BREAKING: January CPI inflation falls to 2.4%, below expectations of 2.5%.
Core CPI inflation fell to 2.5%, in-line with expectations of 2.5%.
Core CPI inflation is now at its lowest level since March 2021.
Odds of further interest rate cuts are back on the rise.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 13, 2026
🚨 TRADERS PRICE 50% CHANCE OF THIRD FED RATE CUT THIS YEAR
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 13, 2026
🚨 January inflation comes in LOWER than expected thanks to President Trump:
"Year-over-year at 2.4%" pic.twitter.com/r1GAuCzx3p
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) February 13, 2026
Core CPI was +0.295% in January, (3.6% annualized) slightly below some expectations.
CPI rose 2.5% over the last 12 months and 2.5% over the last six months, annualized https://t.co/ZKoVpaDqPr pic.twitter.com/ITT3Vg1VbX
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) February 13, 2026
Consumer Price Index Summary
Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until
8:30 a.m. (ET) Friday, February 13, 2026 USDL-26-0186
Technical information: (202) 691-7000 * cpi_info@bls.gov * http://www.bls.gov/cpi
Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – JANUARY 2026
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in
January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4
percent before seasonal adjustment.
The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in January and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The
food index increased 0.2 percent over the month as did the food at home index, while the food away from home index rose
0.1 percent. These increases were partially offset by the index for energy, which fell 1.5 percent in January.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in January. Indexes that increased over the month include
airline fares, personal care, recreation, medical care, and communication. The indexes for used cars and trucks,
household furnishings and operations, and motor vehicle insurance were among the major indexes that decreased in
January.
The all items index rose 2.4 percent for the 12 months ending January, after rising 2.7 percent for the 12 months
ending December. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.5 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index
decreased 0.1 percent for the 12 months ending January. The food index increased 2.9 percent over the last year.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
Per Grok: The odds of a Fed rate cut have jumped following the January CPI data. Inflation at 2.4% (below the 2.5% forecast) and core at 2.5% signal cooling prices, boosting chances for cuts as early as March—markets had priced in low odds before, but this eases pressure on the Fed.