Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Reality hitting late buyers hard with no mercy. JUST IN: ACROSS ALL ACTIVE US HOUSING LISTINGS AS OF THIS MORNING, 1 IN 5 SELLERS WHO BOUGHT IN 2022-23 IS NOW ASKING LESS THAN THEY PAID byu/Boo_Randy_Revival inHouseBuyers “The home buying class of 2022 bought at or near the top of the housing market. Today, 19% …
Layoff announcements continued to climb last month as the tech sector culled positions, with planned job cuts reaching the highest total for May since 2020, the global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said in a report on Thursday. Employers announced just over 97,000 job cuts, up slightly from the same month last year and …
While the world is obsessed with AI GPUs, a massive rotation is happening in the “boring” sector of analog chips. via WSB: Nobody is talking about the ANALOG chip trade. Everyone’s chasing MU and INTC. Analog hasn’t moved just as much yet. Even if you cut Aschenbrenner’s “Situational Awareness” numbers in half, call it $1-2T annual AI …
The big question following the debate: Did it help any of the six leading candidates stand out in the chaotic race for governor? Read more: https://abc7.com/18947611/
BLAKE NEFF: The SPLC themselves are America's leading hate group. Their entire business model is based on ginning up hatred against other people.@BlakeSNeff pic.twitter.com/mwUirSdEvn — Bannon’s WarRoom (@Bannons_WarRoom) April 22, 2026 One thing that’s been very conspicuous over the past 24 hours is how many big name Democrats are lashing out over the SPLC charges, …
Iran has destroyed 5 US refueling aircraft in Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Airbase as Trump announces US forces “obliterating” Iranian military installations at Kharg Island in preparation for a GROUND INVASION. Meanwhile, numerous tankers have come under Iranian fire in the Persian Gulf, leading to massive panic in the oil markets and among US military …
Trump: "We’re leading everybody in everything. This is the greatest period of anything that we've ever seen." pic.twitter.com/qfzXbn8UcT — Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) February 16, 2026
Blue wave watch: Democrat flips Trump +17 Texas Senate seat in 32-point swing Democratic candidate Taylor Rehmet has won a special election for Texas State Senate District 9 in Tarrant County — a seat Donald Trump carried by 17 points in November 2024, per The Downballot. As I’m writing this, approximately 99% of the vote …
China is leading a historic shift in the global auto industry: Global sales of Chinese vehicles are estimated to have surged +17% YoY in 2025, to a record ~27 million units byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts Japan — ~$60–65B Germany — ~$40–45B United States — ~$25–30B China — ~$17–20B South Korea — ~$14–16B France — ~$9–11B Italy — …
via notayesmanseconomics This morning has brought an update for my main economic theme for China. New home prices fell 0.4 per cent month on month on average across 70 cities, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday. The decline eased slightly from a 0.5 per cent fall in October, but …
The Congress during President Donald Trump’s final two years in office will look a lot different than the current one. House lawmakers are resigning from Congress at a record rate with 40 members — roughly 10% — passing on running for reelection in 2026. More lawmakers are expected to call it quits in the coming …
US leading economic indicators are still deteriorating: The ratio of US leading to coincident economic indicators is down to 0.85, the lowest level since 2008. This ratio has now declined for 4 consecutive years. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) tracks forward-looking data, including consumer expectations, manufacturing orders, weekly hours, and initial jobless claims. …
Russian General In Venezuela Leading Advisory Mission: Ukraine’s Intel Chief The long-standing Russian mission in Venezuela is not directly related to the ongoing U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean. Acontroversial Russian general is now in Venezuela leading a rotational advisory mission, the head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) told The War Zone exclusively. Colonel …
A Wisconsin man with no previous diagnosis of mental illness is suing OpenAI and its CEO, claiming the firm's AI chatbot led him to be hospitalized for harmful delusions. https://t.co/bTktbM18yi — ABC News (@ABC) November 10, 2025 The suit is part of seven new lawsuits filed against OpenAI. A Wisconsin man with no previous diagnosis …
by Martin Armstrong I have been getting a ton of emails asking if this assassination of Charlie Kirk is what the computer has been forecasting about the great divide in the United States. Multiple companies across the United States are now issuing warnings to employees that they won’t have a job to go back to …
