The 30-year just broke out of its 3-month range. If it keeps rising, it may turn from a range bounce into a rising trend.
US 10-year bond yield is set for its biggest weekly gain since June 2025.
Despite Fed cutting rates, 10-year bond yield is above 4%.
Not a good sign for risk-on assets. pic.twitter.com/UGwcWPR9mD
— Ted (@TedPillows) December 5, 2025
Why is the Fed cutting rates despite all the inflation noise?
The market has spoken: the Fed IS going to cut rates next week. That's also the bad news.
For all the noise from various Fed creatures talking up tariff inflation, in the end what actually matters is the real economics of the labor market. There are too many warning signs… pic.twitter.com/gzT3OQ44Ek
— Jeffrey P. Snider (@JeffSnider_EDU) December 5, 2025
US 10yr
US 30yrThe US 30yr has broken the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders formation. Now we await the 10yr. pic.twitter.com/IRXyjgjzws
— The Great Martis (@great_martis) December 5, 2025
The bond market is still cranky despite PCE coming in at expectations and a Fed rate cut coming next week.
They remain worried about Hassett, the deficit, and the risk of inflation as we cut rates. pic.twitter.com/EC7GyyeXM4
— QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) December 5, 2025
“I think we’re looking at a Golden year in American economic history, provided we don’t get some sort of random Black Swan disrupt..ion” -Kevin Hassett
What a strange statement to make.
Black Swan you say?
A random Black Swan event, like a massive stock market crash due to… pic.twitter.com/TfS333eU8O
— MrBujok (@BujokMr) December 5, 2025
The Fed started cutting rates in Sep 2024 with the 30-yr yield below 4%.
They've now cut 150 bps and the 30-yr is at 4.8%.
The Fed may be done with inflation, but inflation isn’t done with the Fed.
If long yields keep rising, they won’t admit a policy mistake – they’ll just… pic.twitter.com/wW3hzhkYff
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) December 5, 2025
The 10-year yield has been in a downtrend of lower highs and lower lows since May, highlighted below.
It made its first higher low at the end of November, and now, at 4.14%, it is on the verge of breaking out of this channel.
Will it hold this channel again? pic.twitter.com/HL6pPvnXxU
— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) December 5, 2025
Going into FOMC next week,
– VIX dropping to 15-handle
– 2Y +11bp over the past two weeksNormal logic suggests only one of them is right.
— Mr. VIX (@yieldsearcher) December 5, 2025
BOFA: MARKET COULD SOON PRICE A JANUARY FED CUT
Bank of America says markets may start betting more aggressively on a January rate cut, despite the Fed’s cautious messaging. The bank expects a 25bp cut in December with tougher guidance and several dissents, along with…
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) December 5, 2025