Source: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html#/overview
The yield curve as a leading indicator uses the 10y-3mo value to predict the probability of recession. July report came out a couple days ago and May ’24 is higher than any time in the last 40 years at 70.85%. This is not the fed’s official prediction but is a tool they build and publish.
h/t marketsimulator