A hub for independent voices and hard truths
https://x.com/TukiFromKL/status/2039731319182184677 President Donald Trump has informed Pam Bondi that her time as his attorney general is nearing an end, multiple sources familiar with the situation told Semafor. Trump has not yet made a formal announcement of Bondi’s replacement, but one …
For tomorrow market – I see premiums are really bullish. When I check option by option I see this First image: FULL BEAR MODE, $SPY PUTS AT 675Second: FULL BEAR MODE, shorting $SPY calls at 684 But the third: some …
💥BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Democrats plan to impeach and remove both Trump and Vance if they win the 2026 midterms. According to Polymarket, Democrats currently have an 81% chance to win the midterms. pic.twitter.com/hhQEgmUJNW — Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) January 31, 2026 Multiple …
Don’t be a late bull.The building may look strong, but its foundation weakens day by day.Dollar Index at all-time lows.Gold at all-time highs.Market at all-time highs — yet small caps haven’t reclaimed theirs.Inflation ticking up but Fed expected to cut …
Anyone else seeing this candle?? pic.twitter.com/FjKfXfD1Ex — Jim Carroll (@vixologist) May 15, 2025 DAX Update Impressive run High probability of an aggressive pullback. pic.twitter.com/ROjs0IrZKN — The Great Martis (@great_martis) May 15, 2025 $IWM Something has to give right here, right …
Junk bond yields have exploded pic.twitter.com/F8Slv78mou — The Great Martis (@great_martis) April 7, 2025 High-yield spreads are blowing out…$SPY $TLT pic.twitter.com/zV75YPlXh5 — Fibonacci Investing⚡️ (@FibonacciInves1) April 7, 2025 Market distress is skyrocketing: US high-yield corporate bond spreads are up 100 …
by Euro347 https://en.macromicro.me/collections/4238/us-federal/77/probability-fed-rate-hike My guess is J Powell states tariffs will cause inflation on goods and services in next weeks press conference, Trump opposes Powell. PCE will be al little hot, same as in Europe then Next Saturday, Feb 1st …
pic.twitter.com/AjAiL7vFzA — Saw Chuck (@Saw_Chuck2023) December 25, 2024 RCH Fed: manufacturing contracts again in Dec w/ employment, new orders, and shipments all falling; although firms expect significantly better conditions 6 months from now, the sector is currently still hemorrhaging: pic.twitter.com/WQrxj4k76c …
Forming in the West Caribbean and traveling thru the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf of Mexico. Heading NE into South Florida. GFS has 957mb at landfall. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2024111200&fh=6 Forecast track and intensity may change on future GFS runs, but stay vigilant. …
🚨MARKET PRICING SIGNALS A 100% PROBABILITY OF US RECESSION🚨 The market is currently pricing in over 2.00% Fed rate cuts within 12 months, the most since the Financial Crisis. This implies a 100% probability of a recession in the next …
There is going to be a major depression after the election regardless of who wins. It is going to be far worse than the great depression in 1929. Nothing and no one can stop it. It is far too late …
What PredictIt says this morning: – Trump has 61% probability to win the race. Highest ever.– Biden has 20% probability to win. Lowest ever.– The “Other” option, at 19%, is on the verge to become the second most likely option. …
The probability of an outright contraction keeps getting higher and higher with each successive release. Ford projecting a *30%* decrease in commercial chassis orders: What this means: If you're ordering fewer chassis, you're likely producing fewer vehicles. But 30% is …
by GreggraffinCI https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2023/12/three-measures-of-us-credit-card-debt/#:~:text=In%202023%2C%20outstanding%20credit%20card,for%20consumer%20spending%20going%20forward. From a disposable income standpoint the Fed data agrees that the consumer is better able to service their debt now than they ever have. That peaked during the stimmie checks but that gap has closed from -25% …
Source: https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/credit-access#/financial-fragility1 Wut Mean?: Overall Decline in Consumer Credit Demand (2023): General weakening in most credit application rates. Credit card limit increase applications rose. Rejection Rates Trends: Overall rise in rejection rates for credit applications. Decline in rejection rates for …
by ChampionshipUsed9855 The probability of a recession in the next 12 months is 56.2%. This means that there is a more than 50% chance that the economy will contract in the next year. The odds are highest in over 10 …
by TonyLiberty Invest consistently and think independently
by Dismal-Jellyfish Wut mean?: On the flipside, this means 66.1% of retail investors and 56.03% of institutional investors believe the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S., like that of October 28, 1929 or October 19, …
by marketsimulator Source: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html#/overview The yield curve as a leading indicator uses the 10y-3mo value to predict the probability of recession. July report came out last week and May ’24 is higher than any time in the last 40 years at …
To be clear I shouldn’t of said 43 million, that’s all Americans with student loans. According to Forbes 6.4m are still in school and 500k are making payments. So about 36 million is a more accurate number. Concept remains the …
Energy stocks are only 5% away from recent highs. If historical correlations matter, it is hard to believe oil won't follow the same path. That alone would imply a 48% return from its current levels. As a crucial contributor to …
Source: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html#/overview The yield curve as a leading indicator uses the 10y-3mo value to predict the probability of recession. July report came out a couple days ago and May ’24 is higher than any time in the last 40 years at …
Source: https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election_in_Washington,_D.C.,_2020 Question: If 5.4% of voters from a certain city are Republicans, what is the probability that a randomly picked twelve-person jury of people who live in that city will have one Republican? AI answer: To calculate the probability …
Warning: The probability of a recession is at its highest level since the early 1980s pic.twitter.com/1XmuWtjmdW — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 12, 2023 Business inventories are a leading indicator of inflation A continued decline in inventories indicates lower inflation However, …
The banks are raising FTP rates in anticipation. No one wants a loan right now. I wouldn’t be surprised if housing crashes by 2024. h/t Hephaestus4
“We’re now at an average 62% chance of a recession by May 2024” The probability of a recession has skyrocketed to levels last seen in the 1980s We’re now at an average 62% chance of a recession by May 2024 …
by BoatSurfer600 Source: Zen Second Life
Top Chart: Over the past +50 years, the inversions of the 50 day SMA of the 10 year treasury rates minus the 50 day SMA of the 3 month treasury rates have all preceded the start of a U.S. …
