Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
US is leading the way on this, unfortunately. If the US refinanced its current debt load ($33.827 trillion) at the yield on 10-year US Treasury bond (4.38%), interest expense would be $1.48 trillion, 50% higher than the top of this skyrocketing chart.https://t.co/MLnYFsU229 — David Sommers (@dgsommersmkts) November 28, 2023 $2 Trillion is the interest on …
In a significant move, the European Parliament has voted in favor of the Migration Pact, a decision that diminishes the sovereignty of individual countries. This grants the EU Commission the power to enforce “mandatory migrant relocation quotas” per country, a development that raises concerns about the erosion of national independence and decision-making aligned with citizens’ …
by confoundedinterest17 The Federal Reserve reminds me of The Stones’ song “Tumbling Dice.” Why? The Fed can’t tell if inflation is cooling or re-accelerating. Hence, they are just rolling dice. Let’s start with mortgage rates, a critical component of the housing and CRE markets. Mortgage rates remain up 163% since 2021, not great for housing affordability. Despite …
The economic landscape is marked by several concerning indicators, as evidenced by the S&P 500 margins trending lower, reflecting potential challenges for companies. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reports a deterioration in sales, indicating a worsening scenario for small businesses. Additionally, a growing number of companies are expressing concerns about weak demand, adding …
by demonbeanie The banking system is facilitated by uncollateralized debt; fractional reserve banking, which had seen the reduction of the reserve requirements to 0% in 2020. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm On your bank’s balance sheet, there are assets labeled “cash on hand,” which includes cash and cash equivalents which is physical dollars, MM accounts, CDs, Short-term gov bonds, and …
by j_stars Is this why the treasury had to borrow 782 bill from the fed this quarter and the next because nobody is showing up for the bond auctions?
Verified document from Israeli Ministry of Intelligence on October 13 suggests forced displacement of Gaza civilians to Egypt would "yield positive and long term strategic results" The advisory document envisions a three stage process including the establishment of tent cities… pic.twitter.com/T5JWp9QGkv — WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) October 30, 2023
The rapid steepening of the yield curve from inverted levels suggests an impending economic downturn. Caution: Yield curve has begun steepening rapidly from inverted levels This brings the economy closer to an economic downturn Buckle up pic.twitter.com/JfBgBxOZgq — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 29, 2023 BREAKING: Americans spent money at the fastest rate in nearly two …
by TonyLiberty The fact that cash now provides a better return on investment suggests a significant change in market dynamics in terms of risk vs. reward. When cash is paying a higher yield than stocks, it means that investors are willing to accept a lower return on their investment in order to have access to …
by confoundedinterest17 Fire! Yes, Biden and Congress created a fire with it reckless Federal spending leading in 40-year highs inflation, prompting The Fed to counterattack with rapid rate hikes. We now see the 10-year Treasury yield passing 5%. And the REAL 10-year Treasury yield passing 2.46%. And Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage rate survey is at 7.63%, …
Mortgage rates are now officially TRIPLE where they were just 2 years ago. However, the median sales price of a home continues to rise. Affordability is so bad that not even investors can afford to buy. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 17, 2023 US …
https://twitter.com/Kacper_PK_CH/status/1713631923891745067 https://twitter.com/JustinRose/status/1713736857622651300
by confoundedinterest17 Like President Biden enjoying a barbeque at The White House with a live band (probably NOT Justin Moore singing “Small Town USA”) while Hamas declared war on Israel and Americans are being held hostage with the promise of public executions of hostages livestreamed. Nothing that “Empathy Joe” does ever surprises me anymore, but I …
Source: BlackRock 2023 global outlook Q4 update https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/literature/whitepaper/bii-global-outlook-in-charts.pdf The S&P 500 earnings yield is a measure of how much income investors are receiving per dollar invested in the stock market. It is calculated by dividing the total earnings of the companies in the index by the price of the index. As you can see from the …
by confoundedinterest17 Alarm! US Treasury yields are a runaway train. The 30-year Treasury yield is soaring and rose above 5% … again. First time since 2007, just before the financial crisis and The Great Recession. The 30Y-5Y yield curve is steepening.
