Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
I keep seeing people focus on one chart. The problem is there are now several of them pointing in the same direction. US margin debt just hit $1.4 trillion, equal to 6.2 percent of M2 money supply, almost matching the 6.3 percent peak reached during the Dot Com bubble. Semiconductor stocks relative to M2 are …
⚠️Liquidity conditions are DETERIORATING rapidly: The Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator has rolled over sharply and turned negative for the first time since 2021. This metric measures real money growth relative to economic growth, and historically has led the US stock market… pic.twitter.com/N5Ua16Fwi4 — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) June 19, 2026 Add in the recent Fed …
Empire State index dropping to 5.7. Growth momentum stalling. Factory orders cooling. Industrial supply chain problems getting bigger. Weekly work hours shrinking. Companies cutting production. Corporate profits hitting records. Average worker money buying less. Yield curve steepening dangerously. Recession conditions building. Hiring plans vanishing. Labor market hitting dead end. Official data hiding reality. Disconnect reaching …
Japan 30 year smashes all time record as BOJ faces hike pressure and yen carry trade starts cracking… UK gilts blast to 1998 highs while oil over 100 dollars piles on the deficit fueled agony… Every major debt market breaking at once screams recession setup straight out of the history books… Carry trade clowns about …
by Michael You have probably noticed that gasoline is starting to become extremely expensive. That is really bad news for all of us, because our entire way of life depends on cheap energy. We can’t make stuff without energy. We can’t move stuff without energy. That is why the cost of energy directly affects the cost …
via Claudio Grass The recent “calm” in the gold market has left many observers, and especially the precious metal’s critics, questioning whether the “safe-haven” thesis still stands or whether its time has passed. In the shadow of the ongoing Middle East conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the yellow metal failed to deliver the immediate, parabolic spike that many …
U.S. gasoline hits $4 per gallon, highest since 2022, as Iran war drives up fuel prices U.S. gasoline prices have surged above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years, as the oil supply shock triggered by the Middle East war rapidly drives up costs for families. Prices at the pump …
The 2008 parallels aren’t subtle anymore. Let me lay them out: ✓ Credit bubble reversing ✓ Shadow banks gating investor redemptions ✓ Forced asset sales to raise cash ✓ Collateral getting marked down (JP Morgan just did this) ✓ Oil shock driving prices toward $100 ✓ Central bankers focused on inflation, the wrong risk ✓ …
via Phoenix Capital Research As I mentioned yesterday, the War in Iran has the potential to ignite another inflationary storm in the U.S. We’ve already assessed the threat this conflict presents to energy prices. Today, I want to dive into the fact that the U.S. was already on the cusp of a second round of …
“THIS IS NOT LOOKING GOOD Look at these yields… – Germany 10Y is exploding – France 10Y keeps going up – Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece all rising together THIS ISN’T HAPPENING BY ACCIDENT. This is europe repricing sovereign risk again. Here’s exactly why it matters: Germany is still holding things together, but the rest of …
by Michael 2025 has been a smashing year for those that invested in precious metals. The price of copper is up about 30 percent since the start of the year, and the price of silver has risen 128 percent during that same time period. I have been saying “we have never seen anything like this before” a …
Buffett is 30%+ cash Druckenmiller is hiding in healthcare PTJ has puts on everything Tepper is hiding in China Dalio is hiding in gold They’re telling you something alright… https://t.co/2TYtzzpX9F — Zoomer 🧢 (@zoomyzoomm) December 15, 2025 the topping process looks almost identical to the Nov 2024-Feb 2025 one. bears just need to be patient. …
Google's forward PE looks like a meme stock. Nearly doubled off the low. 👇 pic.twitter.com/USQ1q0pyru — Matt Cerminaro (@mattcerminaro) November 26, 2025 Google is up 86% in last 6 months and Cathie Wood added 174k shares. Weekly RSI at 4 year highs. She is buying at all time highs with technicals overheated. $GOOGL pic.twitter.com/yJ8fAX3aBg — …
Mortgage rates jump 20 basis points following Fed cut While the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate this week, mortgage rates responded by doing just the opposite. The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage has jumped 20 basis points since Chairman Jerome Powell announced the cut on Wednesday and held a news conference, …
This is a shocking chart. It’s foreign owned U.S. Treasuries held by the Federal Reserve. Every drop has been a liquidity crisis. When foreign governments or banks need Dollars the Treasuries exit. It’s now lower than the depths of the 2020 crash. Remember: the Fed has only one “tool” in its “tool chest”: Money Printer …
