Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by Michael We are watching a slow-motion train wreck play out right in front of our eyes, and nobody can stop it. Every single day that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, commercial oil inventories will get even lower and national strategic oil reserves will get even lower. Right now the global economy is using more …
Drywall prices going up so fast, home Depot just slaps a sticker over the old price. byu/fart400 ininflation
If AI driven layoffs keep spreading across major firms, the real risk is no longer just job loss but a broader spillover into housing demand and consumer stability. You are already seeing early stress signals in labor data and forced restructuring across sectors that used to feel stable. Most people are not prepared for what …
Looks like we’re going in. Or it’s just a bluff to get Iran to negotiate https://t.co/WbIZWsLZLy — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) March 23, 2026 Defense officials told The New York Times that senior military leaders are considering deploying a brigade combat team from the U.S. Army’s 82nd Airborne Division, about 3000 paratroopers assigned to the Immediate …
Something extremely ominous appears to be unfolding right now. Headlines coming out over the past 24 hours suggest that several major fault lines in the global system are starting to crack at the same time. The war in the Middle East is rapidly escalating into something much bigger. Iran is now openly threatening to nuke …
A Pakistani soldier has raised Pakistan’s flag on a post seized from the Afghan Taliban. pic.twitter.com/nUj4EOdiZH — Talha Nizamani 🇺🇸 (@talhanizamani00) February 26, 2026 🇦🇫🇵🇰 The Taliban just launched military attacks on Pakistani army positions. This comes after Pakistan bombed Afghan territory last week. Pakistan hasn't responded yet. They will.pic.twitter.com/DKlq9qwLC8 — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) February …
Rescuers Trapped in Midwest Blizzard: https://youtu.be/ezp-7eLXBVs Blizzard Warnings Issued for Swath of East Coast, Including NYC The warnings, which go into effect on Sunday spanned from Delaware to Connecticut. At least 13 to 18 inches of snow is forecast for New York City. Forecasters issued blizzard warnings for this weekend for much of the Northeast, …
⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️TRUMP THREATENS IRAN: SHOULD IRAN DECIDE NOT TO MAKE A DEAL, IT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE UNITED STATES TO USE DIEGO GARCIA, AND THE AIRFIELD LOCATED IN FAIRFORD, IN ORDER TO ERADICATE A POTENTIAL ATTACK BY A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND DANGEROUS REGIME – AN ATTACK THAT WOULD… — NYPrepper (@nyprepper1) February 18, 2026 ⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️CNN …
The reality is that both OpenAI and Anthropic are going to spend hundreds of billions of dollars just trying to out compute each other over the next decade. Instead of guessing which massive software model wins the war at a $500B+ premium, the real opportunity is buying the… — 5to9_M.J. (@5to9_MJ) February 14, 2026 $1T …
The economy looks fine on paper while people struggle just to get by. As Statista’s Felix Richter reports below, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 9.3 million Americans reported working multiple jobs in November 2025 – the highest number ever recorded since the BLS started tracking multiple jobholders in 1994. https://www.activistpost.com/9-3-million-americans-work-multiple-jobs-to-make-ends-meet/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026620 FED'S …
by Michael War is at the door. On Friday, last ditch talks will be held in Oman, but nobody is really expecting anything to come out of them. The U.S. wants Iran to end all nuclear enrichment, limit the range of their missiles, end the funding of proxies throughout the Middle East, and stop killing …
Every warning light is flashing red and Wall Street is still pretending this is just a vibes problem. “The last lender” before the Fed – is it starting to approach critical levels?🛑 JPMorgan’s LCR in Q4 2025 stood at 115%… the lowest level since 2019. And this is after the bank reduced its repo book …
Trump 'orders plans' for US to invade Greenland? byu/Evening_Owl_5418 inconspiracy US President Donald Trump has ordered special forces commanders to draw up a plan for the invasion of Greenland, the UK-based Daily Mail reported Sunday. Policy “hawks around the US President,” following Washington’s success in carrying in a Jan. 3 military operation in Venezuela that …