Student loan payments start again this month, and mortgage rates just hit 8%. My company is usually a little high, even Rocket Mortgage is showing 7.846% with 2.25 points. Not fear mongering, but its gonna be a “winter of death”. Biden got it right, but was talking about the market, not the COVID. h/t Mediocre-Bits
by DesmondMilesDant Historically, a bull steepener with the short end of the curve dropping is what typically correlates with bear markets. A bear steepening of the yield curve with LTTs selling off indicates the bond market thinks the economy is running strong (or at least stronger than what was previously thought), which in a roundabout …
by confoundedinterest17 Freddie Mac’s mortgage rate is up to 7.31%, the highest level since December 2000. That means that mortgage rates are up 69% under Biden. That is in spite of $2.5 TRILLION in agency MBS being held on The Fed’s balance sheet. As the 10-year Treasury yield is up to 4.67%.
‘Higher for longer’ tracking for much higher default rates. The free money has been taken away by the Fed. All yields are taking a dump on the party. Central planners at the FED have really done it. Onset of the Economic Avalanche Becomes Clear https://jensendavid.substack.com/p/onset-of-the-economic-avalanche-becomes h/t j_stars
The 10-year note yield is skyrocketing and now at 4.63%, its highest since June 2007. Since last week’s Fed meeting, the 10-year note yield is up 35 basis points. Since the last Fed rate hike in July, the 10-year note yield is up 60 basis points. Interest rates on just about… pic.twitter.com/7bsPQk30ma — The Kobeissi …
by confoundedinterest17 Maui Joe Biden received a lot of help from his friends at The Federal Reserve! Thanks to the crippling effects of Bidenomics (Fed easing then tightening to combat inflation caused by insane green spending and a war in Ukraine), US mortgage rates (conforming 30-year) has increased 159%. On the yield curve side, the …
by Ok_Significance_4008 I asked Bard and that’s what it said: A rising 10-year Treasury yield can have a number of implications for stocks. First, it can make it more expensive for companies to borrow money, which can weigh on their earnings. Second, it can make stocks less attractive to investors who are looking for income, …
by confoundedinterest17 This is very strange. Global Treasury Yields just rose to a 15-year high (2008). This is primarily due to Central Bank moneta And REAL 10-year Treasury yields also the highest since 2009. At the same time, US industrial production is at the same level as pre-financial crisis (2007). Despite Federal Reserve monetary stimulypto …
⚠️10YR yield high of day 4.274% New 20 year high pic.twitter.com/H0k7d5a0QG — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) August 16, 2023 The $tip etf is at the October lows. $qqq seems terribly mispriced, and that gap needs to close. pic.twitter.com/egSgaaxTsS — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) August 16, 2023 Wen financial Armageddon pic.twitter.com/iSYwaXCF0U — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) August 16, …
The 10-year Treasury yield has been rising aggressively on the back of stronger-than-expected economic data This is a major headwind for equities pic.twitter.com/C0Xc2ZAf8x — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 14, 2023 https://twitter.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1691087531813515264 #Bonds are starting to look bad… US Treasury term premia (black) are breaking higher and pushing 10y yields up (orange). This isn't good for …
by confoundedinterest17 We are back in the USSR! And the economy taking commands from Washington DC! Introduction During the COVID-19 pandemic the occurrence of remote work jumped, out of sheer necessity. The technology was already available, but the pandemic accelerated its adoption and bypassed the hesitation of employers to allow people working from home. In many cases, …
Source: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html#/overview The yield curve as a leading indicator uses the 10y-3mo value to predict the probability of recession. July report came out a couple days ago and May ’24 is higher than any time in the last 40 years at 70.85%. This is not the fed’s official prediction but is a tool they build and …
