War drama masks overheated markets warning signals. We can’t even get -5% down from the all time high, even though oil goes up, world is on fire, GDP is being revised down every week.

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We have now entered the rampant buffoonery phase of this war. However, it appears that both sides are looking for an offramp without admitting as much. Trump has punted the Strait of Hormuz crisis to the rest of the world and Iran has said they will allow the rest of the world to pass through the Strait of Hormuz freely. That’s about as much de-escalation as we are going to get.

Therefore, I want everyone to remember market conditions two weeks BEFORE this war broke out:
https://investing.com/news/stock-market-news/capex-overinvestment-concerns-hit-new-high-bofa-survey-finds-4508245
“FMS combined allocation to equities & commodities is net 76%…highest since Jan’22,”

Investors cite an “AI bubble” as the biggest tail risk at 25%, while 43% see private equity and private credit as the most likely source of a systemic credit event”

The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator rose to 9.5, triggering a
contrarian “sell signal.”

This war is now just a useful distraction.

Like the last one that’s still going on.

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