The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% month-over-month, matching forecasts and doubling May’s 0.1% print. Year-over-year, CPI hit 2.7%, the highest since January. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed 0.2% on the month and 2.9% on the year. That’s three straight months of acceleration. The Federal Reserve’s target is 2%. We’re above it.
Energy was the pressure point. Gasoline rose 1.0%. Electricity jumped 1.0%. Natural gas added 0.5%. Fuel oil ticked up 1.3%. The energy index rose 0.9% in June after falling 1.0% in May. Over the past year, electricity is up 5.8%. Natural gas is up 14.2%. Gasoline is still down 8.3% year-over-year, but the monthly bounce is real. The twelve-day war between Israel and Iran pushed oil futures higher. That ripple hit utilities and transport.
It can't be said enough: we need to get energy prices down (they rose in Jun) – it's a ubiquitous input that affects prices throughout the economy; we're not getting any help from fiscal or monetary policy, so this is a necessity for bringing down inflation… https://t.co/GBOqutgPGE pic.twitter.com/1tvxQOSl1t
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) July 15, 2025
Import prices stayed flat in May and barely moved in June. Tariff-sensitive categories like furniture and apparel rose modestly, but the broader CPI surge came from energy and shelter. Food rose 0.3%. Medical care climbed 0.5%. Household furnishings surged 1.0%. Apparel increased 0.4%. Used cars dropped 0.7%. New vehicles fell 0.3%. Airline fares dipped 0.1%. Shelter rose 0.2%. The mix is uneven, but the direction is clear.
BREAKING: President Trump calls for an unprecedented 300 basis point Fed interest rate cut.
By comparison, the largest ever individual Fed rate cut was 100 basis points in March 2020. pic.twitter.com/kncfKuXLTW
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 15, 2025
The Fed meets July 30. Rate cuts are off the table. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 97.4% probability that rates stay at 4.25% to 4.5%. Trump wants cuts. Powell isn’t moving. Fiscal policy is frozen. Liquidity is thinning.
Sources
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07152025.htm
https://www.aol.com/finance/inflation-accelerated-june-fed-weighs-123239045.html
https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/cpi-inflation-report-june-grocery-gas-prices-2025
https://www.floordaily.net/flooring-news/inflation-picks-up-again-in-june
https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/07/15/price-inflation-heating-up-based-on-june-cpi-004199
https://www.ksl.com/article/51345880/consumer-prices-increase-as-expected-in-june