Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
BREAKING: Tucker Carlson hits all-time high in the 2028 Presidential Election odds, as he teases a potential run. 7% chance. pic.twitter.com/RZbGz7SMmK — Polymarket (@Polymarket) May 1, 2026
BREAKING: Odds Democrats win the Presidency in 2028 surge to an all-time high. pic.twitter.com/y7QAGlTKAd — Kalshi (@Kalshi) April 15, 2026 View post on imgur.com
This is the MOST MANIPULATED market in stock market history. — Midas (@midascabal) March 10, 2026 Crude Oil has to be impossible to trade right now Red = Transportation Secretary Chris Wright says the Navy escorted a ship through the Strait of Hormuz, -8.3% Blue = Social Media post deleted, +5.49% Green = repost below, …
May the Lord bless and protect this man. The best thing Obama did… pic.twitter.com/km108bVcB2 — Ellen/SeaSandII (@EllenMomGUM) February 19, 2026
BREAKING: January CPI inflation falls to 2.4%, below expectations of 2.5%. Core CPI inflation fell to 2.5%, in-line with expectations of 2.5%. Core CPI inflation is now at its lowest level since March 2021. Odds of further interest rate cuts are back on the rise. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 13, 2026 🚨 TRADERS …
The odds of a US government shutdown on 14th Feb just dropped to 25%. Good for markets. pic.twitter.com/sLM0ferdLk — Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) February 13, 2026 The drop in shutdown odds to 25% on markets like Polymarket stems from the current funding lapse affecting only DHS, with minimal broader impact. Prediction criteria require a new OPM …
Despite Trump's ambitions, the odds of the U.S. acquiring any part of Greenland are declining. 21% chance.https://t.co/GGe6isYEMg — Polymarket (@Polymarket) February 2, 2026 US still seeks takeover of Danish Arctic island, Greenland’s PM Nielsen says Greenland mental health survey reflects anxiety over US pressure Neilsen calls situation ‘completely unacceptable’ COPENHAGEN, Feb 2 (Reuters) – Greenland …
Blue wave watch: Democrat flips Trump +17 Texas Senate seat in 32-point swing Democratic candidate Taylor Rehmet has won a special election for Texas State Senate District 9 in Tarrant County — a seat Donald Trump carried by 17 points in November 2024, per The Downballot. As I’m writing this, approximately 99% of the vote …
Currently a 77% chance on Polymarket. This morning it was 9%. Looks like something has been set in motion in Minneapolis today. https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31 If SNAP benefits are not paid again, in addition to many stores already being cleaned out by Winter Storm Fern, this can also be very bad for grocery store supply chains. h/t …
Thomas Massie’s political snapshot 📸 pic.twitter.com/UxeHd76b3Y — Politician Pages (@politicianpages) January 19, 2026 Proud to be voting for him again! https://t.co/oQYpwal0nm — Kacee Allen (@KaceeRAllen) January 19, 2026
BREAKING: Odds Trump is impeached again are at an all-time high pic.twitter.com/lVwqa8Jc5o — Kalshi (@Kalshi) November 28, 2025 https://kalshi.com/markets/kximpeach/president-impeached
(Bloomberg) — Applications for US unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to the lowest since mid-April, remaining relatively subdued amid economic uncertainty. Initial claims decreased by 6,000 to 216,000 in the week ended Nov. 22. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 225,000 applications. Continuing claims, a proxy for the number …
🇺🇸US PPI came in at 2.6% Expected – 2.7% This means core inflation is cooling down. Chance for Fed to cut interest rates goes up. — Ted (@TedPillows) November 25, 2025 Polymarket now has Fed cutting in December at 86%, big V from 20-% a week ago 👀 pic.twitter.com/pDQkswroxv — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) November 25, 2025
BREAKING: Odds the House passes a bill to release the Epstein files surge to 98% pic.twitter.com/NDNUiJG2Hv — Kalshi (@Kalshi) November 17, 2025
https://t.co/WB4W0amlqs — Kalshi (@Kalshi) November 12, 2025 Trump is upside down on every issue: -Epstein: -39-Foreign Policy: -8-Trade/Tariffs: -17-Economy: -18-Immigration: -5 pic.twitter.com/ybW4uKqHUb — Maine (@TheMaineWonk) November 13, 2025 🚨BREAKING: There is now an 85% CHANCE that the government shuts down AGAIN in just 2 months. pic.twitter.com/sRHoS93oGy — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) November 13, 2025 President Trump …
They keep telling everyone inflation is “cooling” while the numbers keep jumping the moment you look closely. This is why the hawks on the Fed are screaming no rate cut. Most recent food inflation data from Consumer Edge. Highly respected. Food inflation costs are surging. Up from 2.8% to 3.2% as of November 9th. We …
