Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
US stocks are too expensive. International stocks have outperformed by a wide margin this year Treasury Bonds now have a higher yield than U.S. Stocks, a change from what we've seen over the last 20 years pic.twitter.com/GU2fcssmN4 — Barchart (@Barchart) October 1, 2025 RIP Morgan Stanley 🫡😂 https://t.co/PGL4x4pvEr — Barchart (@Barchart) October 1, 2025 Here …
Sadly, most people don’t understand money, specifically fiat currency. Things become more expensive because the currency purchasing them becomes less valuable. It will be a colossal mistake if the Fed cuts rates.Bonds will erode to oblivion. pic.twitter.com/Hdwdm4TUTj — The Great Martis (@great_martis) September 15, 2025 Things are BAD.1. GDP is "up" on stubborn inflation, which …
AAA bonds rated just two months ago are crashing, with lower tranches nearly worthless. Subprime auto debt tied to fraud is imploding while rating agencies keep pretending nothing is wrong. First blood….. https://t.co/LEFhuiY4JY — Bogachan Ozdemir (@Bogachan_1971) September 11, 2025 🚨Tricolor’s AAA bonds (rated 2 months ago July ’25) just plunged—par to 78¢, lower tranches …
SP 500 returned 3% total from 2020-2025 when measured in gold. When measuring in dollars it returned 80%. Measuring in dollars is like measuring in Monopoly money Irony is gold is not a recession hedge (long bonds are). It is a system hedge. — Mr. VIX (@yieldsearcher) September 8, 2025 Silver is ripping and the …
Donald Trump didn’t just buy bonds in 2025. He soaked entire sectors: gas districts, school boards, hospital authorities, municipal utilities, in positions that turn federal policy into profit. Every rate shift, every regulatory adjustment now feeds directly into his wealth. Policy and portfolio are fused. CNBC reports nearly 700 transactions, including bonds from Meta, T-Mobile, …
Gold is making new highs, measured, in this case, against the US dollar, which is making headlines. The chart below, however, is far more interesting. The asset management industry runs on two asset classes only: stocks and bonds. Sure, asset managers talk a lot about other asset classes or invest in ‘other’ asset classes that …
There seems to be a lot of competition for liquidity out there from the purveyors of “risk-free” assets… — Nothing To See Here (@TylerHardt) August 26, 2025 With the BOJ stepping back, foreign capital may repatriate, U.S. and European rates rise, and emerging markets brace for currency and funding turmoil, leaving investors facing unprecedented uncertainty. …
Link to article:https://t.co/DaTG9QsIvo — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) August 20, 2025 It's official: The US has now seen 446 LARGE bankruptcy filings in 2025, officially +12% ABOVE pandemic levels in 2020. In July alone, the US saw 71 bankruptcies, marking the highest single-month total since July 2020. What's happening? Let us explain. (a thread) pic.twitter.com/xIAbg4v3Lu …
Trump has bought at least $103.7 million in bonds while in office, including debt from Meta, Qualcomm, Home Depot, and T-Mobile, according to a White House disclosure dated August 12, 2025: “Trump reported no sales.” https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/trump-embarks-on-104-million-bond-buying-spree-while-in-office/ar-AA1KPNzK 👀 pic.twitter.com/lQtyLDsbQ3 — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) August 20, 2025 Unlike every modern president before him, Trump didn’t divest …
If you were sitting in Powell’s chair right now, the choices are all bad. Rate cuts with inflation heating back up would be reckless, but blindly hiking or extending QT into a slowing economy risks detonating credit markets. The Fed is boxed in because both sides of the balance sheet are broken: short-term liquidity is …
Indirects faded. 59.5% taken. Six-month average sits at 61.9%. Dealers got hit with 17.5%. Normal is 13.9%. “Indirect bidders… took 59.5% of the issue, below their six-month average of 61.9%… dealers absorbed a heavier-than-average 17.5%.” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-treasury-sells-25b-30y-175706796.html 🚨 The U.S. just auctioned off $25 billion in 30-year bonds. And the results were bad. Really bad. Weak …
UAE is rolling out a new influencer crackdown. Anyone promoting anything online—paid or not—must now hold an official advertiser permit. Influencers visiting the country need a “visitor advertiser permit” via an approved agency. It’s free for the first three years but mandatory in three months. Violators face stiff penalties, including fines up to Dh1 million …
President Trump said he will announce a new Federal Reserve governor and a new Bureau of Labor Statistics chief this week. “The president said he will announce a new Federal Reserve governor and a new jobs data statistician in the coming days.” https://www.axios.com/2025/08/04/trump-fed-governor-bls-labor-statistics-chief He removed BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer after a weak July jobs report …
The Fed’s choice to hold rates high is often misunderstood. It removes dollars from circulation, balancing the impact of tariffs and fewer global trades. Liquidity dries up, which means stocks lose their usual momentum. Investors turn to bonds instead, pushing yields lower without direct Fed intervention. “The Fed is cautious because inflation remains a threat …
