Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by Michael A lot can happen in 48 hours. Just two days ago, things were relatively calm in the Middle East and global financial markets were humming along. But now everything has changed. Just like that, the ceasefire is over, the price of oil is soaring and stock prices are plummeting. It appears that all-out …
Buffer used to cushion war driven prices is nearly exhausted. “BREAKING: The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve just hit its lowest level since 1983. Crude oil stocks fell to 319.5 million barrels, down 6.2 million barrels in a single week. And the timing could not be worse. Every time oil prices spiked since the Iran war …
Israel and Hezbollah announced a ceasefire that was supposed to begin at 4 PM local time. But before and around that announcement, Israeli strikes hit multiple locations across southern Lebanon. According to Lebanon’s health ministry, 47 people were killed and 97 wounded since midnight, including women and children. Israel says 4 soldiers were killed by …
by Michael We are being told that we have a “ceasefire” with Iran, but both sides keep breaking it over and over again. We are also being told that a peace deal with Iran “is being finalized” or is “just days away”, and yet no deal ever materializes. I feel like I am living in …
Here’s what happened today We are about to close this live page. Here’s a recap of the day’s main developments: Iran announced the conclusion of military operations against Israel but warned of a harsher response if strikes resume on Lebanon or Iranian territory. Iran’s top negotiator said the US was not interested in a ceasefire …
Trump: I call all the shots. NethanYahu : Cool story. We are Sovereign Nation we make our own decisions. Nobody can dictate our decisions 😂🍿 — Tom Fordy 🇺🇸 (@PromoterBoxing) June 8, 2026 folks we got a new ceasefire and that’s why premarkets are green 😂 pic.twitter.com/66nOJMo1gt — amit (@amitisinvesting) June 8, 2026 Israel did …
They’re calling this ceasefire the least ceasefirey ceasefire in history — Arya’s Takes 🎯 (@AryasTakes) June 2, 2026
Here we go: Overnight, Iran called off peace talks and threatened to completely block Hormuz again. It was only a matter of time before Trump broke the ceasefire today. Trump is being pressured into escalating from NeoCons, Israel, AND Iran. https://t.co/wHAtjlVBkG — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) June 1, 2026 BREAKING: Iran says it has now decided to …
Centcom confirmed additional self-defense hits on Iranian radar and missile sites while Tehran reported retaliatory drone and missile fire toward Kuwait. Pakistan mediators called the channel extremely fragile with both sides accusing the other of bad faith. Oil prices jumped then pulled back but remain elevated near 95 dollars a barrel. Trump administration described actions …
Tehran flat-out calls it “fake news.” Rejects every term, won’t sign shit that doesn’t hand them everything. Slams the door on any 60-day extension — “violations everywhere.” Supreme Leader never even looked at it.161 targets still locked in the threat ring: nukes, US bases, oil terminals, cables. Map didn’t budge an inch.Headlines are trash. Iran …
IRGC calls it straight retaliation for the Bandar Abbas hit. Warns of “more decisive” action if America doesn’t back off. Axios drops another “60-day deal” leak at the exact wrong second. Trump hasn’t signed shit and never will. Escalation just got real. U.S. and Iranian negotiators have agreed on a 60-day memorandum to extend the …
President Trump faces fierce GOP backlash as he nears a ceasefire memorandum… The proposed deal targets unlocking $20 billion in frozen assets for Tehran… US negotiators insist on a clear pathway for the surrender of Iran’s enriched uranium… Tehran’s state media claims the Strait of Hormuz will remain under its absolute monopoly… Final ratification depends …
I am currently talking to two sources I really respect. They are both telling me that Trump is backing away from the deal with Iran, likely under extreme internal pressure (i.e. Israel and its domestic allies in the US). This is a terrifying turn of events. — Shaiel Ben-Ephraim (@academic_la) May 24, 2026 U.S. says …
*DOLLAR PARES GAINS AS US, IRAN PREPARE FINAL DRAFT ON AGREEMENT — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) May 21, 2026 The final draft of a US-Iran agreement has been reached. This includes a complete ceasefire, lifting sanctions on Iran, removal of the blockade from the Strait, and compliance with the UN charter. Will this really happen, or …
New data reveals the April 16 truce is a fiction; 673 dead in Lebanon in the last 30 days… IDF doubling down on “Yellow Line” buffer—a 10km strip of Lebanese soil they plan to hold “for years”… Hezbollah disarmament plan reportedly drafted by CIA, but ground reality is escalating… Friday Peace Talks: Delegations meet in …
Israeli artillery is currently pounding positions in Marjayoun following a rocket volley… Death toll from yesterday’s Jiyeh highway drone strikes has been revised to 14… Hezbollah has reportedly moved “long-range assets” into the Bekaa Valley in response… U.N. peacekeepers confirm three of their outposts were caught in crossfire overnight… Netanyahu tells his cabinet: “The 21-day …
