Core Inflation Cools To 4.8% In June >2x Target, REAL Wage Growth Finally Goes Positive (1.2% YoY) While RENT Inflation Still Roaring At 8% YoY (Taylor Rule Now Implies A Fed Target Rate Of 10.42%)

July 12, 2023 9:37 am by Alex

As M2 Money growth has stalled, we are seeing inflation cool a bit. Core inflation YoY is now down to 4.8% (still >2x Fed target).

The good news? REAL average hourly earnings YoY is finally positive for the second time under Bidenomics. It is now 1.2% YoY. Too bad rent CPI, typically the largest expense for Americans, is still up 8% YoY.

The Taylor Rule, given 4.8% core inflation, gives us a Fed Funds Target rate of 10.42%. So, yes, it looks like Powell and the Gang have more work to do.