BTC peaks before stocks. QQQ soon will follow. $BTC is trading near 2 month lows currently. Diverging from the $QQQ lately. Last time BTC was trading this low, Q’s were about 4% lower than current levels. 🤔 pic.twitter.com/ALwrZMOLm9 — Heisenberg (@Mr_Derivatives) September 1, 2025 XRP The rare, majestic broadening top has appeared. The abyss awaits. …
Turkey Is Leading Effort To Suspend Israel From UN General Assembly https://t.co/3Y1NIFTsVu — zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 27, 2025 Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on Monday urged Islamic nations to work toward suspending Israel from participating in United Nations General Assembly meetings and activities. Speaking at an emergency summit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) …
Are office buildings the last prop holding banks from imploding? Small banks are hiding massive losses in CRE. Massive, like going out of business levels of losses. That's why they're kicking the can hoping they don't have to foreclose. There's nothing to foreclose on. This shit would make Lehman look like a walk in the …
New tenant rents are absolutely collapsing, leading indicator for overall rents and eventually the housing market pic.twitter.com/60iGWeGnvw — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) August 12, 2025 The claim is reliable based on Cleveland Fed and BLS data showing new tenant rents down ~9% YoY in Q2 2025, amid slowing national rent growth (-2.1% median YoY in June). …
AG PAM BONDI: $50 MILLION REWARD FOR MADURO… THE WORLD’S BIGGEST NARCO-TRAFFICKER “Today, DOJ and State are announcing a historic $50 million reward for info leading to the arrest of Nicolas Maduro. Maduro uses foreign terrorist organizations to bring deadly drugs and violence into our country. The DOJ has seized over $700 million in Maduro-linked …
Retail trading volume explodes to $6.6T shattering previous highs. Retail is going all-in on this market: Individual investors bought $155.3 BILLION of single stocks and ETFs in the first half of 2025, the largest semi-annual net inflows on record, according to Vanda Research. This exceeds the previous high of $152.8 billion hit in the first… …
Trump said today there were 21 Million. How do we remove 20 million in just 3.5 yrs? — floridanow1 (@floridanow1) June 16, 2025
During the GFC, we saw a noticeable crossover when part-time work increased and full-time work declined. Over the past year, we’re seeing a similar crossover slowly form. 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/uez8lZaGWP — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) June 10, 2025 Full-time workers -623KPart-time workers +33K — zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 6, 2025 2/ The leading economic indicators (LEI) index …
This unhinged lunatic is the president of the nation's largest teachers union. She is mobilizing the protesters. pic.twitter.com/Gtw5Gf5USs — Corey A. DeAngelis, school choice evangelist (@DeAngelisCorey) June 9, 2025 Her union is the only one that has a FEDERAL CHARTER. It's way past time Congress gets to work and REVOKES IT. pic.twitter.com/aUtdzdnHqv — Corey A. …
US corporate profits just fell the most since the global financial crisis days ("GFC"). But, don't worry… all is well. pic.twitter.com/yTXi6TF7Sy — Gordon Johnson (@GordonJohnson19) May 29, 2025 Leading Economic Indicators look at the future.Lagging Economic Indicators look at the past. When we divide the Leading Index by the Lagging Index, we get a series …
Leading is down, cyclical is turning, aggregate is when most people will feel it
by RobertBartus “The index of prices paid by New York manufacturers jumped to 51 points in April, the highest since August 2022. At the same time, the Philadelphia manufacturing prices paid index rose to 51 points, the highest since July 2022. All while the Dallas and Kansas manufacturing prices paid surged to 48 points and …
It’s hard to get excited about the rally in equities when Dow Transports look like this. 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/fVnd7juFbL — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) April 25, 2025 🚨US bankruptcies are rising as if there is a CRISIS: 188 US large companies declared bankruptcy in Q1 2025, the most in 15 YEARS. This is up 35% from …
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US declined by 0.7% in March 2025 to 100.5, after a decline of 0.2% in February. 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/QaFvkXJliE — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) April 21, 2025 Americans considering filing for bankruptcy hits highest level since pandemic… Bankruptcy filings are on the rise in 2025. This year, …
