Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Donut Lab lit the EV and energy storage industry on fire last week with its announcement of a 400 Wh/kg solid-state battery cell that can last for 100 years. At face value, if true, we are looking at the single most disruptive announcement in the history of the electric vehicle industry and energy storage as …
When CAPEX history meets nosebleed valuations, the only direction for risk is down. “What lower short term rates have done is keep stock prices elevated & valuations stretched. That distortion shows up clearly in the data. The $SPY currently trades near ~25× forward earnings, well above its long-term median closer to ~16×” FULL ANALYSIS BELOW! …
Beneath the noise of campaign slogans and media distractions, a serious shift is underway, one that shakes the heartbeat of corporate reporting and forces space for long-term thinking. Donald Trump did not float a suggestion. He issued a command. He bypassed regulators, skipped committees, and posted the demand directly on Truth Social. He told the …
by CyberInu4200 Need smooth brained ppl to comment. When you look at post 2008 (GFC) there was a relatively stable uptrend till 2020. After that we pretty much saw the stimulus check bubble burst in 2022 and now I could somewhat see the AI bubble burst later on. Not really based on what AI can’t do, …
The stock market isn't a serious thing anymore How the FUCK is $KULR a $1b company with $3m in revenue in the last quarter and 50% operating LOSS pic.twitter.com/jMA6Y94PNU — Daniel Romero (@HyperTechInvest) December 26, 2024 100x P/S with such margins is bonkers — Daniel Romero (@HyperTechInvest) December 26, 2024 All this talk about the …
If we are at the beginning or middle of a bull market like some here say, then why are there so few new public offerings? The lack of IPOs is one of the biggest tells that we are at the end of the cycle. 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/GXkpY1AI1T — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) December 18, 2024 Dial …
By Egon von Greyerz As we approach what usually should be a blissful holiday period, the treacherous path the world is now on does not bode well for 2025 and beyond. Two global crises will dominate the world for at least several years and possibly decades. FINANCIAL CRISIS The crisis I have been discussing and …
ALL rate cut cycles that began with a 50 bps rate cut came during a crisis: 1. 2001, during the Dot-com bubble 2. 2007, during the Financial Crisis The Fed has sided with 25 basis point rate cuts at the start of every rate cut cycle, UNLESS the economy was in a major crisis. pic.twitter.com/NVVeNkDWXN …
https://twitter.com/dailychartbook/status/1812155026007052686 https://twitter.com/great_martis/status/1812631880749191455
BEWARE: Housing defaults have just hit the highest levels since 2011 This is not looking good pic.twitter.com/lFqQMxpVNt — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) June 19, 2024 Here's a comparison of home prices through 23 & 24 months since cycle peaks. 2006-08 vs 2022-24 on left. On the right is months 25 and on of the 06 cycle. …
Today it costs more to buy a Big Mac in developed countries than most emerging markets or less developed economies. The last time we observed a similar phenomenon was in the early 2000s when emerging markets’ investments significantly outperformed developed markets. One of the main reasons for this is that the performance of less developed …
Ahead of tomorrow’s jobs data, this is critical knowledge to have. The Household Survey, which produces the unemployment rate and has been appreciably weaker than the Establishment Survey, which generates nonfarm payrolls, because it’s PROCYLICAL, it’s picking up the cycle’s end. https://t.co/kE2FRuOw8p — Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) April 4, 2024 ⚠️ Initial claims for state …
“WHY DOES THE STOCK MARKET SEEM SO DETACHED FROM ECONOMIC REALITY? Because it is—and it’s normal! Near the end of economic cycles, we typically see more obfuscation in financial markets Stock buybacks are a good example of this” WHY DOES THE STOCK MARKET SEEM SO DETACHED FROM ECONOMIC REALITY? Because it is—and it’s normal! Near …