Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
“Gotcha headline with no supporting data” 🙄 Here’s Redfin’s “record rate” – a total of an entire 10 year study. Super. No doubt prices are coming off, but cmon man …. This is just lazy. pic.twitter.com/1oZkLd8EhG — Matt Carrell (@MatthewCarrell) April 28, 2026 Worst March numbers in 10 years. pic.twitter.com/AP94gn2OK8 — Travis Rothell (@TRothell62855) April …
March 20 (Reuters) – United Airlines (UAL) CEO Scott Kirby said on Friday the airline will cancel about 5% of this year’s planned flights in the short term, as jet fuel prices surge due to the Middle East conflict. “If prices stayed at this level, it would mean an extra $11 billion in annual expense …
The bond market is getting twitchy. Over the past 20 years, when credit spreads blew out but the S&P 500 wasn't even beyond a pullback yet, it was 3-for-3 in bear markets. h/t @sentimentrader pic.twitter.com/xiba9GU3z2 — Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) March 17, 2026 The market is green today and nobody's talking about the sector that refused …
Over half of Americans say health care, a weeklong vacation and a new car are unaffordable, per ABC — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) March 17, 2026 JUST IN: US 30-Year Mortgage Rate jumps to 6.86%, the highest level since November byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts Another out of context quote. Full quote shows Hassett saying this is “going ahead of …
Something strange is happening across the American economy right now. Not one single dramatic collapse. Not one headline catastrophe. Instead, pressure is building in several completely different corners of the system at the exact same time. Transportation. Consumer debt. Labor shortages. Monetary policy. Individually these developments might look manageable. But when you line them up …
U.S. Treasury Secretary on Strait of Hormuz: "The Iranian ships have been getting out already, and we’ve let that happen to supply the rest of the world." pic.twitter.com/TwK7tIFHV2 — Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 16, 2026 BREAKING: US oil prices extend losses to drop below $95/barrel, now down -8% in 12 hours. pic.twitter.com/bQfzNvx5AY — The …
Nonfarm payrolls in February fell by 92,000, compared to the estimate for 50,000 and below the downwardly revised January total of 126,000. It was the third time in five months that the economy lost jobs. Health care, the primary growth driver in payrolls, saw a loss of 28,000 due largely to a strike at Kaiser …
IRAN CONFLICT MAY DELAY FED RATE CUTS Janet Yellen says the Iran conflict is likely to slow U.S. growth and push inflation higher, making the Federal Reserve more cautious on cutting rates. Rising oil prices—especially if disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persists—could keep… — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 2, 2026
Nearly half of Americans in a new WalletHub survey said their household can’t manage more debt, while more than one-third said they expect to have higher balances by the end of 2026. Fifty-three percent of households said the struggle the most with credit card debt, followed by mortgages at 20% and student loans with 11%. …
So we are in a position where : -COMEX going bust-AI bubble collapse after NVDA super earnings-BTC retests 4Q21 peak on ~69k$ and starts new wave down-Private Equity credit going bust-Housing market tanking-China entering next wave down after 2,5Ys of bear market rally to… pic.twitter.com/jl9ZJ8Dp9R — GregTheAnalyst (@Analyst_G) February 25, 2026 🚨 Google searches for …
".. lenders have stopped pretending .. .. The delinquency rate for office loans in commercial mortgage-backed securities climbed to a record 12.34% in January, the highest level since .. 2000." 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/d3N92Hr4YR — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) February 17, 2026 Lenders to commercial real-estate owners are reaching the breaking point, calling in tens of billions …
The Dutch House of Representatives on Thursday voted to pass the Actual Return in Box 3 Act (Wet werkelijk rendement box 3), a reform that will tax residents at a flat rate of 36% on the actual returns they earn from savings and investments, effective January 1, 2028. The bill replaces a system that taxed …
BREAKING: January CPI inflation falls to 2.4%, below expectations of 2.5%. Core CPI inflation fell to 2.5%, in-line with expectations of 2.5%. Core CPI inflation is now at its lowest level since March 2021. Odds of further interest rate cuts are back on the rise. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 13, 2026 🚨 TRADERS …
9 large companies filed for bankruptcy in the US last week. This brings the 3-week average to 6, the highest rate since the 2020 pandemic byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts Mega bankruptcies becoming more common among large firms There’s an ongoing surge in mega bankruptcies (large companies with significant assets) across the U.S., driven by rising interest rates, …
Fifty-one House members and nine senators have decided not to run for re-election, the most retirements from Congress this century. Some feel they’ve hit an appropriate retirement age. Others want to tend to their health or their families. Yet more are leaving because they don’t like the workplace. Add it all together, and members of …
Private credit firms sold a record amount of debt to themselves last year as the buyout sector’s slowdown pushed them to find new ways to generate cash from loans to companies owned by private equity. Private lenders struck so-called continuation deals worth $15bn globally in 2025, up from almost $4bn the previous year, according to …
Will the stock market drop after the rate decision? Central bank leaders will announce their January interest rate decision at 2 p.m. ET. The meeting follows weeks of political pressure from the Trump administration and a recently announced Department of Justice probe.
