Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Almost nobody looks at this chart… but it’s one of my favorite ways to spot when a move may be running on fumes. This is a simple 60‑minute line chart of high yield vs SPY. I use it to track divergences between “smart money” (bonds) and “dumb money” (equities). The last major signal was at …
29% chance they reach a deal by the end of the month. https://t.co/UqL2cQIROS — Polymarket (@Polymarket) April 11, 2026 إيران المفاوضات مع الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية وصلت إلى طريق مسدود — عاجل من إيران 🇮🇷 (@A_G_L_G) April 11, 2026 BREAKING: Iran and the US made no progress in the latest round of Islamabad talks, per Fars …
BREAKING: A foreign female journalist was kidnapped in Baghdad on Tuesday by unknown parties, the Iraqi interior ministry said. The kidnapped journalist holds a US passport, according to two Iraqi police sources. pic.twitter.com/uQNQc5TZ7m — Al Jazeera Breaking News (@AJENews) March 31, 2026 ‘The pursuit resulted in the interception of a vehicle belonging to the kidnappers, …
h/t @KnoxieLuv Search the files: https://t.co/D75u1M5pXB — Epstein File Search (@epsteinsearchin) March 11, 2026 Factcheck: The FBI reportedly received a complaint on August 8, 2019 that Oren and Tal Alexander raped women at Jeffrey Epstein’s residence. That case was closed at the time. Now, all three Alexander brothers have been convicted of sex trafficking. This …
JUST IN 🇮🇷 ❌ 🇺🇸 🔥 The Iranian IRGC has announced the launch of its first intercontinental (ICBM) missiles from the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. pic.twitter.com/zcrxNo1wcQ — Defence Journal (@Defence_Journl) March 3, 2026 BREAKING | 🇮🇷 Iran unveils new long-range missile Iran announced the unveiling of a new missile described as having …
Los Angeles with clean air due to CA refinery regulations. pic.twitter.com/3ADx3MruYL — California Sun (@Californiada9pr) February 25, 2026 California drivers are paying $4.63 a gallon. That is 23 cents more than Hawaii and $1.65 above Maryland. AAA and GasBuddy confirm the numbers. State energy rules are clearly inflating prices far beyond other blue states. This …
⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️CNN REPORTS U.S. FORCES ARE BEING TRANSFERRED FROM BRITAIN, INCLUDING REFUELING AIRCRAFT AND FIGHTER JETS, TO THE MIDDLE EAST. — NYPrepper (@nyprepper1) February 17, 2026 Factcheck: Yes, CNN reported on Feb 16, 2026, that US Air Force assets based in the UK, including refueling tankers and fighter jets, are being repositioned to the Middle East …
$SPY $SPX a close above 685-6870 is bullish, between 683-685 6870-6850 is neutral, and below 683-6850 is bearish. I’ll be all cash into the weekend. I only took a put scalp in the morning at the spx highs down to 6863 and that was it. I think next week will be bloody red… pic.twitter.com/cJuk4HgZtJ — …
Bitcoin is still in a downtrend, still making lower highs/lower lows and still warning the entire market but most traders won’t recognize it until it’s 30% lower. Yes, #Bitcoin may push toward $97–$100K. That lower high is still on the table. But none of that changes the thesis going into January. A counter trend rally …
For the record, U.S. stocks peaked in October 2007 and the economy entered recession in December 2007. As of now, the S&P 500 peaked in October. ADP private payroll job creation year to date is at the same level it was at when the GFC recession started. Is the AI super bubble killing jobs? It’s …
This is the biggest scandal of my lifetime. Steve Baker did what an $11 billion dollar agency, the FBI, could not do… or worse yet, covered up. He identified the J6 pipe bomber, and she wasn’t working alone.@FBIDirectorKash needs to make a statement tomorrow when this breaks. https://t.co/I980fIMFSr — Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) November 8, 2025 …
LIBERALS: "GEORGIA DOES NOT HAVE A CRIME PROBLEM." GEORGIA: pic.twitter.com/ebKpEmCxyo — Politics On 𝕏 (@PoliticsOnX) September 23, 2025 BREAKING: Active shooter reported at Augusta Mall in Richmond County, Georgia, with multiple casualties. — The General (@GeneralMCNews) September 23, 2025 “Three shots were let off shortly after 1pm on Tuesday afternoon at Augusta Mall,” reported the …
Leaked military files have confirmed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost more than 1.7 million troops, including both those killed and missing, since the outbreak of full scale hostilities between the country and Russia in February 2022. A digital card index acquired by hacker groups from Ukraine’s Chief of Staff has provided details on …
Trump just tore into Chuck Grassley not over policy, but over perceived weakness. On Truth Social, he mocked the Iowa senator for clinging to the Senate’s blue slip tradition, a rule that lets home-state senators block federal judge nominees. Trump posted, “Can someone please explain to this guy that the ‘Blue Slip’ is killing us?”truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114938820270436889 …
