Shale growth hit a wall and the oil market just woke up
US shale oil production has turned negative yoy for the first time in history
That matters.
Oil bull markets are born when depletion overwhelms new supply. Once new production can’t offset decline rates, prices do the work.
Every cycle looks different… but the trigger is always the same.
– In the 1970s, U.S. conventional production peaked
– In the 2000s, it was the North Sea and Mexico
– Today, it’s US shaleThis cycle is different
– Shale accounts for ~90% of global oil production growth.
– Shale carries ~40% base decline rates
– That’s roughly 3 mbpd, or half of global declinesFor now, the industry is masking the problem by stacking high-decline wells on top of each other.
The question everyone should be asking is this:
If US shale is no longer able to offset its decline rates,
who will?
US shale oil production has turned negative yoy for the first time in history
That matters.
Oil bull markets are born when depletion overwhelms new supply. Once new production can’t offset decline rates, prices do the work.
Every cycle looks different… but the trigger is… pic.twitter.com/jOfnOSk88Y
— Lukas Ekwueme (@ekwufinance) December 27, 2025