probability

Multiple (anonymous) sources report Trump is close to firing Pam Bondi. Polymarket just put a 93% probability on Trump firing her

https://x.com/TukiFromKL/status/2039731319182184677 President Donald Trump has informed Pam Bondi that her time as his attorney general is nearing an end, multiple sources familiar with the situation told Semafor. Trump has not yet made a formal announcement of Bondi’s replacement, but one is expected soon. As is typical, the sources noted that Trump can also change his …

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Massive SPY put wall builds at 665. A trader drops $2M on deep OTM Nasdaq crash bets. VIX ended the day -10.27%, there is now an 85% probability of a down day on SPY within the next 2 trading sessions.

For tomorrow market – I see premiums are really bullish. When I check option by option I see this First image: FULL BEAR MODE, $SPY PUTS AT 675Second: FULL BEAR MODE, shorting $SPY calls at 684 But the third: some puts are being shorted (third image). But this 665 friday… pic.twitter.com/R41OBvDSj8 — Data Driven Stocks …

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Democrats signal impeachment plans for Trump and Vance if 2026 midterms flip, Polymarket shows 81% probability

💥BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Democrats plan to impeach and remove both Trump and Vance if they win the 2026 midterms. According to Polymarket, Democrats currently have an 81% chance to win the midterms. pic.twitter.com/hhQEgmUJNW — Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) January 31, 2026 Multiple reports confirm that some Democratic leaders have publicly expressed intentions to pursue impeachment against Trump …

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Don’t be a late bull! UBS puts the recession probability at 93%; This “market” is at extreme risk of spontaneous explosion. RAY DALIO: HOLD 10–15% OF PORTFOLIO IN GOLD

Don’t be a late bull.The building may look strong, but its foundation weakens day by day.Dollar Index at all-time lows.Gold at all-time highs.Market at all-time highs — yet small caps haven’t reclaimed theirs.Inflation ticking up but Fed expected to cut rates. All of this… — optionGeek (@StockShark16) September 11, 2025 This "market" is at extreme …

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High probability of an aggressive pullback.

Anyone else seeing this candle?? pic.twitter.com/FjKfXfD1Ex — Jim Carroll (@vixologist) May 15, 2025 DAX Update Impressive run High probability of an aggressive pullback. pic.twitter.com/ROjs0IrZKN — The Great Martis (@great_martis) May 15, 2025 $IWM Something has to give right here, right now. Your move Russell… pic.twitter.com/e4q2cwhEUh — Heisenberg (@Mr_Derivatives) May 15, 2025

Junk bond yields have exploded. Markets are pricing in a higher probability of a credit event.

Junk bond yields have exploded pic.twitter.com/F8Slv78mou — The Great Martis (@great_martis) April 7, 2025 High-yield spreads are blowing out…$SPY $TLT pic.twitter.com/zV75YPlXh5 — Fibonacci Investing⚡️ (@FibonacciInves1) April 7, 2025 Market distress is skyrocketing: US high-yield corporate bond spreads are up 100 bps since April 2nd, to 4.45%, the highest since October 2023. This marks the largest …

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FedWatch Probability of Rate Hike/Cut

by Euro347 https://en.macromicro.me/collections/4238/us-federal/77/probability-fed-rate-hike My guess is J Powell states tariffs will cause inflation on goods and services in next weeks press conference, Trump opposes Powell. PCE will be al little hot, same as in Europe then Next Saturday, Feb 1st Tariffs are announced. 0% chance of a cut, probably not what anyone wants to hear. …

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Now I am worried: “The probability of a US recession materializing in 2025 is 0%, according to a Monday note from Torsten Sløk, the chief economist at Apollo.”

pic.twitter.com/AjAiL7vFzA — Saw Chuck (@Saw_Chuck2023) December 25, 2024 RCH Fed: manufacturing contracts again in Dec w/ employment, new orders, and shipments all falling; although firms expect significantly better conditions 6 months from now, the sector is currently still hemorrhaging: pic.twitter.com/WQrxj4k76c — E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) December 26, 2024 🚨🇺🇸BIDEN CAUGHT LYING ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET…AGAIN …

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Invest 99L: High Probability a Major Hurricane could hit South Florida Nov 21

Forming in the West Caribbean and traveling thru the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf of Mexico. Heading NE into South Florida. GFS has 957mb at landfall. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2024111200&fh=6 Forecast track and intensity may change on future GFS runs, but stay vigilant. Stay tuned for updates. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM …

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Market Pricing Signals A 100% Probability Of US Recession