Once CPI prints on Thursday and it is in line or cooler than expected Then there is very little in the way of the market running for the next few weeks at the very least. All important catalysts will be out of the way. The market has, by all accounts, handled the storm very well …
There's a reason. pic.twitter.com/hqoxJgk18G — HolyRoller (@N8trPt8r) November 20, 2025
Private credit is showing the early signs of a real liquidity squeeze. The marks are too high, the cash is leaving, the borrowers are struggling, and Blackstone’s chart is telling the truth before the reports do. It's toxic leveraged buyout trash. Tony Fucking Robbins was promoting it 2ish years ago… pic.twitter.com/wAZtv2ZGkW — Lentil Paws Rexandra🇨🇦🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 …
Repo-pocalypse: Banks Are Quietly Borrowing from the Fed Again Like It’s 2020 The Fed injected $125 billion into the banking system in just five days — its largest short-term cash rescue since the 2020 crisis. Banks are tapping the Fed’s repo window at pandemic-era levels, a signal that liquidity may be thinning faster than expected. …
CANADA TO H-1B HOLDERS: “TIRED OF U.S. VISA DRAMA? EH, COME ON UP.” While the U.S. hikes H-1B fees and clogs green card pipelines, Canada just rolled out the welcome mat… and threw in CA $1.7 billion to sweeten the deal. A new fast-track pathway invites H-1B holders to ditch the red tape and bring …
They keep telling everyone inflation is “cooling” while the numbers keep jumping the moment you look closely. This is why the hawks on the Fed are screaming no rate cut. Most recent food inflation data from Consumer Edge. Highly respected. Food inflation costs are surging. Up from 2.8% to 3.2% as of November 9th. We …
When traders bid up the near-term $VIX over the next month’s contract, it means fear is front-loaded; they expect turbulence immediately. That’s exactly what we just saw. The Nov-Dec VIX spread widened significantly, followed by a rapid contraction. This kind of reversal often… pic.twitter.com/wP9DT1pDdN — Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) November 11, 2025 This chart …
According to the report, SEC enforcement attorneys are “looking into whether the firm and some of its senior executives have exerted improper commercial influence on its ratings procedures, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing the ongoing probe.” Officials in the agency’s complex financial instruments unit are involved in the investigation, the …
i'll what china is up to: -> china built CIPS as an alternative to SWIFT (the system banks use to send payment messages globally). except CIPS actually settles the money too, not just "messages". -> in august 2025, there were 1700+ financial institutions in 180 countries using… — ELI5 of TLDR (@eli5oftldr) October 25, 2025 …
Gold starts the week storming out of the gates and immediately hitting a new ATH – just a fyi https://t.co/hJmL8ZdqYO — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) October 12, 2025 Now $63 lol — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) October 12, 2025 The HY spread has been lower only 3% of the time… pic.twitter.com/EZwCOsEIz0 — Yeoman (@yeoman650) October 12, 2025 …
Trump: You Grow Yourself out of Debt ! (Meaning: Inflate your way out of debt by running the economy hot & Financial Repression while eroding Purchasing power of American Middle Class and creating an asset bubble) pic.twitter.com/9MmDZGMJVM — Navroop Singh (@TheNavroopSingh) October 3, 2025 So we bailed out Argentina to save Bessent’s friend & they …
$NFLX needs to pivot fast on this one. Why any company takes any political risk with content defies belief. You can’t win. 50% of the country will hate your beliefs and ban you no matter what you say politically. https://t.co/tEOKGpU0u3 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) October 2, 2025 Netflix 40% drop coming. pic.twitter.com/7WNovr0QMg — The Great …
This is going to be worse than ’08. Foreclosures are ticking up. Some real carnage under the surface of this market Fast food and QSRs, home builders and home improvement, car sellers and lenders, payroll software, payment processors, private equity all quietly breaking down Probably nothing — Ross Hendricks (@Ross__Hendricks) September 30, 2025 The market …
pic.twitter.com/pVKDFKqntq — no pullbacks in inflation (@no_pullbacks) September 17, 2025 and then there's this forthcoming problem pic.twitter.com/gL79bspbz7 — Scott Tindle (@scott_tindle) September 17, 2025
by Clint Siegner Americans are feeling the pinch when it comes to price inflation. Rising prices are a political football with politicians on both sides of the aisle eager to pin blame on the other party. Both sides are correct. Politicians, along with the central bank they created and continue to endorse, are fully responsible …
