Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
This is why I don't just watch the index.$XLE Energy has been grinding higher all year. A big part of that? Oil spiking on geopolitical risk. That's been the fuel.$XLF Financials, the opposite. Broke its trendline, selling off hard, sitting near the lows. The question worth… pic.twitter.com/WqwP0g9dus — Mike (@MarketMike) March 19, 2026
The headlines say inflation is cooling. The official number now sits around 2.4% year over year, the slowest pace since mid-2025, and many economists are celebrating it as proof that price pressures are fading. But if you dig beneath that single number, something very different is happening. And it is not small. It is massive. …
BREAKING: January CPI inflation falls to 2.4%, below expectations of 2.5%. Core CPI inflation fell to 2.5%, in-line with expectations of 2.5%. Core CPI inflation is now at its lowest level since March 2021. Odds of further interest rate cuts are back on the rise. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 13, 2026 🚨 TRADERS …
The dollar index bounces as fears of a yen bailout ease and euro cools down. via Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/07NO9OTEFf — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) January 27, 2026 Europeans are piling into US stocks: European investors now own a record $10.4 trillion in US stocks. Ownership has surged +$4.9 trillion, or +91%, over the last 3 years. Denmark, …
The economic data released this morning, July 17, 2025 at 08:30am ET, paints a clear picture: inflation is not accelerating. It’s cooling, and the Fed has breathing room. Import prices rose just 0.1% month-over-month in June, with the year-over-year rate at -0.2%. That’s deflationary. Export prices jumped 0.5% MoM and 2.8% YoY, but that’s external-facing. …
The typical U.S. homebuyer puts 15% down, essentially unchanged from 15.1% last year. FHA and VA loans are becoming more common as the housing market tilts toward buyers. Just over 15% of mortgaged homebuyers use an FHA loan, and just over 7% use a VA loan, up from last year. 31% of buyers are paying …
🇺🇸 INFLATION FOR MARCH JUST CAME IN BELOW EXPECTATIONS US CPI for February just came in at +2.4% YoY below expectations of +2.5% YoY pic.twitter.com/poThrsLSWZ — Evan (@StockMKTNewz) April 10, 2025 BREAKING: Inflation in the US is now down 60 basis points in 3 months. pic.twitter.com/xeWfmv5oh3 — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 10, 2025
Nvidia Mania. RECORD distance from 36 month moving average unwinding. Peak FOMO most likely behind us. Lots will get trapped.#nvidia #nvda #capitalrotation pic.twitter.com/6InMkiQ97i — Patrick Karim (@badcharts1) November 2, 2024 Who want's to address the elephant in the room? Forecast added. pic.twitter.com/pXhe3FMeAi — The Great Martis (@great_martis) November 2, 2024 Speculators boost bullish bets on …
Moody’s Analytics latest data unveils a significant shift in the U.S. housing market, with the once-scorching pace of home price growth finally showing signs of tempering. The report highlights a nuanced landscape, with some regions experiencing continued ascent while others face declines, reflecting the complex interplay of affordability and demand. Key points: Moody’s Analytics House …
by confoundedinterest17 As M2 Money growth has stalled, we are seeing inflation cool a bit. Core inflation YoY is now down to 4.8% (still >2x Fed target). The good news? REAL average hourly earnings YoY is finally positive for the second time under Bidenomics. It is now 1.2% YoY. Too bad rent CPI, typically the …
CPI 0.2% M/M, Exp. 0.3%CPI Core 0.2% M/M, Exp. 0.3% CPI 3.0% Y/Y, Exp. 3.1%, CPI Core 4.8% Y/Y, Exp. 5.0% — zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 12, 2023 The Fed’s inflation job is not done yet Despite headline inflation trending lower, sticky inflation is still at levels last seen in 1982 pic.twitter.com/Hk51pNGs2B — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) …
by confoundedinterest17 Okay, Joe Biden was generally regarded as the dumbest member of the US Senate and mean-spirited (I won’t repeat podcaster Joe Rogan’s opinion of Biden). Now we realize how brazenly corrupt Biden is (taking bribes from China and Ukraine to influence American poliicies). Not only is Biden an attrocious human being, but his …