Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Recent economic updates from the U.S. paint a bleak picture, stirring deep unease among investors. The latest indicators, including the sharp decline in the Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index, signal a worrisome underperformance reminiscent of the tumultuous trends observed in 2019. This downturn in economic sentiment comes at a precarious moment, with all eyes fixed on …
The recession in America just hit Home Depot and Lowe’s, home improvement stores whose success is fundamentally linked to the US housing and real estate market. Home Depot reported a big revenue miss on the quarter. While Lowe’s reported revenues down 17% YoY in Q1 2024. These poor performances are a signal the the US …
China Maintains Yuan Defense After Currency Nears Red Line (Bloomberg) — China stuck to a pattern of keeping yuan weakness contained as pressure from a resilient dollar and poor investor sentiment pushes it toward a policy red line. The People’s Bank of China kept its daily reference rate for the managed currency broadly unchanged, implying …
In our Unemployment Radar for states 27-50: > 10 states are in a labor market downturn > 7 states are on the watchlist > 6 states have continued labor market strength On the aggregate at the state level: > 25 states are in a labor market downturn> 11 states are on the… pic.twitter.com/NwaGoSMaT5 — MacroEdge …
Ahead of tomorrow’s jobs data, this is critical knowledge to have. The Household Survey, which produces the unemployment rate and has been appreciably weaker than the Establishment Survey, which generates nonfarm payrolls, because it’s PROCYLICAL, it’s picking up the cycle’s end. https://t.co/kE2FRuOw8p — Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) April 4, 2024 ⚠️ Initial claims for state …
2) Of course – prices are still high compared to pre-pandemic levels. With another 18% drop in builder sale prices needed to match the 2019 value level of $336,000 for a new house. Will we eventually get there? pic.twitter.com/xzUvh2Y7dk — Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) March 25, 2024 5) As you can see, these tactics of reducing …
The Federal Reserve has significantly reduced its balance sheet. Some analysts predict a market downturn due to the decrease in liquidity, which has been exacerbated by 11 interest rate hikes that typically take 18 months for the market to digest. h/t theSilverVigilante
The Big Apple’s most expensive studio apartment, which sold for an astonishing $3.88 million in an all-cash deal in 2023, has since lingered on the market as a rental that nobody seems to want — even as its asking price plunges. The ambitious new owners asked a cool $38,000 a month for the single room …
Is the regional bank crisis ending or just starting? Recent developments, such as the sharp decline in New York Community Bancorp’s stock from commercial real estate losses, signal potential trouble. With $500 billion in debt maturing this year and falling property values, small banks are bracing for a crisis.
% bullish (lower pane) is making a double top on the right shoulder, deja vu of the left shoulder. Note the correlation between Bitcoins and Internet stocks. pic.twitter.com/LPcMqilKR5 — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) December 21, 2023 S&P 500: The odds in my analysis favor that the intermediate top is in or very near. The recent euphoria is …
by Naive-Historian-2110 In 2008 only 9% of mortgages were delinquent or in foreclosure. it doesn’t matter if half of homeowners have a 2% mortgage. it only takes a seemingly small amount of defaults and delinquencies to send waves. It’s definitely going to be the mother of all crashes. It’s like if the GFC f**ked the …
Investor sentiment surveys are expressing overwhelming positivity, suggesting a rosy outlook, while economic surveys paint a contrasting picture, indicating a deteriorating situation. This stark dichotomy between investor optimism and the grim economic reality underscores a perplexing divergence in current perceptions. "Basically investor sentiment surveys are saying everything is awesome again, while economic surveys are saying …
The sustained 18-month decline in the Conference Board Leading Indicator is a worrying trend reminiscent of historical economic crises, particularly in 1973-74 and during the Global Financial Crisis. The current -7.8% decrease aligns with significant economic downturns over the past six decades, indicating a potential hard landing. This, coupled with a high and rising loan …
A potential economic downturn in the next 11 months could boost Trump’s chances. Efforts might include redefining recession and manipulating data to present a façade of control. https://twitter.com/BradHuston/status/1724878352605991045 https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1724831374673395795
China’s economic landscape appears fraught with concerns as the rebound in consumption stalls and private business confidence loses momentum. In October, key indicators like the QuantCube Technology recreation and transport demand measure and the Morning Consult consumer sentiment survey recorded troubling declines. Furthermore, the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business poll echoed this sentiment, indicating …
We told readers in late July, “Why AirBnB Owners Are About To Be Forced Property Sellers.” Then, one month later, in late August, we wrote “The AirBnB Bubble Popping Will Pop The Housing Bubble,” followed by “AirBnB Bubble Bursts: Investor Home Purchases Crash 45% In Biggest Drop Since 2008.” Airbnb owners who snapped up homes in the last several years …
One second-order impact of the current affordability crisis? More auto loan fraud — as people need transportation but can't get approved for financing. Just recorded a mega episode on this growing $8.1B issue:https://t.co/GJ17UURkWO — Car Dealership Guy (@GuyDealership) October 4, 2023 Millennial are feeling the pain of higher rates more than baby boomers, per BI: …
by confoundedinterest17 Thanks to rampant Federal spending and overstimulus by The Federal Reserve, US housing prices are simply unaffordable for many. Particularly since the Covid epidemic (Wuhan China Flu). The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported 1.0% annual change in July, up from a 0% change in …
Bankruptcy filings have recently reached levels on par with the 2008 Great Recession and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. https://apolloacademy.com/bankruptcies-rising/ His source appears to be this and it only refers to companies with over $50 million in liabilities. So the y-axis is the number of companies filing for bankruptcy, so a peak of an average of …
Valuations have expanded significantly since Sept 2022 S&P 500 PE has risen from 19 to 25 in just 9 months pic.twitter.com/r6Mk47KHQc — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 20, 2023 Beware: Long big tech seems to be the most crowded trade in the market pic.twitter.com/eiTzAsXxMl — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 20, 2023 h/t Hephaestus4
Chinese government trying to step in to prop up currency and hide economic problems. News report below is from Indian news outlet Firstpost, highly substantive and reliable on Asian economic issues. China trying to muzzle and suppress its own economic experts and analysts, to prevent the real truth from being known! China’s debt woes getting …