Most buyers since COVID couldn’t afford the house just like 2008. Especially with mortgage rates where they are. https://t.co/I9OLqLUANX — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) September 16, 2025 It would take a heart of stone to read about these F*cked Borrowers who can't sell their overpriced houses, & not laugh byu/Boo_Randy_II inHouseBuyers Markets don't seem to have …
Intuit…. Models are flashing a 90% chance of corporate bloodbath in October. Bring rain gear. More to come. — Amanda Goodall (@thejobchick) September 10, 2025 J.P. Morgan Warns S&P 500 Could Drop Nearly 8% — First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) September 10, 2025 The overnight repo market is supposed to be the smoothest corner of the plumbing: …
So we’re near GFC on 90 day delinquencies on almost everything. The credit card and student debt are the most concerning. The mortgage numbers are fake due to loan modifications. It’s fraud basically. If the mortgage delinquencies were real they’d be near GFC highs So we’re near GFC on 90 day delinquencies on almost everything. …
Mike Wilson sees setup repeating as sentiment peaks. The last time Extreme Greed was this extended was in March 2024.$SPX went up about 1% more before spending the next 15 or so trading days dropping 6%. Proved to be a massive buying opportunity. And this fits well with Mike Wilson’s narrative. De ja vu? pic.twitter.com/HoiTwY8TLe …
Here is a quick chart I mustered up today… The ‘1929 trendline’ it’s a seldom and scary situation! pic.twitter.com/RKKuuDqKEn — Beachside Bagholder (@dax_mccaskill) July 18, 2025 2008 vs. 2025 Overlaying gold prices for the same period is even scarier. The ingredients are present now; all that's needed is a catalyst. https://t.co/8r1GIWZ7ys pic.twitter.com/a38GnrtieH — The Great …
The 30-year Treasury yield just pierced the 5% ceiling again. That line has held for two decades. Every time it’s tested, the bond market snaps back. April 6 was the last time it happened. Stocks dipped. Bonds rallied. Today looks like a rerun. The yield hit 5.01% before retreating to 4.91% by close. That’s the …
The U.S. economy is showing signs of strain that official headlines aren’t capturing. Despite stock market gains, underlying indicators suggest a slowdown. Labor market indicators are weakening. Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 28, 2025, were 227,980, a slight decrease from the previous week. However, continuing claims increased to 1,974,000, up from 1,937,000 …
Echoes of 2008 stir on Wall Street… Just as in 2000 & 2007, when weekly unemployment claims start nearing 300K you can kiss the bull market goodbye. Mark it down. 💯 Chart from @profplum99. pic.twitter.com/bJffcNyvN5 — John (@market_sleuth) June 19, 2025 CRASH WARNING🛑 Dow Jones 2008 vs 2025 Likely or Unlikely? Study carefully; carefully study. …
The 20-year U.S. Treasury bond auction took place today, May 21, 2025, and the results were troubling. Investors showed weak demand, forcing yields higher and triggering a broad selloff in financial markets. The 20-year yield surged to 5.047%, up from 4.810% in the previous auction, signaling growing concerns about the government’s ability to finance its …
Big red warning signs are flashing in the Phoenix housing market. Inventory is now up 467% from its pandemic low three years ago. And just hit the highest level in a decade. There's a mass selloff occurring, as pandemic investors and snowbirds sell out. Prepare for… pic.twitter.com/d0c41Mxe87 — Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) April 29, 2025
That's it folks. The S&P 500 has just triggered a death cross for the first time following a CAPE ratio that exceeded two standard deviations above its long-term exponential trend. The other 3 times this happened: – Nov/1929– Oct/2000– Mar/2022 Place your bets. pic.twitter.com/hoUdiAcOIx — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) April 17, 2025 The market is following …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x415sUMvNjk The US economy has been struggling for some time, and the situation has worsened with the onset of a recession. The recession is here, and it’s not looking pretty. Despite the optimism and reassurances from various sources, the reality is that the recession is expected to have a severe impact. Today, we will examine …
In the predawn darkness, the Houba labour market in Guiyang is a sea of construction helmets as day workers seek temporary jobs in the south-western Chinese city. But many of these so-called migrant workers, labourers who have left their homes in mostly rural areas to find jobs in the city, will leave disappointed. China’s property …
Warning signals are flashing that could send the S&P 500 $SPX plunging 70% warns Hedge Fund Manager John Hussman pic.twitter.com/8BtpNUnxmH — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) June 25, 2024 Blowoff Top Summer Confirmed ✅ pic.twitter.com/pMpTVmZRpK — Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) June 24, 2024 Megacap growth and tech call buying volume is at its highest level on record. …