What did the S&P 500 bottoms from the 2018 Christmas Eve Crash, the Covid Crash, and the 2022 bear market have in common? Your answer can be found below. I'll see you at the next extremes. 🍻🍻 pic.twitter.com/cZUYXmF7IN — Mike (@MarketMike) January 31, 2025 US executives are selling stock at a record pace: The ratio …
CONFIRMATION: The owner of the Los Angeles Times is calling on the Senate to confirm @RobertKennedyJr. pic.twitter.com/WUbZcy4JsP — @amuse (@amuse) January 29, 2025 I had not met Bobby Kennedy until a few months ago. The more I got to know him I truly believe he has the American public’s best interests at heart. I have …
Did he shoot himself?Or did somebody do it for him?🤔 — Lance Loads! (@Lancealotin) January 2, 2025 🚨 NEW: The Trump Cybertruck Bomber Matt Livelsberger was trying to recruit fighters for Ukraine, per his social media posts WOW. This comes after a photo of him surfaced wearing a “Glory to Ukraine” It’s also worth noting …
Wow $TGT got absolutely murdered today. 💀 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) November 20, 2024 Target just reported quarterly EPS of $1.85, 19.5% below expectations of $2.30, on revenue of $25.7 billion, also below expectations. Not only did this market the biggest EPS miss in 2 years, it also marked the first revenue miss since August …
The lack of confirmation for new record highs for the S&P 500 is still a major divergence that should not be ignored. Historically, this has preceded corrective volatility in markets seen in 2007, 2018, 2020, and 2022. h/t IAmNotAnEconomist
Crooks fired eight times Investigators believe that Crooks fired eight rounds before he was killed by counter-snipers, Paris said. “I believe that the number is eight,” Paris told the committee. “Eight casings have been recovered.” Officials had previously only confirmed that the shooter fired multiple times at the rally earlier this month. Paris also told …
TL:DR: The Federal Reserve bought Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) after the 2008 financial crisis. JPMorgan Chase was chosen to hold these MBS securities. JPMorgan Chase has been charged with multiple criminal activities related to MBS. Despite these charges, the New York Fed has not switched custodians. The New York Fed has become less forthcoming about their …
by Chris Black The interview has not been confirmed, but it seems there is not another reason he would be in Russia. Tucker Carlson has been in Moscow for the past three days, according to Russia's Mash outlet. He was spotted at the Bolshoi Theatre today. pic.twitter.com/3NvkYAR8tl — Marc Bennetts (@marcbennetts1) February 3, 2024 The …
Archaeologists and theologians are working together to analyze recent discoveries and explain what happened to the ancient city of Sodom found in the Bible’s Old Testament book of Genesis. Dr. John Bergsma, a professor of theology at Steubenville, Ohio’s Franciscan University, thinks the evidence uncovered at Tall el-Hammam located in the southern Jordan Valley may …
Trump cleared by the Epstein List dump: pic.twitter.com/6Qwoi6boHn — @amuse (@amuse) January 4, 2024 Donald Trump was completely cleared by a victim during her witness testimony. https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/01/confirmed-epstein-documents-confirm-donald-trump-never-went/ TRUMP: never on Epstein Island or in Epstein’s homes. FBI raid. 91 charges CLINTON: “liked his girls young” and visited Epstein Island many times. No FBI raid. 0 …
by Chris Black I am not surprised. At all. Are you? Israeli soldiers "undoubtedly" shot Israeli civilians, survivor of kibbutz raid says in explosive interview Israeli forces "eliminated everyone, including the hostages,” said Yasmin Porat, who had fled the nearby Nova rave By @davidsheen & @AliAbunimah https://t.co/ruQX4tMVyr pic.twitter.com/dm3hiWQct5 — Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) October 16, 2023 …
A new poll could spell big trouble for New York: Nearly four of every 10 voters here are thinking of fleeing. Their No. 1 reason: high taxes. The survey, released this month by Zogby, found that 38.9% of voters are “considering” or already have “made plans” to head out, up five points from a month earlier. If …
As many as 850 people are still missing and 114 are dead following apocalyptic wildfires in Maui, as president Joe Biden is scheduled to arrive in devastated Hawaii after locals slammed him for taking too long to visit. Maui County Mayor Richard Bissen gave the update on a video posted to Facebook, saying the FBI, …
by Chris Black It’s really obvious that Putin is a gamer. How else would he know so much about stratagems? RT: The Kremlin has said that it has no information if Russian President Vladimir Putin plays any video games. “I am unaware that the president had played video games. I have never seen it and …
