Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The retail sector is where the pain is that he’s referring to pic.twitter.com/04gIC0uWkj — Travis Rothell (@TRothell62855) April 28, 2026 Jamie Dimon today: "The way it's going now, there will be some kind of bond crisis." He added that when a credit recession hits across all lending, it will be "worse than people think. It …
10-year Treasury yields hit 4.4% for the first time since July 2025. But war, exploding debt and soaring inflation will drive yields much higher. Without big rate cuts and massive QE (a mistake), stocks and real estate will crash, resulting in a financial crisis worse than 2008. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) March 20, 2026 🚨 …
When CAPEX history meets nosebleed valuations, the only direction for risk is down. “What lower short term rates have done is keep stock prices elevated & valuations stretched. That distortion shows up clearly in the data. The $SPY currently trades near ~25× forward earnings, well above its long-term median closer to ~16×” FULL ANALYSIS BELOW! …
It isn’t a slump. It’s a straight-up crash. The investment collapse matches the collapse in household lending, and the banks are finally admitting it in their numbers. China’s property downturn has now lasted for over 4 years byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts It's like the Chinese economy hit a brick wall in June. It isn't just investment, that's …
The US added an average of just 3,000 private-sector jobs per month over the last 3 months (ADP data), the slowest pace since the 2020 recession. A year ago, we were adding over 200,000 jobs per month byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts Wendy’s just announced it’s closing hundreds of U.S. stores. McDonald’s CEO says the same thing: traffic …
Can’t even look at the news anymore without the blood boiling. All this talk of the economy teetering like it’s ’07 all over again, big bank bosses like Dimon muttering about crashes coming any day now, and there folks sit, staring at paychecks that barely cover rent and groceries. Gas is dirt cheap for once, …
by Michael The agriculture industry in the United States is deeply broken. Farmers are the foundation of it all, but they are being financially squeezed from every direction. They are being squeezed by the giant monopolies that control the seeds, fertilizer and machinery that they need. And they are also being squeezed by the giant monopolies …
Home prices fall in 60 percent of counties… 1) This indicates that the U.S. housing correction is no longer just a Texas and Florida downturn. In fact, over 30 states showed a monthly contraction in May 2025 according to the Zillow data. — Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) June 25, 2025 3) In 2022, around 77% of …
S&P 500 already trading back at peak 2025 multiples, only difference is that earnings estimates for this year are significantly lower. pic.twitter.com/vALbxftwDK — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) June 10, 2025 It looks like nobody is hedged pic.twitter.com/cBLSBJ1GdI — James Choi (@JC_Investment) June 10, 2025 JPMorgan CEO Dimon: There's a chance that real numbers will deteriorate …
📈 Gold’s 2025 Surge: Defying the Commodity Downturn byu/EconomySoltani inInfographics Divergence Began in November 2023 By May 2025, gold prices had surged 25.0% year-to-date, in sharp contrast to the broader commodity market slump. The overall commodity index fell 9.0%, with energy prices down 12.9% and food prices down 5.9%. Gold’s value stood 153% above its …
Nvidia did the heavy lifting during the market rebound since April. Failure to make new highs at this point means the market is heading down $NVDA pic.twitter.com/NzCOvtlWvo — The Maverick of Wall Street (@TheMaverickWS) June 1, 2025 The unemployment rate for adults aged 22-27 is 5.3% vs the national rate of 4.2%. Historically it’s always …
Housing Vacancy has increased 28% since the second quarter of 2022. Despite the claims regarding shortages. Now at 8.2% combined vacancy rate and no sign of slowing. pic.twitter.com/G7vaInermG — Mr.Awsumb (@MrAwsumb) May 29, 2025 https://t.co/Fc03RBIPF7 pic.twitter.com/gQGpYEv08k — Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟ (@burrytracker) May 29, 2025 The U.S. housing market is facing a dramatic shift, …
South Korea is bailing out small businesses. China is injecting $80B into its banking system. Factories are furloughing workers. Bond markets are collapsing. The Bank of Korea froze, paralyzed by “uncertainty,” but will be forced to cut rates again. The PBOC — despite trying to exit emergency measures — was yanked back in, flooding the …
In REAL terms, we’re very close to the full downturn of 2022 byu/cxr_cxr2 inwallstreetbets Considering the euro/dollar exchange rate, the Nasdaq 100 has lost 27.5% from its February highs. Throughout the entire 2022 bearish phase, even accounting for the euro/dollar exchange rate, the decline was 30%. This doesn’t necessarily mean we’re close to the lows, but …
CITI CUTS U.S. EQUITIES TO NEUTRAL, WARNS ON TARIFF IMPACT Citi just downgraded U.S. equities to Neutral from Overweight, flagging recessionary earnings revisions, rich valuations, and trade risks. They now expect global EPS growth of just 4% in 2025—well below consensus—and see… — Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) April 14, 2025 WSJ: “This is different,” Dimon, …
