gone, loans are unpaid, and billions in debt are floating in the system with nowhere to land. But the real danger isn’t the bankruptcy itself, …
AAA bonds rated just two months ago are crashing, with lower tranches nearly worthless. Subprime auto debt tied to fraud is imploding while rating agencies keep pretending nothing is wrong. First blood….. https://t.co/LEFhuiY4JY — Bogachan Ozdemir (@Bogachan_1971) September 11, 2025 🚨Tricolor’s AAA bonds (rated 2 months ago July ’25) just plunged—par to 78¢, lower tranches …
Interesting read. China has been hoarding gold and adding to it for 10 consecutive months. Meanwhile their treasury holdings have dropped. pic.twitter.com/xh9IdW8iYE — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) September 10, 2025 BREAKING: Global broad money supply rose +9.3% YoY in July, to a record $140 trillion. This metric covers 169 countries and territories, representing 99% of global …
Trump has bought at least $103.7 million in bonds while in office, including debt from Meta, Qualcomm, Home Depot, and T-Mobile, according to a White House disclosure dated August 12, 2025: “Trump reported no sales.” https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/trump-embarks-on-104-million-bond-buying-spree-while-in-office/ar-AA1KPNzK 👀 pic.twitter.com/lQtyLDsbQ3 — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) August 20, 2025 Unlike every modern president before him, Trump didn’t divest …
Gold is no longer tethered to the dollar index. It’s been moving sideways from currency markets for months. The break became visible in April when the dollar index fell 6.4% off its March high, but gold kept climbing. It hit $3,288 per ounce on July 1. That is not noise. That is decoupling. The technicals …
This isn’t just about higher borrowing costs; it’s a signal that inflation and debt are forcing a reckoning. Given the recent House-passed tax bill that could balloon the U.S. debt further, and the bond market’s reaction with yields hitting highs not seen since 2007, the pressure is on. NEW INFLATIONARY REGIME HAS BEGUN! This is …
Gold (and central banks) know that neither Congress nor the White House has any plan in place to cut off relentless peacetime, "non-recession" deficit spending. Source: CBO pic.twitter.com/Mg8H8x8yDf — David Sommers (@dgsommersmkts) May 5, 2025 Heading into 2025, $GLD was underperforming the S&P 500 since 2020 by ~10%. However, as uncertainty has risen, $GLD is …
by Mike Maharrey For the first December since 2019, gold-backed ETFs globally reported net inflows of gold. Asian funds drove the global increase in ETF gold holdings to close out 2024. On the year, ETF gold holdings dropped modestly by 6.8 tons, but assets under management (AUM) rose by 26 percent to a record high …
Booking Holdings misses. Stock down 7%. The consumer is dead. None of this should be surprising after the inflation we had. Futures getting slammed pic.twitter.com/WPxz1d289n — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 2, 2024 The 10 year yield breaks 4%. They told us things would boom if interest rates dropped. Wrong again as always. What the Fed …
by confoundedinterest17 What’s it going to be? Mortgage rate increases or balance sheet (MBS) reductions? Since the Covid outbreak in early 2020, The Fed went wild with rate cuts and massive and unpredented balance sheet expansion. Let’s look at The Fed’s puchase of agency MBS and mortgage rates. From 2020 2022, The Fed continued to buy …
Nautilus Holdings Ltd, a Bermuda-chartered company that leases container ships, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in New York. The company, burdened with approximately $770 million in debt, sought this protection to bring creditors into a single forum for negotiations. Nautilus operates a fleet of 16 container ships, each with capacities of up to 7,000 …
via notayesmanseconomics The last few days have brought something rather significant in the financial economy of Japan. It was highlighted this morning by the Ministry of Finance issuing some ten-year Japanese Government Bonds at a yield of 1.05% on average. So Japan has issued a decent tranche of benchmark ten-year bonds (2.6 trillion Yen) at …
by confoundedinterest17 President Obama selected Slow Joe Biden as his Vice President because 1) he was white and 2) an alleged foreign policy wizard in The Senate. Between Afghanistan, Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and every other foreign policy disaster under his leadership, I am beginning to doubt Biden’s foreign policy acumen. For example … For the 9th …
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries surged to a record in February, its fifth straight monthly rise, Treasury Department data released on Wednesday showed. Holdings totaled $7.965 trillion, up from a revised $7.945 trillion in January. Treasuries owned by foreigners rose 8.7% from a year earlier. Holdings of Treasuries grew the most …
BREAKING: Michael Burry has updated his portfolio. He has closed his $47 million bet against semiconductors, $SOXX. Holdings now:1. Alibaba, $BABA: 6.15%2. JD, $JD: 6.11%3. HCA Healthcare, $HCA: 5.72% 4. Oracle, $ORCL: 5.57% — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) February 14, 2024 h/t DesmondMilesDant
The looming threat of Evergrande’s tumultuous collapse raises significant apprehension among global investors amid China’s economic challenges. In a bid to avert imminent liquidation, the world’s most indebted property developer, China Evergrande Group, is urgently presenting a last-minute debt restructuring proposal before a crucial Hong Kong court hearing on Monday. The defaulted company faces mounting …
(Kitco News) China has been on a full-out gold shopping spree — topping up its gold reserves each month for the last 12 months. However, the official numbers are not even close to the actual amounts China is buying, according to Dominic Frisby, Founder of FlyingFrisby.com. The latest data out of China showed that its …
The current scenario paints a stark picture of the market dynamics, as hedge funds find themselves in a position where net exposure to the “magnificent 7” has surged from 12% at the beginning of the year to a staggering 99%. This dramatic shift suggests a significant reduction in the number of buyers. High-profile investors like …
Total holdings of US Treasuries by China are at the lowest level since 2009 👀 pic.twitter.com/UEv2v5SPj3 — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) November 12, 2023 Japanese investors are selling US corporate debt at a record pace 👀 pic.twitter.com/YxKZqSCuJe — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) November 12, 2023 Investor actions with U.S. assets are raising alarms. Recent data …
THE TRUTH ABOUT THE CHINESE SELLING OF US TREASURIES Out of the reported 22-23% drawdown in the Chinese holdings of US Treasuries over the past 2 years, around 15-16%-point is driven by mark to market effects. Don't listen to people trying to claim otherwise. Yes, China is… pic.twitter.com/kj2kFjz5eW — Andreas Steno Larsen (@AndreasSteno) October 23, …
This is not sustainable. The US added – checks notes – $275 billion in debt in, uh, ONE DAY Total US debt is now $33.442 trillion, hit $33 trillion just 2 weeks ago, and on pace to rise by $1 trillion in 1 month. WTF is going onhttps://t.co/tOrhqmkFXL pic.twitter.com/w3qnBAIfLh — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 3, 2023 …