Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Almost nobody looks at this chart… but it’s one of my favorite ways to spot when a move may be running on fumes. This is a simple 60‑minute line chart of high yield vs SPY. I use it to track divergences between “smart money” (bonds) and “dumb money” (equities). The last major signal was at …
Bonds do not move with stock prices like shares do. If the stock market crashes, Trump’s bond holdings (especially the many municipal bonds and U.S. Treasuries) should stay much steadier. The issuers — cities, states, school districts, or the U.S. government — still have to pay the same fixed interest on schedule and repay the …
Foreign central banks sell Treasuries Foreign central banks have slashed their holdings of Treasuries at the New York Federal Reserve to the lowest level since 2012, as countries sell the US government bonds to prop up their economies and currencies in the wake of the Iran war. The value of Treasuries held in custody at …
TraderHC @traderhc We’re cooking. Bonds just sold off on a clean inflation print. Read that again. CPI came in benign. The 10Y still rose to 4.18%. When good news can’t push yields down, the problem isn’t inflation. It’s term premium. The market wants more compensation to hold long-duration government debt. $TLT breaking below its lower …
Source: Investing(.)com pic.twitter.com/9CC2b0AUXd — Wimar.X (@DefiWimar) March 4, 2026
US asset demand shows no sign of abating. Demand for bonds rises and bond yields decline.https://t.co/MKLFCKQfrf pic.twitter.com/Y7YdQtGapA — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) February 14, 2026 NY Fed's Q4 GDP forecast now at 2.71% – getting closer to ATL Fed's 3.68% pic.twitter.com/zUGsltCT9n — E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) February 14, 2026 Average American's weekly paycheck buys ~2% more …
Germany doesn’t want to underwrite France’s chronic overspending. 🚨🚨🚨German Chancellor Merz has rejected French President Macron’s request for the European Union to issue bonds to pay for stuff France cannot afford. Germany doesn’t want to pay for free stuff for the French govt which is deeply in debt. Debt to GDP: Germany 65%France… pic.twitter.com/vcwO2elgnx — …
This is a serious problem for the Mag 7. Share buybacks always put a floor on how low these stocks could drop. It gave their shares a steady bid every quarter How do their stocks stay valued at $4 trillion without the buybacks? Microsoft is already rolling over💀 https://t.co/dzFek20ChN — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) February 10, …
Seriously, it’s ugly, and we’re the ones paying. This is not good… It’s very very bad pic.twitter.com/coBViTkxQL — Dr Danish (@operationdanish) February 9, 2026 Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has said that President Trump’s policies could spark “capital wars,” with countries and investors pulling back from U.S. assets, per BI — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) February 9, 2026 …
US TREASURY LAYS OUT $125B REFUNDING PLAN The US Treasury will sell $58 billion in 3-year notes, $42 billion in 10-year notes, and $25 billion in 30-year bonds next week as part of a $125 billion refunding through April 2026, raising $34.8 billion in new cash. Auction sizes for… — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 4, …
Oracle's free cash flows isn't expected to go positive again until 2030 https://t.co/WCAPamfTiz pic.twitter.com/H9X5qJw8H7 — Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) February 2, 2026 A Panicking Oracle Plans To Raise Up To $50 Billion, As Its Stock And Bonds Crater https://t.co/UBt8H4OO8W — zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 2, 2026 Just over a month ago, on Dec 17, alongside the news …
Here is the source of the vibecesson We have outright deflation in rent, gas, eggs and milk vs last year but blue collar workers are expecting the squeeze to continue… inflation expectations are near 7%! They aren’t thinking about 12m changes and saying problem solved. They… pic.twitter.com/i38oCwNB6P — The Long View (@HayekAndKeynes) January 28, 2026 …
Three so called six sigma moves in a week just means the system is levered to hell and the math everyone worships is garbage when panic hits. THE IMPOSSIBLE JUST HAPPENED The probability of what is happening is near zero. Three 6-sigma events occurred in one week. – Bonds – Silver – Gold We are …
Danish pension fund to sell $100 million in Treasurys, citing ‘poor’ U.S. government finances Danish pension operator AkademikerPension said it is exiting U.S. Treasurys because of finance concerns as Denmark spars with President Donald Trump over his threats to take over Greenland. Anders Schelde, AkademikerPension’s investing chief, said the decision was driven by what it …
🚨 BREAKING: THIS IS HOW 2006 HAPPENS AGAIN Trump orders $200,000,000,000 in mortgage bond buys to lower mortgage rates. If they really start doing it to "lower mortgage rates" That is not fixing housing. That is pumping the bubble. Because the US housing problem is not… https://t.co/Pk1Q2sYtyj pic.twitter.com/MqN9hGAX3Y — Wimar.X (@DefiWimar) January 8, 2026 Trump …