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: Trump has maximum negotiating leverage right here, right now. I think it would be a mistake to think otherwise. Many of our trading partners have not escalated, and they will get priority in the queue. I think it was a big mistake, this… pic.twitter.com/bxJICTGmBd — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 9, 2025 …
🔴YIKES, S&P 500 bull trend looks broken, peak in sight? Wall Street's narrative is cracking, where's smart money going next? My Substack post reveals 2025–27’s best contrarian bets. https://t.co/MTHMTRa3tD pic.twitter.com/8TlMSlRuOC — The Macro Pulse (@TheMacroPulse) March 23, 2025 https://twitter.com/Jedi_ant/status/1904205083811696841 The stock market doesn’t reflect reality for 95% of people. It’s all a façade and a …
Remember how I warned you all that after the election, we'd suddenly start getting "surprise" and "unexpected" downward revisions on all of the allegedly glowing economic numbers? 😎 Now watch corporate earnings and forward estimates revise down. — Uncle Milty’s Ghost (@his_eminence_j) December 30, 2024 PAY ATTENTION. Warning signs are EVERYWHERE. https://t.co/BiwXM5MWdj — Uncle Milty’s …
My take is that 30yr mortgage is in a pause before heading higher. — Alistair (@kiwiangloameric) December 21, 2024 BREAKING: 30 year average US mortgage rates are above 7% again, per Mortgage News Daily. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) December 21, 2024 $500 billion for 5 days? 🤨 https://t.co/RkcFxJ0OGq pic.twitter.com/NXfcFpSr3f — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) December 21, 2024 Extremely …
by Michael The number of job openings in the United States has been “falling off a cliff”, and that is a major red flag. The last four years have been an economic nightmare for most Americans, and that is one of the primary reasons why Donald Trump won the election. But as we approach 2025, things are …
Without the inflated real estate market masking reality, 🇨🇦 economic downturn would be clear to everyone. pic.twitter.com/HYEjXawcWi — Shazi (@ShaziGoalie) December 9, 2024 People who make $160,000 can’t buy a house without government assistance. This country is so broken. pic.twitter.com/2lXf26PKHp — red pill rick (@igetredpilled) December 8, 2024 Bank of Canada expected to deliver another …
2/ Over the last 2 years, rates have risen from 0% to 5% at a very rapid pace pic.twitter.com/x4ZhknYJT2 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) November 20, 2024 4/ According to the NBER, which officially defines recessions, 4 key metrics matter: – Unemployment– Personal income– GDP– Industrial production As of Q4 2024, none of these metrics indicate …
US Futures Edge Lower as MidEast Tensions Rise US stock futures fell further on Wednesday after the major averages tumbled in the first trading session of October, as an escalating conflict in the Middle East h… More here: https://t.co/t5tNk3mpX5 pic.twitter.com/VKNs0EyrWE — TRADING ECONOMICS (@tEconomics) October 2, 2024 Today’s missile exchanges between Iran and Israel have …
This is the early phase before an economic downturn unfolds Buckle up pic.twitter.com/LFwQz6rIMe — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 1, 2024 This is how the 2008 Financial Crisis crash unfolded 👇 pic.twitter.com/qYvdaiJQNd — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 2, 2024 A record 53% of investors turned bullish on 17th July This coincided with the peak of the …
Posts from the economiccollapse community on Reddit The Buffett indicator doesn’t look so great, either. AI has pushed everything much higher. No one knows what effect it should really have on valuations and at some point a bubble does form. Not predicting it because no one really knows but there are warning signs. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-indicator-sounds-alarm-220009350.html Americans …
One Auckland-based housing block, which featured 108 modular units, was once promoted as the way of the future. Now, it is abandoned, with its’ builders in liquidation owing millions of dollars — yet another example of the downturn in construction. Builderscrack.co.nz co-founder Jeremy Wyn-Harris told 1News work is more “scarce” than it has been. “People …
We’re looking at multiple economic indicators like the yield curve and jobless claims to assess recession risks While an economic downturn is not here yet Risks of it are gradually increasing At this rate, we cannot rule out an H2 recession for sure — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 2, 2024 All the "job openings" were …
"Gas demand continues to modestly lag last year’s levels … this tells us that the median US consumer is feeling inflation’s pinch."@DataTrekMB pic.twitter.com/t4pbWLLLto — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) July 1, 2024 US JOB MARKET IS ONLY STRONG IN THE MEDIA HEADLINES On Friday, the BLS releases June non-farm payrolls. In May, the US economy added 272,000 …
Nautilus Holdings Ltd, a Bermuda-chartered company that leases container ships, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in New York. The company, burdened with approximately $770 million in debt, sought this protection to bring creditors into a single forum for negotiations. Nautilus operates a fleet of 16 container ships, each with capacities of up to 7,000 …
Multifamily—which is working through a large pandemic era pipeline—is in the early stages of its downshift pic.twitter.com/CDWLL5rxPO — Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) June 20, 2024 🏢📉 CRE CLO distress rate hits 9.74% in May, up 114 bps! 📊 Over 36.5% on watchlists. 🤔 What’s your take? #RealEstate pic.twitter.com/ILY3DYO5fB — Kaufman Real Estate & Consulting (@DanielKaufmanRe) June …