Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
A NEW CREDIT BLOWUP IN LONDON HAS WALL STREET CHASING BILLIONS – BBG — First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) February 27, 2026 BREAKING 🚨 RUMOR JEFFERIES AND WELLS FARGO TO COLLAPSE. OUR SOURCES ARE WATCHING THE MATTER CLOSELY STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES https://t.co/uyw14OpzRc — ThePPShow (@ThePPseedsShow) February 26, 2026 MFS, a UK mortgage lender, entered administration today …
Another day, several more critical development in the credit markets. Loss projections are soaring. A second fund stepped forward acknowledging asset sales (at lower prices). Big (related) shift in rates markets that ties in the Fed, yield curve, and everything else. Here we go over all three; what happened, what it all means.
$UBS predicts private credit default rates to reach up to 15% in bear case (FT)https://t.co/r7MBvNICG5 — Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) (@SpecialSitsNews) February 25, 2026 UBS warns of 15% default rates in private credit — Wall Street is starting to worry. (Bloomberg) — A few weeks ago, analysts at UBS Group AG laid out …
We haven't even had a crisis and credit card loans are already 12.7% serious delinquency. What does this mean? https://t.co/4erneMeCcY — Jon Brooks (@jonbrooks) February 24, 2026 The CEO of McDonald's says that we're now living in "a two-tier economy." " If you're upper income earning over $100,000 things are good, stock markets are near all …
Bull Theory @BullTheoryio 🚨THE $2 TRILLION PRIVATE CREDIT MARKET COULD BE FACING ITS FIRST MAJOR BANKRUPTCY. Blue Owl manages about $273 billion in assets. It is one of the biggest lenders behind the AI data center buildout. When companies like Meta, CoreWeave, or Crusoe need billions to build large data center campuses, they often go …
Crypto Rover @cryptorover 🚨BIG WARNING: THE FIRST MAJOR DOMINO HAS FALLEN. Today, Blue Owl Capital announced that it permanently halted redemptions for Blue Owl Capital Corp II (OBDC II), its $1.7 billion private credit fund aimed at retail investors. And this is not a small thing. Blue Owl Capital is a major alternative asset manager …
👇📌TLDR: For those short on time: * Life insurers hold more junk debt than 2007 subprime bonds * Private credit defaults hit 5.8% as fund values drop * Treasury basis trade leverage reached $1.4 trillion * Hedge fund leverage sits at the highest level ever recorded *… — Sagzee (@IAmSagzee) February 13, 2026 WARNING: SOMETHING …
“The Fed published a research note in March 2025 that almost nobody read. It found that life insurers’ exposure to below-investment-grade debt now exceeds the industry’s exposure to subprime mortgage-backed securities in late 2007. Let that land. The same financial system that nearly collapsed from subprime has quietly built a larger position in an asset …
9 large companies filed for bankruptcy in the US last week. This brings the 3-week average to 6, the highest rate since the 2020 pandemic byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts Mega bankruptcies becoming more common among large firms There’s an ongoing surge in mega bankruptcies (large companies with significant assets) across the U.S., driven by rising interest rates, …
Q4 2025 student loans transitioning to 90+ days delinquent surged to +14%, a level never seen before in history. pic.twitter.com/OIBZin9gx1 — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) February 10, 2026 CREDIT CARD STRESS IS SURGING: 12.7% OF CREDIT CARD LOANS ARE NOW 90+ DAYS DELINQUENT, THE SECOND-HIGHEST LEVEL EVER, SURPASSED ONLY DURING THE AFTERMATH OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS …
Google is selling 100 year debt byu/donopumpi inwallstreetbets BREAKING: Google $GOOG to issue a rare 100-year bond as part of a $20 billion multi-currency debt sale, aimed at funding AI infrastructure. This marks the first such long-term tech issuance since the 2000 dot-com era. What stage? — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) February 9, 2026 Big Tech is …
They thought they were reassuring debt markets over AI cash. Instead, the company kicked a hornet’s nest, unleashing a MAJOR selloff that is sweeping through private credit. It isn’t just the BDCs (publicly traded funds) this time, either. The asset managers themselves are now getting swept up in the money outflows. Looks like they figured …
“Private credit exposure to AI disruption high, not priced in – UBS” No kidding. “…We estimate that 25–35% of private credit portfolios face elevated AI disruption risk. Using BDC portfolios as a proxy (AUM of ~$450 billion, $350 billion of which is public), exposure to high disruption risk subsectors is most acute in technology (~24% …
Private credit firms sold a record amount of debt to themselves last year as the buyout sector’s slowdown pushed them to find new ways to generate cash from loans to companies owned by private equity. Private lenders struck so-called continuation deals worth $15bn globally in 2025, up from almost $4bn the previous year, according to …