This study updates and supplements previous U.S. crime trends reports by the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) with data through December 2025. It examines yearly and monthly rates of 13 violent, property, and drug offenses reported to police in 40 large American cities that have consistently reported monthly data over the past eight years. The …
U.S. car loan applications are being rejected at the highest rate in more than a decade 🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/eGVthWpyRJ — Barchart (@Barchart) January 25, 2026 Record missed car payments are fueling concerns about the health of subprime auto lenders, with recent high‑profile bankruptcies and elevated delinquencies suggesting systemic credit stress beyond just rejection rates. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-14/record-missed-car-payments-fuel-angst-over-subprime-auto-lenders
“Every time the Unemployment Rate crosses its 36-month moving average from BELOW, a recession sets in.” https://t.co/3rknCG3YUH — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) January 18, 2026 “Private credit investors pull $7bn from Wall Street’s biggest funds” Fewer eyes on this story if it drops on the Saturday of a long holiday weekend??? “Private credit investors pulled …
SOFR reflects the cost of overnight borrowing collateralized by Treasuries. When SOFR drops, it usually signals: Excess cash in the repo market Lower demand for overnight borrowing More Treasury collateral available Money‑market funds accepting lower yields ecb also already started QEhttps://t.co/xcMp97Zo8Z — Filip Spasevski (@FilipsMoneyX) January 13, 2026
For private sector jobs, a low(er-)hire, but (still) low-fire market: • Vacancy rate ticked down to 4.5% in November, matching a cycle low • Hiring rate ticked down to 3.5% in November, matching a cycle low • The job-quitting rate ticked up one tenth to 2.2% (off of a cycle… pic.twitter.com/EeKTPGbVy9 — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) …
LARGEST FED FUND FUTURES TRADE IN HISTORY 🚨 A bond trader just made the largest fed fund futures bet in history. The trade was a total of 200,000 contracts for January which amounts to a total risk of $8 million per basis point move. pic.twitter.com/R0sV78VAGB — Barchart (@Barchart) January 7, 2026 Someone just sold 200,000 …
This is the part where everyone points to spending and jobs like proof everything’s fine, right before both roll over at the same time. THE STOCK MARKET CRASH IS SET UP PERFECTLY! 1. Consumers are still spending money they don’t have. – Consumer spending makes up 70% of GDP – But personal savings are near …
by Martin Armstrong Birthrates are rapidly declining across the West primarily due to economic factors. Over 163 million new lives emerged in 2025, far surpassing the 63 million deaths. The countries with the least tend to produce the most children. Over the past year, Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chad, and Somalia all experienced population growths …
Everything’s lining up for a Q1 shock. THE YEN PARADOX 82,640 contracts betting against the yen. Second highest since July 2024. The Bank of Japan just confessed this morning they have barely begun. After hiking to a 30 YEAR HIGH at 0.75 percent, the yen did not strengthen. It collapsed to 157.77. Finance Minister Katayama …
BREAKING 🚨: U.S. Treasury Market 10-Year Treasuries suffered their largest delivery fail rate in 8 years 🤯📉 pic.twitter.com/xph8wivnfc — Barchart (@Barchart) December 28, 2025 $30.5 billion worth of trades in the most recently issued 10‑year Treasury note failed to settle during the week ending December 10. This is the highest level of delivery fails since …
US ADVANCE Q3 GDP +4.3% (CONSENSUS +3.3%) — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) December 23, 2025 Huge GDP beat.No inflation.Best economy in history.Cut rates to 0️⃣. Too much winning. — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) December 23, 2025 🇺🇸 Morning Economic Data: *Q3 GDP: Beat 🟢*Q3 Consumer Spending: Beat 🟢*Durable Goods Orders: Miss 🔴*Core Durable Goods Orders: Miss 🔴 Will …
No way this is true. Tariff rate for a doll is 25%, so $800 tariff would be on a doll worth$3,200. — Jackie Staaf (@StaafJackie) December 22, 2025 pic.twitter.com/3QiXj2zlCu — Mahovolich (@mahovolich) December 21, 2025
Anyone paying attention knows this is cooked. Prediction markets have no come back down on future rate cuts. Now a 25% chance of a cut in January — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) December 18, 2025 So… CPI is down to 2.7% because they stopped measuring everything except gasoline and cars… 🤪 WTF is going on here? …