🚨MARKET PRICING SIGNALS A 100% PROBABILITY OF US RECESSION🚨 The market is currently pricing in over 2.00% Fed rate cuts within 12 months, the most since the Financial Crisis. This implies a 100% probability of a recession in the next 12 months, according to Goldman Sachs. pic.twitter.com/AHZtUBrZ3Z — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) September 22, 2024 …

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Ford Indicators Flash Serious Recession Signals as Probability of Contraction Rises

The probability of an outright contraction keeps getting higher and higher with each successive release. Ford projecting a *30%* decrease in commercial chassis orders: What this means: If you're ordering fewer chassis, you're likely producing fewer vehicles. But 30% is a big number. Image below is a layoff notice (WARN) filed by one of Ford's …

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There is a mounting probability of a looming surge in massive credit card loan delinquencies and defaults.

by GreggraffinCI https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2023/12/three-measures-of-us-credit-card-debt/#:~:text=In%202023%2C%20outstanding%20credit%20card,for%20consumer%20spending%20going%20forward. From a disposable income standpoint the Fed data agrees that the consumer is better able to service their debt now than they ever have. That peaked during the stimmie checks but that gap has closed from -25% to -5% in the past 2 years. Which is not a promising trend. Adjusting for …

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Survey of Consumer Expectations: U.S. households probability of being able to come up with $2,000 if an unexpected need arose within the next month falling to its lowest level since 2013.

Source: https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/credit-access#/financial-fragility1 Wut Mean?: Overall Decline in Consumer Credit Demand (2023): General weakening in most credit application rates. Credit card limit increase applications rose. Rejection Rates Trends: Overall rise in rejection rates for credit applications. Decline in rejection rates for credit card limit extensions and new mortgage applications. Higher creditworthiness among those applying for new …

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Yale University: 66.1% of retail investors and 56.03% of institutional investors believe the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S., like that of October 28, 1929 or October 19, 1987, in the next six months is above 10%.

by Dismal-Jellyfish Wut mean?: On the flipside, this means 66.1% of retail investors and 56.03% of institutional investors believe the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S., like that of October 28, 1929 or October 19, 1987, in the next six months is above 10%.    

US recession probability showing highest level since 1980’s for May ’24

by marketsimulator Source: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html#/overview The yield curve as a leading indicator uses the 10y-3mo value to predict the probability of recession. July report came out last week and May ’24 is higher than any time in the last 40 years at 70.85%. Estimates currently go through July ’24. This is not the fed’s official prediction but …

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Energy stocks are 5% below highs, indicating oil’s potential return of 48%, impacting Fed policy and financial markets. Rate hikes probability decreases, but odds of rate cuts drop, with no cuts until May 2024.

Energy stocks are only 5% away from recent highs. If historical correlations matter, it is hard to believe oil won't follow the same path. That alone would imply a 48% return from its current levels. As a crucial contributor to inflation, rising energy costs could have a… pic.twitter.com/fBZ60dhWlO — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) August 11, …

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The yield curve guy is back – chart of US recession probability

Source: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html#/overview The yield curve as a leading indicator uses the 10y-3mo value to predict the probability of recession. July report came out a couple days ago and May ’24 is higher than any time in the last 40 years at 70.85%. This is not the fed’s official prediction but is a tool they build and …

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The probability that one of Trump’s D.C. jurors is a Republican: 28.3%

Source: https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election_in_Washington,_D.C.,_2020 Question: If 5.4% of voters from a certain city are Republicans, what is the probability that a randomly picked twelve-person jury of people who live in that city will have one Republican? AI answer: To calculate the probability of randomly selecting a twelve-person jury from a certain city and having one Republican, we …

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Recession probability reaches highest since 1980s.

Warning: The probability of a recession is at its highest level since the early 1980s pic.twitter.com/1XmuWtjmdW — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 12, 2023 Business inventories are a leading indicator of inflation A continued decline in inventories indicates lower inflation However, sharp drops have coincided with a recession since 1995 pic.twitter.com/IGHSrhJoF8 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July …

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Recession probability reaches 1980s levels

“We’re now at an average 62% chance of a recession by May 2024” The probability of a recession has skyrocketed to levels last seen in the 1980s We’re now at an average 62% chance of a recession by May 2024 pic.twitter.com/gDXIzvtP56 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) June 28, 2023 ‘Greatest Economic Reset In Our Lifetime’ Is …

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High Probability Recession Hits U.S. in Late 2023

  Top Chart: Over the past +50 years, the inversions of the 50 day SMA of the 10 year treasury rates minus the 50 day SMA of the 3 month treasury rates have all preceded the start of a U.S. recession (there have been no false indicators or exceptions to this rule). The 8 recessions …

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