Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
View post on imgur.com https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/06/irans-nuclear-facilities-have-been-obliterated-and-suggestions-otherwise-are-fake-news/ Hilarious, ain’t it. h/t dr0id
Reminder: Last time Trump said he was giving Iran "2 weeks" was Fri June 20, 2025…. He struck Iran on June 22…pic.twitter.com/ydSUvnElpj https://t.co/NY7IS1UAxF — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) February 19, 2026 ⚡BREAKING 🇺🇸🇮🇷 According to The Washington Post, the United States has quietly alerted its Middle Eastern allies about the potential for a large scale regional conflict …
The U.S. trade deficit retreated in October to its narrowest since June 2009 pic.twitter.com/fPWdEM8eGQ — Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) January 8, 2026 The recession is coming? Very well explained. This has been in the works since 2022. It's just continuing the business cycle which was short-circuited by COVID stimulus. The cycle is back on track. It's …
The 30-year just broke out of its 3-month range. If it keeps rising, it may turn from a range bounce into a rising trend. US 10-year bond yield is set for its biggest weekly gain since June 2025. Despite Fed cutting rates, 10-year bond yield is above 4%. Not a good sign for risk-on assets. …
Inflation rose in June to 2.6 percent annually, higher than economists expected. The Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, showed prices increasing as tariffs on imported goods pushed costs up. Vanguard analysts said, “Core goods … should reflect substantial growth due to tariffs, especially on sensitive categories like household furnishings …
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% month-over-month, matching forecasts and doubling May’s 0.1% print. Year-over-year, CPI hit 2.7%, the highest since January. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed 0.2% on the month and 2.9% on the year. That’s three straight months of acceleration. The Federal Reserve’s target is 2%. We’re above it. Energy …
by Michael What in the world just happened to the job market? The unexpectedly bad numbers that have just come in have truly been a shock to many of us. Yes, we knew that conditions were getting worse during the early stages of this year. In fact, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has …
April to June 2008: There was a brief dip in expectations as some believed the worst might have passed and markets slightly stabilized. — Citizen Watch Report (@Citizenwatchrep) May 13, 2025 Once again, the #recession never came. Economists and markets spent much of the past year bracing for a downturn—citing rate #hikes, inverted #yield curves, …
According to Goldman Sachs, inflation is about to imminently take off and not stop accelerating until June 2026. I’m sure this will sell very well heading into the midterms. pic.twitter.com/8Q8EI2rrPe — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) May 7, 2025
BREAKING: 44.4% of home sellers gave concessions to buyers in March, near the highest share on record. The percentage has increased by ~10 points since July 2024 and has DOUBLED since June 2022. In Seattle, 71.3% of sellers gave concessions, the highest share among the 24 major metropolitan areas. This was followed by 63.9% and …
Polymarket currently has odds at 30% for a U.S.-China trade deal before June—who’s out here betting Yes with both sides not even talking ATM? pic.twitter.com/sWgxVyeSvG — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) April 24, 2025 China considering removing tariffs on industrial chemicals like ethane: BBG https://t.co/8vpZMvBck8 — zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 25, 2025 Trump: "it would be physically impossible to …
via Mike Shedlock Let’s investigate Fed Fund Futures and rate cut expectations. The above chart is adapted from May and June CME Fedwatch Futures. The next Fed meeting is on May 7. As of March 23, the market thinks there is only a 22.1 percent chance of a single quarter-point cut. But if we further out …
King Willem-Alexander is inviting all the NATO leaders that are attending the NATO Summit at the end of June in The Hague to a dinner at his residential palace, the Huis ten Bosch, he said during an interview on Wednesday. “The NATO Summit is extremely important for NATO and the Netherlands, and we assume that …
$20,000,000 Worth of $NVDA 130 puts SOLD today Nearing the Bottom? pic.twitter.com/LbgnMMtKnt — John Trades MBA (@JPATrades) January 10, 2025 Whale just added June $SPY $525p for $16M. pic.twitter.com/YhiEcsb77f — blake (@blakestonks) January 10, 2025
Joe Biden discussed pardoning his son Hunter 6 months ago while he was publicly claiming he would not issue Hunter a pardon or commute his sentences. On Sunday, outgoing White House resident Joe Biden issued a full and unconditional pardon to his son, Hunter Biden, absolving him of any federal crimes committed between 2014 and …
The Fed’s fight against inflation is still not over: Supercore inflation CPI increased by 4.7% year-over-year in June, slightly down from 4.8% in May. Supercore inflation is an important gauge that the Fed follows which includes Core services less housing. Despite the first… pic.twitter.com/iJoeD9yv1z — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 31, 2024 Supercore Inflation: This …
In June, both the ISM Manufacturing Index and the ISM Services Index fell below 49. These indices are important indicators of economic activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, respectively. When the index value is below 50, it suggests contraction in the sector. The decline in both indices may signal challenges or slowdowns in these areas of the U.S. …
"Global economic growth acceleration pauses in June, as expansions in output and new orders slow."@SPGlobalPMI pic.twitter.com/b8Q70xKBvN — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) July 8, 2024
$TSLA TESLA CHINA DELIVERS 71,007 VEHICLES IN JUNE, DOWN 24.2% China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) unveiled on Tuesday that Tesla delivered 71,007 vehicles in June, down 24.2% on a yearly basis. In the first half of the year, Tesla China sold 426,623 vehicles, down 10.47%… — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) July 2, 2024 BEIJING, July 2 …
HONG KONG — China’s manufacturing activity contracted for the second consecutive month in June, as investors pin their hopes on a key Communist Party meeting in mid-July to revive the sluggish economy. The country’s benchmark purchasing managers’ index came in at 49.5 for the month, the National Bureau of Statistics announced on Sunday. The reading …
“Overprotected as they are, a lot of city kids are missing out on so many important encounters with material reality: with death or danger or manual labor. These encounters can be unpleasant, even painful. It’s understandable that we want to save our children from them. But they lose something essential when we do.” Plus: “Here’s …
Meteorologists in Miami, it is fair to say, are accustomed to drama: sunny-day flooding, severe rainstorms, strong hurricanes. So it is telling — and scary — that they seem at a loss for words to describe the extreme heat that the city experienced over the past few days, a full month ahead of summer. “It’s completely crazy, what …
Discussions on the use of frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine are still ongoing. A collective decision will be announced at the G7 summit, says Denys Maliuska, Minister of Justice of Ukraine. “The US has taken the first important step. They have decided to authorize the US administration to confiscate Russian assets. In full, not …
The 2023-24 term at the Supreme Court will close out regularly scheduled oral arguments with three high-profile disputes over the interpretation of the federal criminal law that is at the center of Special Counsel Jack Smith’s prosecution of former President Donald Trump, the constitutionality of an Oregon city’s law regulating camping on public property, and …
