Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Blue line marks 2Y10Y yield curve inversion bottom. Red line marks SPY correction bottom. White bar is constant period in between. The Labor market is telling us something. 👇🏼 Who’s listening? pic.twitter.com/oM1Gt8KUjL — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) August 14, 2024 h/t mrmrmrj
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is about to surpass the yield on the 2-year Treasury note, reversing the previous condition where the 2-year yield was higher than the 10-year yield. Implications: Economic Sentiment Shift: An inverted yield curve (where short-term yields are higher than long-term yields) often signals a lack of confidence in …
by confoundedinterest17 Shape of things. Thw Fed will likely cut rates shortly helping the flagging mortgage market The US Treasury yield curve, of Jay Powell and The Blackhearts, .js the least inverted in 2 years, signalling an impending Fed rate cut. The Fed loves manipulating interest rates!
The last time CCC/B diverged, it was the dot-com warningHigh yield bond option-adjusted spreads, bps pic.twitter.com/sDAF8NwPHI — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) July 17, 2024 $NVDA insider sales… https://t.co/YEvN9BqB3t pic.twitter.com/7AlhT8f5Yz — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) July 16, 2024 How big the Magnificent 7 has become? The Magnificent 7's market cap is higher than any non-US stock market in …
We are now in the longest yield curve inversion on record without a recession. byu/nobjos inwallstreetbets
This means that the yield on the 2-year Treasury note is higher than that on the 10-year Treasury bond, which is unusual and often seen as a predictor of economic recession. An extended yield curve inversion suggests that investors expect slower economic growth and potentially lower interest rates in the future, indicating a lack of …
Japan's yield curve is going parabolic. As soon as they start dumping U.S. treasuries to prevent their currency from collapsing, the U.S. yield curve goes parabolic as well. https://t.co/L8TZwJ1fgM pic.twitter.com/z2Dt2sqk7q — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) July 2, 2024
5-year correlation of USD/JPY v. 10y UST yield suggests 10y yield could head back toward 5%. Problem is US can't afford Interest, Entitlements, & Cold War 2.0 at a 5% 10y w/o more USD liquidity. Translation: Weak JPY is as much the Fed's & Treasury's problem as it is the BOJ's. pic.twitter.com/1LKDLWP1WV — Luke Gromen …
The China 10-Year Government Bond Yield recently reached its lowest point in nearly 22 years. As of the latest update on June 21, 2024, the yield stands at 2.267%1. This yield represents the annual return that investors can expect if they hold the bond until its maturity in 10 years. China's 10-Year Bond Yield just dropped to its lowest …
by dkrich People will explain this away in various ways but the reality is that throughout history when the yield on the S&P 500 gets to relative extreme lows, forward returns are very poor. The bottom line is that the market is very expensive right now. The yield can (and probably will) go a bit …
French Bond Yield Premium soars to highest level in 7 years 🚨 pic.twitter.com/8ZmLy0ZPz1 — Barchart (@Barchart) June 14, 2024 🇫🇷 #France #Stocks | Since June 6 (close), French small and mid caps are down >7% while big caps (CAC 40) are down ~5% – Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/60BUoofU9W — Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) June 14, 2024
Japan's fiscal + monetary foundations are cracking. Everyone should be aware how a breakage will affect global capital flows and their family's wealth. $JPY pic.twitter.com/TCOWHUeGCt — IceCap (@IceCapGlobal) May 31, 2024 It looks like the #BOJ (Directly or through proxy bonks) is back at playing with currency swaps to tame the raise of the $JPY …
The Japanese 10 year yield hit a 10 year high this week on rate hike bets:https://t.co/TZXAnaEC3e“The 10-year yield has risen gradually on the back of view that the BOJ will lift interest rates sooner and cut bond-purchase amounts at its operations” Meanwhile, the U.S. 10 year… pic.twitter.com/FXS79f69CL — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) May 24, 2024 2023 was …
In a startling turn of events, the Japanese 30-year yield has soared past 2%, reaching its highest level since 2011. This financial milestone, combined with the USDJPY’s stubborn persistence around 156.5 despite softer CPI, weaker NFP data, and a $60 billion intervention, paints a grim picture for the global economy. Key Points: The Japanese 30-year …
The S&P 500 is near an ATH while the S&P 500 Earnings Yield has collapsed and is at 2008 levels and still moving lower. 👇🏼 But please, tell me how all this is bullish. pic.twitter.com/PCS1zak6lz — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) May 20, 2024 Nvidia earnings will be the apex of a global super crash. Nvidia …