Israeli Air Force conducted widespread morning strikes targeting Hezbollah launchers… At least 24 people confirmed dead in Lebanon as the fragile truce effectively dissolves… Reports emerge of a secret Israeli military outpost discovered inside Iraqi territory… Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi accuses Washington of “reckless military adventures”… Clashes reported between US and Iranian naval forces …
U.S. Central Command confirms the interception of multiple Iranian projectiles targeting three Navy vessels… The exchange follows a tense 24 hours of “mixed messages” from the White House regarding the 14-point peace memo… President Trump insists the ceasefire is “still holding” despite the flare-up, but warns of “a lot of pain” if Tehran stalls… UAE …
Beijing “deeply distressed” by the US-Iran war, pushing for immediate peace… Oil at 100 dollars per barrel as the market bets on a diplomatic cooling… Trump heading to Beijing May 14, the most consequential summit of the century… The dragon is tired of paying the war tax on its energy. Washington and Beijing find a …
Journalist: "Is the ceasefire over?" 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Hegseth: "No, the ceasefire is not over. Trump is going to make a decision whether anything were to escalate into a violation of the ceasefire." So basically, the ceasefire holds… as long as Iran lets us do whatever we want 20 miles… https://t.co/OUy4ACxWbz pic.twitter.com/XX9Zt6qdfE — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) May …
by Michael So much can change in a single day. In just the last 24 hours, the ceasefire with Iran has ended, fighting has erupted once again in the Strait of Hormuz, six Iranian fast attack boats have been sunk, and one of the most important oil facilities in the United Arab Emirates has been …
"If you keep firing missiles I'll be forced to extend the ceasefire by another 14 days" — Mike1010011 (@mike1010011) May 4, 2026 TRUMP: – IRAN TAKING SHOTS AT SOUTH KOREAN CARGO SHIP DURING PROJECT FREEDOM – TIME FOR SOUTH KOREA TO COME AND JOIN IRAN MISSION – WE’VE SHOT DOWN SEVEN SMALL BOATS, IT'S ALL …
The U.S. eliminated six Iranian small boats attempting to interfere with commercial shipping – CENTCOM Commander Adm Brad Cooper — Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) May 4, 2026 Right now CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper is on a call with journalists. He says 15,000 U.S. service members are involved in the Project Freedom effort to help commercial …
Iran communicated a ‘final proposal’ to the U.S. via Pakistani mediators last night President Trump said he is not satisfied with Iran’s newest and final offer. He added that he was briefed by CENTCOM Commander Gen. Bradley Cooper, during which one option presented was to “blast the hell out of Iran” and “finish them forever.” …
Kyiv contacting Trump aides to dissect details of Moscow’s short-term peace offer… Kallas: Progress unclear after Trump-Putin call; “Russia is openly praising Iran”… Zelenskyy: “Ukraine seeks peace… doing the necessary diplomatic work”… Paradox: EU leaders question why Russia praises Iran while talking peace with US… Zelenskyy demands details of proposed Russia-Ukraine ceasefire following Trump-Putin talks …
Iran offers to end maritime blockade in exchange for immediate halt to US strikes… Trump: “The offer is better, but not good enough”—demands total nuclear surrender… Brent Crude whipsaws as physical markets remain skeptical of “voluntary” reopening… US Amphibious Assault units reportedly reinforcing for potential Kharg Island invasion… Iran Foreign Minister Calls Pakistan Visit ‘Very …
Talks happening but fighting not stopping. I'm no expert but… byu/Krazynewf709 inconspiracy https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-strikes-hit-east-lebanon-expanding-scope-despite-ceasefire-2026-04-27/ Israel has continued to carry out strikes across southern Lebanon, and its troops are occupying a strip of the country’s south, destroying homes they describe as infrastructure being used by Hezbollah. The Iran-backed group, meanwhile, has kept up its drone and rocket …
The route is basically dead and the media is still recycling the same old peaceful narrative. Why is everyone acting like this is normal? Omg. This is absolutely insane. Why is everyone acting like this is normal? pic.twitter.com/gO0lUmC7CO — NoLimit (@NoLimitGains) April 25, 2026 There will never be a deal. Markets are being set up …
Iranian state media reports that Iranian forces took custody of two trade vessels in the Strait of Hormuz after opening fire on the ships Video shows gunmen seizing commercial ships, Iran says h/t b4its2l8
IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESMAN: THE NAVAL BLOCKADE ON IRANIAN PORTS IS STILL IN PLACE AND IT IS AN AGGRESSIVE MEASURE — First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) April 22, 2026 Trump said on April 21, 2026 the ceasefire with Iran is gonna stay in place for now, no real end date set. He said Tehran looks “seriously fractured,” …