https://t.co/uZpnABvHb2 — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) November 7, 2025 Reporter: What do you make of this new Democrat offer? Graham: Horrible. I'm not going to keep giving taxpayer dollars to the five largest healthcare insurance companies under Obamacare to get the government open. pic.twitter.com/Nn3m7VqOrh — Acyn (@Acyn) November 7, 2025 *REPUBLICANS REJECT DEMOCRATS' OFFER TO END SHUTDOWN …
December rate cut odds are ticking lower after Fed member warns of stagflation #MacroEdge pic.twitter.com/QHlkPIADLo — MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) October 31, 2025 Fed’s Logan: WE FIND IT DIFFICULT TO CUT RATES AGAIN IN DECEMBER INFLATION IS TOO HIGH INFLATION TAKING TOO LONG TO RETURN TO THE 2% TARGET We are being primed for no rate cut …
🚨 2026 RECESSION ODDS UP TO 49% pic.twitter.com/sb2XNapYJW — Micah (@micah_erfan) October 28, 2025 So if we layoff everyone to increase margins this year, who will have money left to buy your products next year? https://t.co/1h0rTviPXw pic.twitter.com/2kAtdSgs2B — Boring_Business (@BoringBiz_) October 28, 2025 https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1983199726452494695 The labor market is clearly weakening. Recent layoffs: 1. UPS: 48,000 …
https://polymarket.com/event/new-york-city-mayoral-election?tid=1761673595743
Money market funds just hit an all-time high of $7.4 TRILLION 99% chance the Fed cuts rates in 6 days. Rate cuts will push treasury holders to seek more risk, driving liquidity into Bitcoin and other assets Liquidity tsunami incoming ‼️ Money market funds just hit an all-time high of $7.4 TRILLION 99% chance the …
BREAKING: The odds Democrats sweep 4 key elections, including the NYC Mayor race, are surging to 78% pic.twitter.com/PSl25JTYXQ — Kalshi (@Kalshi) October 21, 2025 Zohran Mamdani chances of winning New York City’s upcoming mayoral election have hit a new high, betting odds show. According to online gambling website Polymarket, a platform where users can place …
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-national-guard-portland-appeals-court/ Washington — A federal appeals court on Monday cleared the way for the Trump administration to mobilize and deploy members of the Oregon National Guard to Portland while a legal challenge moves forward. A divided panel of three judges on U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit agreed to freeze a lower court …
🇺🇸 TRUMP: “BEST WAY TO END THE WAR IS A FULL PEACE DEAL – NOT JUST A CEASEFIRE” “A great and very successful day in Alaska! The meeting with Putin went very well, as did a late night phone call with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine. It was determined by all that the best way to… …
Oil is in free fall lately. $58 today. This is one of the first signs of a recession. We’re getting to price levels near what it costs producers to pull it out of the ground. On the bright side it helps with inflation because it’s a major input cost for mfg. pic.twitter.com/NIdahDZX6m — QE Infinity …
According to Polymarket, recession odds have climbed back near their April 9th peak. GDP Leaked? pic.twitter.com/3O5XkEYKyU — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) April 29, 2025 $2,900 tariff on a $2,100 purchase from Hong Kong. You can kiss the global economy goodbye. Unavoidable now. Even if we stopped all of this tomorrow. Will take a very long time to …
Polymarket currently has odds at 30% for a U.S.-China trade deal before June—who’s out here betting Yes with both sides not even talking ATM? pic.twitter.com/sWgxVyeSvG — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) April 24, 2025 China considering removing tariffs on industrial chemicals like ethane: BBG https://t.co/8vpZMvBck8 — zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 25, 2025 Trump: "it would be physically impossible to …
by Michael Is the U.S. economy headed for a recession? Nobody can deny that consumer confidence is plummeting, home sales are way down, mass layoffs are being conducted all over the nation, thousands of stores are closing, and a global trade war has erupted. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is currently projecting that the U.S. economy …
via creditbubblebulletin: Somehow, it staged a remarkable comeback. “Transitory” was spoken five times during the post-meeting press conference, twice by Chair Powell: “As I’ve mentioned, it can be the case that it’s appropriate sometimes to look through inflation if it’s going to go away quickly without action by us, if it’s transitory. And that can …
Another Biden Miracle: Odds rising on a recession as defaults soar 50% 🤯 https://t.co/h4xXSsJVzE — Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) December 30, 2024 Volatility-based breakout signals risk-off scenario, reminiscent of COVID-19 and 2008 crises. A breakout pattern based on volatility has just triggered a warning signal similar to the one observed during the COVID-19 crash. …