JP Morgan analysis mapping Hormuz disruption timeline suggests Asia would feel pressure first in early April, followed by Europe, then the US and Australia. People are starting to realize how large of a crisis this oil, fertilizer & helium shock is to the global economy

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JP Morgan analysts mapped out how the Hormuz closure may unfold over the world. The red lines are oil from the Persian Gulf.

Asia: April 1.
Europe: April 10.
North America: April 15.
Australia: April 20.

This is a game to see who blinks first.

Things are going to start getting interesting in the next week or two – most countries will stop getting deliveries.
byu/yellowjackethokie inconspiracy

With the war in Iran entering it’s fifth week and the Strait of Hormuz being still effectively closed, it is cutting off about a fifth of the world’s oil, about a fifth of liquid natural gas shipments, roughly a third of global fertilizer exports (~40–50% of traded urea), as well as about 30% of helium exports. The Strait of Hormuz is not just about energy; it matters to agriculture as well.

Do you understand what Germany’s Chancellor just said..

he said the Iran War will be “as serious as the COVID-19 pandemic” for Germany and Europe if it expands..

COVID cost the global economy over $12 trillion.. collapsed supply chains.. shut borders.. killed millions.. took 3 years to crawl out of..

and the head of the largest economy in Europe just compared a war in the Middle East to that..

here’s why he’s not exaggerating..

> 20% of the world’s oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.. Iran has already threatened to close it.. if they do, Europe doesn’t just pay more for gas.. Europe goes back to 2022.. except this time there’s no Russian pipeline to blame and no quick fix on the shelf..

> Germany just survived one energy war.. watched their industry crater when Russia cut the gas.. nearly went into a full recession over heating bills..

Merz watched Germany almost collapse when Russia cut the gas.. he knows what an energy shock feels like from the inside.. and he just compared this to COVID.. that’s someone telling you to be scared.

Do you understand what Trump just agreed to..

he’s willing to end the Iran war even if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed..

let me explain why that’s the real story..

the Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles wide at its narrowest point.. 21 million barrels of oil flow through it every single day.. that’s 20% of ALL global oil supply..

Qatar ships 77 million tons of LNG through there annually.. Europe, Japan, South Korea nd India.. they all feed from this strait..

in 1973, OPEC cut just 5 million barrels from global supply.. gas quadrupled within months.. US inflation hit 12%.. a global recession lasted 3 years..

they called it the “oil shock”.. it almost broke the western economy.. Hormuz carries 4x what OPEC cut in 1973..

Trump just said he doesn’t need it open to declare victory..

Wall Street is celebrating a peace deal that left the world’s oil valve closed.. and you’re going to feel that victory every single time you fill up your tank.

Spring has sprung, which means seeds that were planted in late winter are starting to germinate.

They’re hungry and will only grow to their full nutritional potential if they’re well fed.

But that, apparently, isn’t happening, as fertilizer supplies are interrupted by yet another pointless Middle East war.

The result?

Global food shortages that might dwarf the COVID-era Costco-hoarding mess of recent memory.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/food-supply-chain-breaking-again

h/t yellowjackethokie