(Bloomberg) — Applications for US unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to the lowest since mid-April, remaining relatively subdued amid economic uncertainty.
Initial claims decreased by 6,000 to 216,000 in the week ended Nov. 22. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 225,000 applications.
Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, edged up to 1.96 million in the previous week, according to Labor Department data released Wednesday.
Traders bet big on Fed rate cut as December odds soar above 80% on prediction markets
The Fed’s next opportunity to adjust interest rates is at its Dec. 9-10 policy meeting
Prediction markets are heavily signaling a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in December, with probabilities hovering above 80% on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Traders on both platforms see only a slim chance of the Federal Reserve holding rates steady and virtually no expectation of a larger move.
On Polymarket, the trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on this market, is a little over $171 million.