Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
👑 King to ‘protect multi-faith nation’ in revised definition of monarchyhttps://t.co/MFqH5oNdrM — The Telegraph (@Telegraph) June 26, 2026 The King’s official job is to protect faith “within the multi-faith nation”, under a newly published palace definition of the monarch’s role. The King, who is Supreme Governor of the Church of England, will “protect the space …
We have now entered the rampant buffoonery phase of this war. However, it appears that both sides are looking for an offramp without admitting as much. Trump has punted the Strait of Hormuz crisis to the rest of the world and Iran has said they will allow the rest of the world to pass through …
BREAKING: BLS estimates the US economy ADDED +130,000 jobs in January, above expectations of +55,000. Over 60% of employment gains came from healthcare. The unemployment rate declined to 4.3%, from, 4.45 and below expectations of 4.4%. Revisions reduced job growth in November and December by a combined -17,000 versus prior reports. In other words, ALL …
911K Job Growth Revisions Color me not surprised. https://t.co/xWCzOX1Im4 pic.twitter.com/jCjWB3pON3 — Samantha LaDuc (@SamanthaLaDuc) September 9, 2025 Big 50bps cut at the next FOMC meeting is a lock: https://t.co/thO5HFLVos — Sold At The Top (@soldatthetop) September 9, 2025 The US BLS overstated the number of jobs added by ~76,000 PER MONTH. In June, the US …
“Payroll employment growth slowed sharply to only 35,000 jobs per month over the three months ending in July. This is well below the moderate pace seen earlier in the year, likely due to a significant softening in labor demand.” https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2025/08/09/federal-reserve-rate-bowman/1681754774717/ The Fed’s dual mandate is breaking down. Inflation’s near target. Jobs are slipping. Tariffs are …
US 🇺🇸 GDP for Q1 just officially ended up at -0.5% pic.twitter.com/nLI7EytA55 — Evan (@StockMKTNewz) June 26, 2025 CNBC’s Rick Santelli joins ‘Squawk Box’ to break down the latest economic data to cross the tape.
What The Headline GDP Number Doesn’t Show byu/stockpreacher instockpreacher BREAKING: US goods imports fall -19.8% in April as President Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" effectively halted trade with many countries. This marks the largest drop in history for US goods imports. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 30, 2025 “There was always concern that it would be …
by confoundedinterest17 Time to take a break from the Gavin Newsom/Karen Bass LA fire fiasco. And refocus on the Biden/Harris employment fiasco. After a year of ‘robust’ job growth private payrolls were subsequently revised by nearly 1 MILLION for April 2023 – March 2024. The most recent data points to additional huge revisions in Q2 …
Corporate bankruptcies and defaults accelerating, unemployment continues to rise, and spreads blow out. Especially, after Powell said “we’ve avoided recession” and S&P Global is expecting the speculative-grade default rate to fall to 3.5% by September 2025. Moody’s pointed out… https://t.co/9tn3htvQQI pic.twitter.com/kPNU1t3OTz — WarnTracker 2.0 (@j77324) December 21, 2024 This is concerning: Non-farm payroll employment in …
⚠️BRACE FOR MORE US JOB MARKET DATA REVISIONS⚠️ Nonfarm payrolls will likely be revised DOWNWARD by another ~300,000 jobs for 2Q 2024. This is according to the QCEW data released by the BLS. If this trend continues, it will turn out that August and October saw JOB LOSSES. pic.twitter.com/rA3cgv6En6 — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) December …
Job cuts accelerate in October with strikes, mass furloughs, layoffs, & small business closures at elevated levels. Over 109,000 cuts per our preliminary figure. Final figure available on Sunday, as always. #MacroEdge #DrivenbyData pic.twitter.com/9cPnR1qDr9 — MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) October 31, 2024 *US BLS: OCT. TRANSPORT EQUIP. JOBS FALL 44K, REFLECTING STRIKE *US BLS:HURRICANES LIKELY AFFECTED OCT. …
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=580A There’s good news in another corner of today’s report: Americans are saving more than previously thought. The personal saving rate, a measure of the disposable income left over after Americans pay their taxes and regular expenses, was 4.8% in August. The July reading was revised upward, from 2.9% to 4.9%. https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/pce-report-for-august-inflation-data-in-the-spotlight-after-fed-s-half-point-rate-cut/card/so-much-for-that-red-flag-consumers-are-saving-more-new-data-shows-b9FLxHAtnRTjI2fZIKgC h/t im____new____here
Is this Chinese statistics? I can't believe these statistics are from the U.S. We want to know the accurate indication, even if the announcement is late. I can't invest based on such unreliable statistics. — Hiroki Miyano（宮野宏樹） (@hiroki_miyano27) August 20, 2024
California’s Share of Unemployed: California currently accounts for approximately 20% of the nation’s jobless claims, which is significantly higher than its 11% share of the labor force population. This indicates that a disproportionate number of unemployment claims are coming from California. California in a jam after borrowing billions to pay unemployment benefits "…20% of the unemployed happen to live in …
via Mike Shedlock The Philadelphia Fed has a GDP method that blends, not averages GDP and GDI. They revised the indicator significantly lower on Thursday. GDPplus from Philadelphia Fed and GDI from the BEA, chart by Mish Is GDP or GDI a Better Measure? The Philadelphia Fed prefers GDI over GDP but it prefers a …
Job openings in the US for the previous month were just revised down by 115,000 jobs. 12 of the last 14 job openings reports have been revised lower after the fact. Economists in D.C. project strength in the initial headline, then quietly lower it a month later. Fake economy. pic.twitter.com/Z0yovx0unK — Joe Consorti (@JoeConsorti) April …
via Mike Shedlock: The cost estimate of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act coupled with EPA mandates, just jumped by $466 billion. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget and the latest Congressional Budget Office outlook conclude IRA Energy Provisions Cost Could Double With New Emissions Rule Last April, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed a new rule …
Also: Jobs data tends to lag, indicating the situation might be worse than the market currently anticipates. Paradoxically, this is bullish for the near future as the market is eager to price in the cuts. TLDR: Bad news is good news. — Phoenix Capital (@PhoenixCapitalH) December 5, 2023 Job openings/S&P500 h/t Tonight We Ride!
by confoundedinterest17 Where has all the GDP gone? Not to wages. As expected, Q3 Real GDP was revised upwards to 5.2% annualized. Of course, this shatters JKP’s talking points that Biden inherited a train wreck of an economy from Trump. Q3 2020 Real GDP grew at over 30%. And on a year-over-year (YoY) basis, US real GDP grew …
Analysts are repeating the same mistake made during the 2008 Financial Crisis by revising earnings upwards despite a contraction in leading economic indicators, raising major warning signals. The US is experiencing deficit spending near 10% of GDP, reaching levels last seen in 2008, yet the Fed maintains that there is no recession in sight, leading …
U.S. jobless claims fall to 216,000, lowest level since February (Bloomberg) — Applications for US unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level since February, underscoring businesses’ reluctance to let go of workers. Initial unemployment claims decreased by 13,000 to 216,000 in the week ended Sept. 2, Labor Department data showed Thursday. The figure was lower …
Every single jobs report in 2023 has been revised down, per Peter Tarr, @ProfitsTaken: pic.twitter.com/Bdei0AWtfK — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 6, 2023 DOES ANYONE CARE ABOUT THE REVISIONS? 😳 pic.twitter.com/3fgGRwQcUu — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 6, 2023 Biden "job miracle" built on an illusion as BLS admits between 4 million and 5 million American workers …
by confoundedinterest17 The glories of Bidenomics is on fully display. Despite what Lyin’ Biden says, Bidenomics is only working for the elites (top 1%). How Soviet/CCP command economy of him! Here is an ugly chart showing Bidenomics in action! We all know that Covid unleashed a torrent of Fed monetary stimulus AND Federal spending on …
via UPI: Aug. 7 (UPI) — The American Red Cross is changing its donor screening policy to allow gay and bisexual men to donate blood under new FDA rules that took effect Monday. The humanitarian organization announced its change, removing a historic barrier in the donation process by not considering sexual orientation as a risk factor. …
by confoundedinterest17 The Federal Reserve is watching July’s jobs report carefully. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the US economy added 187k jobs in July, less than the expected 200k. US average hourly earnings continued at 4.4% year-over-year (YoY). However, the last core inflation reading was 4.8% YoY, so real wages continue to decline. Rent …
Recent stock market surge deviates from reality, with fund managers buying overvalued stocks to catch up, pushing the market higher. https://twitter.com/MFHoz/status/1674879653008359424 Look at NAIIM, they are fully invested now. — The Macro Pulse (@TheMacroPulse) June 30, 2023 Nine months down, and nine months up. And what a load of bull shit we've had to suffer …
