The correlation is not perfect every time, but it is well-supported by data and market behavior over multiple cycles.
One more final push and bonds switch to bullish.
Here's the 10Y. Right on the edge of resistance.$TLT pic.twitter.com/ZJly6dvUAe
— Fibonacci Investing⚡️ (@FibonacciInves1) June 24, 2025
You are here. Right before a HUGE Fed rate cut brough on by slowing economic data.
Very eerie similarities.
History rhymes.$TLT pic.twitter.com/yHGHkAiWZa
— Fibonacci Investing⚡️ (@FibonacciInves1) June 24, 2025
The US Money Supply grew 4.5% over the last year, the biggest YoY increase since July 2022.
After a brief hiatus, money printing is back. pic.twitter.com/BrdeU9DtuO
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) June 24, 2025
Every recession in the last 35 years started with a violent drop in the 2-year yield.
We’re not there yet, but we’re dancing on the edge.
The 10Y-2Y spread is bull-steepening. If the 2Y breaks lower, it signals the Fed has lost control.
That’s your cue. Watch it closely. pic.twitter.com/btuVnu3xmk
— Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) June 24, 2025
🚨US economic activity is deteriorating:
The US Economic Surprise index dropped to the lowest level in 9 months.
This means most economic data came BELOW average consensus expectations.
Most recently, on Tuesday, US retail sales and industrial production readings disappointed. pic.twitter.com/2SezCBSykC
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) June 18, 2025
A surprise drop in US consumer confidence suggests that job fears are trumping the rebound in equity markets right now. Sentiment is currently consistent with spending growth of just 0.5% QoQ annualized. pic.twitter.com/oxPa4RafCT
— James Knightley (@Knightleyeco) June 24, 2025