Food inflation is surging, up from 2.8% to 3.2% as of November 9. December rate cut odds are dropping fast.

They keep telling everyone inflation is “cooling” while the numbers keep jumping the moment you look closely.

The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of economy-wide inflation, increased 0.3 percent from July 2025 to August 2025 and was up 2.9 percent from August 2024.

Food prices rose faster than overall inflation. The CPI for all food increased 0.4 percent from July 2025 to August 2025. Food prices in August 2025 were 3.2 percent higher than in August 2024.

The level of food price inflation varies depending on whether the food was purchased for consumption at home or away from home:

  • The food-at-home (grocery store or supermarket food purchases) CPI increased 0.4 percent from July 2025 to August 2025 and was 2.7 percent higher than in August 2024.
  • The food-away-from-home (restaurant and other foodservice purchases) CPI increased 0.3 percent from July 2025 to August 2025 and was 3.9 percent higher than in August 2024.

https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings