Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The reversion will be interesting. Either the long-term bills rate increases sharply, or the short yields plunge. I wonder which will happen? h/t Ok_Significance_4008
The U-shaped curve of happiness is a concept in psychology and economics that suggests people’s happiness levels tend to follow a U-shaped trajectory over the course of their lives. According to this theory, happiness tends to be relatively high in youth, then decreases during middle age, before gradually increasing again later in life. This pattern …
The USA is currently experiencing the longest and steepest yield curve inversion in recorded history between the 10-year Treasury Note and 3-month Treasury Bill. Historical data shows that such inversions have preceded economic recessions. The prolonged inversion is seen as “smart money” signaling skepticism about the Federal Reserve’s narrative on inflation. This skepticism raises questions …
by confoundedinterest17 President Biden still shuffles around mumbling about Maga Republicans and defending democracy (while gettig his DOJ and affiliates to prosecute his leading Presidential opponent) even though …. consumers continue to struggle. While Biden is in wonderland, American consumers are in hell. Savings as a percentage of GDP is actually NEGATIVE as sticky price …
by mrmrmrj This chart demonstrates the historical relationship between yield curve inversions and subsequent recessions. As you can see, there is a strong correlation between the two phenomena. In other words, when the yield curve inverted (i.e., when short-term interest rates rose above long-term interest rates), a recession soon followed. This suggests that an inverted …
In a significant market development, the 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury Yield Curve has remained inverted for a historic 278 consecutive trading days, marking the longest inversion in financial history. The inversion has deepened recently, reaching its lowest point since August, adding to economic uncertainty. Notably, Broadcom has emerged as a front-runner in the semiconductor industry, …
https://twitter.com/crofin67/status/1732430822756508116
by confoundedinterest17 The Federal Reserve reminds me of The Stones’ song “Tumbling Dice.” Why? The Fed can’t tell if inflation is cooling or re-accelerating. Hence, they are just rolling dice. Let’s start with mortgage rates, a critical component of the housing and CRE markets. Mortgage rates remain up 163% since 2021, not great for housing affordability. Despite …
The economic landscape is marked by several concerning indicators, as evidenced by the S&P 500 margins trending lower, reflecting potential challenges for companies. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reports a deterioration in sales, indicating a worsening scenario for small businesses. Additionally, a growing number of companies are expressing concerns about weak demand, adding …
by demonbeanie The banking system is facilitated by uncollateralized debt; fractional reserve banking, which had seen the reduction of the reserve requirements to 0% in 2020. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm On your bank’s balance sheet, there are assets labeled “cash on hand,” which includes cash and cash equivalents which is physical dollars, MM accounts, CDs, Short-term gov bonds, and …
The rapid steepening of the yield curve from inverted levels suggests an impending economic downturn. Caution: Yield curve has begun steepening rapidly from inverted levels This brings the economy closer to an economic downturn Buckle up pic.twitter.com/JfBgBxOZgq — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 29, 2023 BREAKING: Americans spent money at the fastest rate in nearly two …
by confoundedinterest17 Alarm! US Treasury yields are a runaway train. The 30-year Treasury yield is soaring and rose above 5% … again. First time since 2007, just before the financial crisis and The Great Recession. The 30Y-5Y yield curve is steepening.
by confoundedinterest17 Maui Joe Biden received a lot of help from his friends at The Federal Reserve! Thanks to the crippling effects of Bidenomics (Fed easing then tightening to combat inflation caused by insane green spending and a war in Ukraine), US mortgage rates (conforming 30-year) has increased 159%. On the yield curve side, the …
by confoundedinterest17 We are back in the USSR! And the economy taking commands from Washington DC! Introduction During the COVID-19 pandemic the occurrence of remote work jumped, out of sheer necessity. The technology was already available, but the pandemic accelerated its adoption and bypassed the hesitation of employers to allow people working from home. In many cases, …
Source: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html#/overview The yield curve as a leading indicator uses the 10y-3mo value to predict the probability of recession. July report came out a couple days ago and May ’24 is higher than any time in the last 40 years at 70.85%. This is not the fed’s official prediction but is a tool they build and …
by confoundedinterest17 Yes, Bidenomics is an FDR-type massive expansion of government into the private sectors requiring massive Federal spending … and inflation. Except that it beenfits anything BIG and powerful to the detriment of the small and weak. (Bloomberg) Friday’s jobs data sparked a relief rally in bonds and a flatter yield curve, but the pain …
by InternationalTop2405 The 10Y treasury was introduced in 1968
by confoundedinterest17 Will this be the last time for a Fed rate hike? Today, The Fed raised their target rate to 5.50%, up 525 basis points from 0.25% on 3/15/2022. That is one big rise in rates over a short period of time. Will they stop with one rate hike? If The Fed Funds Futures …
by confoundedinterest17 Jared Bernstein was VP Joe Biden’s former Chief Economist and is now chair of the United States Council of Economic Advisers. Pretty impressive! Except that Bernstein is not really an economist. He has a PhD in social welfare from Columbia University. In other words, Bernstein is a Progressive Marxist cheerleader, not a real …
by confoundedinterest17 I have never seen anything like this. The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve is deep in inversion and has had a negative slope for 265 straight days. Bidenomics is born under a bad sign! On the commodities front, heating oil is up almost 2% this morning and nickel (an important element in Biden’s green …
An inverted yield curve systematically leads to a higher unemployment This time is not different pic.twitter.com/nynrlZ2eAZ — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 20, 2023 Charts picturing the blow through of pandemic consumer savings are a fun way to view data But this headline is more fun: pic.twitter.com/egOvK5W5Db — Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) July 20, 2023
by confoundedinterest17 I am anxiously waiting for the US inflation report tomorrow, so I am just looking at the US Treasury yield curve, mortgage rates and cryptos today. The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve stumbled (just like Biden and Bidenomics) to -91.166 basis points as the turnaround in M2 Money growth has stalled. Bankrate’s 30Y …
by confoundedinterest17 The Federal Reserve is printin’ the night away! Yes, as The Fed printin’ the night away, the US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y) is still inverted, but at -86.616 basis points. The 2 year US Treasury yield is down -8.2 BPS, the largest decline in the world … after Greece! Greece? The fiscal wreck …
(Reuters) – A widely watched section of the U.S. Treasury yield curve hit its deepest inversion on Monday since the high inflation era of Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, reflecting financial markets’ concerns that an extended Federal Reserve rate hiking cycle will tip the United States into recession. The closely-watched spread between the 2-year and 10-year …
by confoundedinterest17 Yes, Resident Biden, our bumbling, corrupt “leader” said “We created more new jobs in two years than any president did in their entire term.” Of course, like almost everything that comes out of Biden’s mouth was a lie. Actually, the US economy added 12.53 million jobs after April 2020 (Trump) while Bidenomics created …
“The German Yield Curve is the mot inverted its been in over 31 years. This may signal an impending recession. Also the German economy: -6.1% Inflation -Contraction in PMI from May to June -GDP forecasted to fall in Q2” Source: https://t.co/kognkNxLL6 — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) June 27, 2023 “WSJ: Germany has become a drag …
by confoundedinterest17 61% of Bloomberg terminal respondents (including me, by the way) see Fed hikes leading to recession. Bond traders are stepping up wagers that the Federal Reserve will steer the US economy into a recession. Policy-sensitive front-end Treasuries led a selloff Thursday, while longer-date bonds lagged, a day after Fed officials indicated that they’re prepared to …