In 2008, Foreigners owned 57% of U.S. Treasuries 🚨Today, they only own 32% 👀 pic.twitter.com/xgviRLrCvm — Barchart (@Barchart) July 21, 2025
The 30-year Treasury yield just pierced the 5% ceiling again. That line has held for two decades. Every time it’s tested, the bond market snaps back. April 6 was the last time it happened. Stocks dipped. Bonds rallied. Today looks like a rerun. The yield hit 5.01% before retreating to 4.91% by close. That’s the …
Stocks hit record highs fueled by relentless buying. The Buffett Indicator is a simple way to measure if the stock market is overvalued. It compares the total value of all U.S. stocks to the size of the U.S. economy. Formula: Stock Market Value ÷ GDP If that number gets too high, it’s a sign that …
BRK-B beat the SPY by over 60% over 5 years – treasuries are dry powder waiting to be deployed not a long-term strategy. — Inkling (@inside_finance) July 14, 2025 Warren Buffett now owns an astonishing 5.1% of the entire U.S. Treasury Bill Market 🚨🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/yzgdHBW0aP — Barchart (@Barchart) July 14, 2025 Bitcoin demand has shifted …
This is the largest debt ceiling increase in U.S. history. So much for “fiscal responsibility.” https://t.co/V6z78X9ubQ — Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) June 28, 2025 Trump’s “big beautiful bill” is very unpopular pic.twitter.com/wsOkzWanjZ — Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) June 28, 2025 Taiwan Investors are selling U.S. Bonds at the fastest pace since the onset of Covid …
Wall Street’s getting that look again. Not loud. Not panicked. Just quietly nervous. This week, the market sent out one of those soft warning signs that most people scroll past without noticing. The 3-month skew on S&P 500 options just spiked to a level we have not seen since early August last year. To most, …
by notayesmanseconomics Today we see that a topic we look at from time to time and try to figure out is back in the high life again as Steve Winwood would say. Via Barchart on Twitter (X). As you can see not only has there been quite a move recently the changes since the Bretton …
Japan’s debt crisis is growing. The Bank of Japan now holds 52% of its government bonds, a massive stake that has reshaped the financial system. This isn’t just policy—it’s a structural shift that has squeezed private investors out of the market, creating risks for long-term stability. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato is now pushing for greater …
Shorting bonds is the next trade to blow up. https://t.co/DpgDMfmY4N — Fibonacci Investing⚡️ (@FibonacciInves1) June 4, 2025 Record institutional short in ultra long bonds (via futs) pic.twitter.com/Bt3m3qlpjm — zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 2, 2025 The Beige Book just put the stamp of approval on the recession call. In the past six weeks, the economy has shifted …
by David Haggith Big Bountiful Bill is going to bust through the bond market. Jamie Dimon warns in today’s headlines that the American bond market is going to certainly see some breakage. He’s not sure when but he says the bloated US debt coupled with the irresponsible disability of congress to even face up to …
First, what happened? The BOJ (Bank of Japan) holds a mountain of Japanese government bonds (JGBs). For years, it’s been buying them aggressively as part of its monetary easing program, a fancy way of saying it’s pumped money into the economy by purchasing bonds and keeping… — StockMarket.News (@_Investinq) June 2, 2025 BUT there’s a …
DXY has given back all of its gains following China trade news. pic.twitter.com/W9c8dZTGs9 — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) May 14, 2025 BREAKING NEWS THAILAND'S RICHEST MAN IS WARNING THAT THE UNITED STATES RISKS LOSING ITS GLOBAL LEADERSHIP POSITION IF COUNTRIES PULL BACK FROM INVESTING IN US TREASURIES Many powerful people now see it… — Gold …
The Federal Reserve’s signal of fewer rate cuts in 2025 has reshaped investor expectations, prompting a reassessment of inflation risks and tightening financial conditions globally. As borrowing costs rise, central banks in other economies are adjusting policies to maintain stability. Simultaneously, the sharp increase in U.S. Treasury yields is influencing global fixed-income markets, as investors …
Issuing debt that the Fed then buys with created out of thin air funny money is so Zimbabwe 2.0. The fed is already sitting on over $1.5 trillion in bonds. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TREAS10Y The train is out of control… The first 7 months of FY 2025 produced a deficit of $1.1 Trillion. That’s $196 Billion more than …
🚨BREAKING: FED “NOT QE 💵🖨️ The Fed bought $14.8 billion worth of 10 year bonds today. This is on top of the $20 Billion it bought yesterday. That’s $34.8 Billion in 2 days. “NOT QE” https://t.co/in9KDHZ4ld pic.twitter.com/lTDQ5PZjGY — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) May 6, 2025 #QE is backMoney printer is back on.Powell wants to keep …
