Low rates push SPY valuation to 25× forward earnings, NVDA trades at 45× earnings, far above historical norms. The three longest and dominant US CAPEX cycles suggest a CAPEX downturn until early 2036.

When CAPEX history meets nosebleed valuations, the only direction for risk is down. “What lower short term rates have done is keep stock prices elevated & valuations stretched. That distortion shows up clearly in the data. The $SPY currently trades …

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Facebook/Meta stock up 16 consecutive days, longest streak ever recorded for a trillion+ dollar megacap

by MarkusEF Feb 10 Day 16 update (Investopedia): https://www.investopedia.com/meta-stock-record-16-session-winning-streak-8788971 Trillion dollar / Big Tech longest streaks as of Feb 7 (WSJ): https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/jobs-report-stock-market-today-dow-nasdaq-sp500-02-07-2025/card/meta-stock-extends-winning-streak-to-15-sessions-EkYgAX2FQc5YFmfZWlN1 My analysis: Earnings were reported on January 29, the 8th day of this streak. They did beat expectations, and beat …

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US Experiences Longest and Steepest Yield Curve Inversion in Recorded History, ‘Smart Money’ Suggests Skepticism Over Fed’s Inflation Narrative.

The USA is currently experiencing the longest and steepest yield curve inversion in recorded history between the 10-year Treasury Note and 3-month Treasury Bill. Historical data shows that such inversions have preceded economic recessions. The prolonged inversion is seen as …

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