Trump says only a full peace deal can end the Russia-Ukraine war. Ceasefire odds are higher, but lasting peace is unlikely with demands unchanged.

Trump says the only real way to end the war is a full peace deal, not a temporary ceasefire. He called the Alaska meeting “very successful” and spoke late with Zelenskyy. The plan is a lasting agreement that truly stops the fighting. Zelenskyy is expected in Washington soon. If that visit goes well, a meeting with Putin could follow. Millions of lives remain at stake.

A full peace deal is difficult. A ceasefire could give Ukraine time to rebuild its forces, which Russia will resist. Putin wants any deal to secure Russian control over occupied land and block Ukraine from joining NATO. Zelenskyy cannot accept that without giving up significant territory.

PalmAuraX estimates the odds of a 2025 full peace deal around 30 percent, based on the Alaska summit and Russia’s unchanged demands. A ceasefire is more likely, about 50 percent, because both sides are exhausted and the U.S. is pressing for it. Territorial disputes remain the main obstacle. CNN, Reuters, and ISW report the stalemate.

The situation is simple. Russia wants a final settlement, Ukraine wants more time, and the West wants to prevent escalation. These goals do not align. Without major concessions, the war continues, and any ceasefire will likely be short-lived.