By their estimates if the Fed does this the 10 year yield could go to 6-8%. RIP housing if this were to play out. Borrowing costs would go through the roof. Linkhttps://t.co/Sagaj8UGhD pic.twitter.com/F8Y5a498TO — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 19, 2024 Fed’s $7.3 trillion balance sheet is worrying the world’s largest asset manager. Here’s why. Changes …
by betsharks0 In this case, the interest rates on 10-year bonds higher than s&p It could suggest that people are becoming less worried about the immediate future compared to the long-term outlook. IN RECESSION Scenario: If the yield curve is normalizing during a recession, might be due to the belief that the worst of the …
The reversion will be interesting. Either the long-term bills rate increases sharply, or the short yields plunge. I wonder which will happen? h/t Ok_Significance_4008
The current state of the market reveals concerning trends, as the Dow struggles to maintain upward momentum, with each rally attempt met by afternoon declines. This pattern, coupled with the VIX’s significantly lower level compared to previous market peaks, suggests a market environment characterized by extreme complacency. Such conditions, reminiscent of periods preceding market crashes, …
Despite expectations of inflation tapering, the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge surpasses 8%, highlighting ongoing economic strains. March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) records a significant uptick at 3.5%, the highest since September 2023, with Core CPI outperforming forecasts for four consecutive months at 3.8%. Amidst this backdrop, concerns loom over the sustainability of rising power …
Hilarious moment from last month. Marjorie Taylor Greene to Jamie Raskin. No. I will not yield to one of your stupid questions.pic.twitter.com/MTCYfXi7wn — Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) April 1, 2024
The USA is currently experiencing the longest and steepest yield curve inversion in recorded history between the 10-year Treasury Note and 3-month Treasury Bill. Historical data shows that such inversions have preceded economic recessions. The prolonged inversion is seen as “smart money” signaling skepticism about the Federal Reserve’s narrative on inflation. This skepticism raises questions …
by confoundedinterest17 President Biden still shuffles around mumbling about Maga Republicans and defending democracy (while gettig his DOJ and affiliates to prosecute his leading Presidential opponent) even though …. consumers continue to struggle. While Biden is in wonderland, American consumers are in hell. Savings as a percentage of GDP is actually NEGATIVE as sticky price …
by confoundedinterest17 The Fed had better think twice about expected rate cuts. The market just isn’t feeling it. Treasury yields rose Wednesday, with the 10-year yield touching almost 4.10% as investors focused on stronger-than-expected December retail sales and the latest remarks from Federal Reserve members. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was recently up 4 basis points at …
A trader recently dropped a cool $16.7 million on about 250,000 call contracts tied to the VIX Index, betting on increased stock market volatility. This isn’t your average move – the strike price is 17, expiring on Feb. 14. With the VIX not breaking 17 since November, it’s got everyone buzzing. Seems our trader senses …
by confoundedinterest17 Are US financial conditions loose as a goose? Despite resilience in US data, 30Y Yields have plunged back below the 4.00% Maginot Line this morning… Source: Bloomberg The last few weeks have seen US macro data reverse its recent trend of disappointment… Source: Bloomberg The long-end of the curve is outperforming… Source: Bloomberg But, …
That’s a massive chunk of cash now ready to spend! Money Market Funds Record: $1.3 Trillion has flowed into money market funds this year, the largest amount in history pic.twitter.com/VRylKN9kLw — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) December 24, 2023
by mrmrmrj This chart demonstrates the historical relationship between yield curve inversions and subsequent recessions. As you can see, there is a strong correlation between the two phenomena. In other words, when the yield curve inverted (i.e., when short-term interest rates rose above long-term interest rates), a recession soon followed. This suggests that an inverted …
In a significant market development, the 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury Yield Curve has remained inverted for a historic 278 consecutive trading days, marking the longest inversion in financial history. The inversion has deepened recently, reaching its lowest point since August, adding to economic uncertainty. Notably, Broadcom has emerged as a front-runner in the semiconductor industry, …
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