implies

Energy stocks are 5% below highs, indicating oil’s potential return of 48%, impacting Fed policy and financial markets. Rate hikes probability decreases, but odds of rate cuts drop, with no cuts until May 2024.

Energy stocks are only 5% away from recent highs. If historical correlations matter, it is hard to believe oil won't follow the same path. That alone would imply a 48% return from its current levels. As a crucial contributor to …

READ MORE

Debit Balances in Customers’ Securities Margin Accounts increased by $37,058 million, or 5.75% from May to June–the biggest jump since December 2022. This implies that customers are borrowing more money from their brokers to buy securities on margin.

by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.finra.org/rules-guidance/key-topics/margin-accounts/margin-statistics Source: https://www.finra.org/sites/default/files/2021-03/margin-statistics.xlsx Wut mean?: According to FINRA Rule 4521(d), FINRA member firms with customer margin accounts must report by the last business day of each month: Total debit balances in securities margin accounts. Total free credit balances …

READ MORE

Core Inflation Cools To 4.8% In June >2x Target, REAL Wage Growth Finally Goes Positive (1.2% YoY) While RENT Inflation Still Roaring At 8% YoY (Taylor Rule Now Implies A Fed Target Rate Of 10.42%)

by confoundedinterest17 As M2 Money growth has stalled, we are seeing inflation cool a bit. Core inflation YoY is now down to 4.8% (still >2x Fed target). The good news? REAL average hourly earnings YoY is finally positive for the …

READ MORE