$TLT target is $101 before March. on the macro side: without healthcare and education, private job for Dec. is negative. and The reason Fed’s Miran Says More Than Full Point of Cuts Needed in 2026 is huge slump at the job market has already began. on the TA side: 20dma support,… pic.twitter.com/oUWTzZWaj7 — SwingTrader (@SwingTraderQ) …
It smells like the start of something bigger in 2026. Small caps and banks are getting crushed today. Tech stocks used to be risk plays but since 2021 they are treated as "safe havens" from slowing economic growth. Even energy stocks are down. https://t.co/OhtzN2vUvE pic.twitter.com/KvUXSciETV — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) January 7, 2026 The big crash is …
Wall Street Investors Who Stuck With Venezuela Are Poised for a Payday Many holding distressed Venezuelan assets hope that Maduro’s ouster signals a windfall after a long time out in the cold The ouster of Nicolás Maduro is rewarding investors who spent years betting on a Venezuela comeback. Investment firms including Fidelity and T. Rowe …
Thirteen countries, all but two of them in Africa, are now on the list, which makes the process of obtaining a U.S. visa unaffordable for many. The State Department last week quietly added Bhutan, Botswana, the Central African Republic, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Namibia and Turkmenistan to the list. Those designations took effect on Jan. 1, according …
I tried to warn you all! Remember when I said the weekly RSI pattern looked like the 2020 black swan and NOT like the other bear market bottoms? The weekly RSI is now at 43, and the pattern is confirming exactly that. During all four drawn-out bear market bottoms, we never briefly dipped below 40 …
People keep calling bonds “safe,” but that’s a straight-up lie. Long bonds in 2021 looked boring and secure, but inflation turned them into a nightmare. “Bonds are a safe-haven asset” is one of the biggest lies in financial markets. Bond performance is heavily dependent on the inflationary environment. – Disinflation -> bonds up– Inflation -> …
• U.S. stock markets will close at 1:00 p.m on Wednesday. The bond markets will close at 2:00 p.m. • The U.S. markets and most global markets will be closed Thursday for observance of the Christmas holiday. • Some global markets will be closed Friday as the Boxing Day… pic.twitter.com/GeGHwBCyER — Jesse Cohen (@JesseCohenInv) December …
Bond markets do not scream unless something is wrong. Japan cracking at a 26 year high while France and Germany follow is not a coincidence. This is the cost of pretending debt did not matter for a decade. Once the bond vigilantes wake up, they do not go back to sleep easily. https://twitter.com/GordianKnotFinX/status/2002947193347658025 Gold hits …
Jeff Gundlach on 2026 Positioning TLDR: > Long the belly (2-10 year maturities) > Long commodities > Long $GLD > Long high-quality fixed income > Long EM fixed income > Long non-US equities < Short USD $DXY < Short long-duration $TLT < Short private credit < Short high yield https://twitter.com/zoomyzoomm/status/1999682682641613283 https://twitter.com/zoomyzoomm/status/1999683233710272667
“This is 2007, 2008 magnified multiple times over,” warns Mitch Vexler, a commercial real estate developer who has gone forensic on America’s crumbling financial foundations. In today’s interview, Vexler dismantles the narrative of stability. He details a $23 trillion property overvaluation scheme, a $2 trillion commercial real estate cliff, and trillions in impaired bank loans—all …
10-year bonds are currently rising worldwide, something is going on? byu/Dramatic_Economics61 inWallstreetsilver The Bond Market is expecting more QE and inflation. Consequently, Bond Investors want a higher yield to compensate for a failing currency. Add the fact Major Money Managers are now recommending selling as much as half your Bond holdings and buy gold. …
Google Searches for Dollar "Debasement" soared this quarter to the highest level in history 🚨🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/qJJFqd5b5h — Barchart (@Barchart) December 6, 2025 Gold has replaced bonds as a hedge against equities. The negative correlation between bonds and equities has broken, they now move together. If you're looking to hedge both equity and geopolitical risk, gold …
Trump buying quite a bit of long duration muni bonds. (Alongside 2026 maturities) Take it for what it is worth. https://t.co/uxQqkbOa2v — Mr. VIX (@yieldsearcher) November 22, 2025 U.S. President Donald Trump bought at least $82 million in corporate and municipal bonds from late August to early October including new investments in sectors benefiting from …
Junk bonds are high-risk corporate debts offering higher returns to investors. The chart shows their yields (interest rates) had been falling for 4 months—a positive sign of lower perceived risk—but recently spiked to 6.84%, breaking that downtrend. Implications: Rising yields… — Grok (@grok) October 15, 2025 Junk bonds are high-risk corporate debts offering higher returns …