Kirkland & Ellis has withdrawn from representing Optimum after the company used a separate law firm to launch a lawsuit against creditors. The antitrust complaint alleged that investors, including Apollo, Ares, and Oaktree, conspired via cooperation agreement to raise debt prices and make it more expensive to refinance. These types of creditor protections have made …
ABF was supposed to be the safe part of private credit. Downside protected. Self-liquidating. Diversified. Turns out "collateral-backed" only works if the collateral is worth something. So much for the safe stuff. pic.twitter.com/oWQvoIHXIZ — junkbondinvestor (@junkbondinvest) January 26, 2026 April is about perfect for a crisis to have max midterm impact. Ed, do you notice …
by Martin Armstrong Private credit or direct lending soared in popularity after the 2008 recession when regulators cracked down on banks, but now, companies backed by direct loans are beginning to fail. Fears surrounding private lenders and their legitimacy are coming to a head. Private credit is lending outside the traditional banking system. It exploded …
If BlackRock is taking hits now, who is next in private credit? Friday evening news drop Troubled Loans Hammer BlackRock’s Private Credit Fund “A BlackRock Inc. private debt fund expects to mark down the net value of its assets 19% after a string of troubled loans weighed on results, marking the latest sign of pressure …
Private credit has surged in popularity since post-financial crisis regulations discouraged banks from serving riskier borrowers. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned after a pair of private credit-backed companies declared bankruptcy that problems in credit are rarely isolated. Companies that are most linked to the asset class, such as Blue Owl Capital, as well as …
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon called President Donald Trump’s proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates an “economic disaster.” He suggested the U.S. government should test the cap in two states: Vermont and Massachusetts. Vermont and Massachusetts are the home states of Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, both of whom have advocated for …
🚨🚨BREAKING🚨🚨 Credit card companies have completley ignored and disregarded Trump’s suggestion to lower interest rates. No one respects him! pic.twitter.com/IiGLsXMvKY — The Green Dragon Tavern (@greendragonhq) January 20, 2026 That’s a good thing. Many people are unable to consume and are poor because they can’t manage their budget properly, so a 10% interest rate cap …
“Every time the Unemployment Rate crosses its 36-month moving average from BELOW, a recession sets in.” https://t.co/3rknCG3YUH — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) January 18, 2026 “Private credit investors pull $7bn from Wall Street’s biggest funds” Fewer eyes on this story if it drops on the Saturday of a long holiday weekend??? “Private credit investors pulled …
What Ultra Tight Credit Spreads Are Really Telling You Corporate bond spreads are sitting near their tightest levels since 2007, which on the surface reads as confidence..low defaults, steady growth, plenty of liquidity. Credit markets are basically saying, “We’re comfortable here.” But that comfort is exactly what should make you pause. Credit spreads are the …
JP Morgan missed on its earnings after failing to sell as many bonds as it was expecting for its customers. At the same time, Jamie Dimon, the bank’s CEO, he of cockroach fame, was forced to acknowledge how the labor market had softened before then going on to describe Goldilocks anyway. This is something that …
Former Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot is being sued by JPMorgan Chase over an unpaid MileagePlus United credit card balance of $11,078.01 pic.twitter.com/AvcKEtO38q — Frank Calabrese (@FrankCalabrese) January 13, 2026 Former Chicago mayor Lori Lightfoot was sued at the end of last year after allegedly failing to pay more than $11,000 in credit card bills, records …
It's plausible deniability through pretend stupidity. There's no way someone that smart about money didn't know that the covid bank bailout was going to cause rampant inflation. pic.twitter.com/ObOqknbTns — Ilgephelfis 🐸🤡👽🎻🎶 (@ilgephelfis) January 12, 2026 That Powell is forced to defend himself and the Fed from Trumpian intervention in this way is why foreign institutions …
He’s right, a hard cap just pushes risk into darker corners. When banks pull credit, the people left paying are the ones with no lawyers and no exits. Bill Ackman @BillAckman I think President @realDonaldTrump ’s goal of reducing credit card interest rates is a worthy and important one. My concern about capping rates at …
Once CPI prints on Thursday and it is in line or cooler than expected Then there is very little in the way of the market running for the next few weeks at the very least. All important catalysts will be out of the way. The market has, by all accounts, handled the storm very well …
NY Fed: The share of households who think their financial situation will be better in a year matched a new 2-year low in Nov. Fewer than 26.5% of households expect their situation to improve. We were at this level in May 2025 after 'Liberation Day.'https://t.co/TKTzxEEcRK pic.twitter.com/UahZNaUPJL — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) December 8, 2025 Mortgage delinquency …
