This type of indicator has sometimes moved ahead of stock market moves by around 3 to 6 months. Now it is flashing a warning.

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Add in the recent Fed meeting.

The Fed sounded more hawkish, short-term rates stayed higher, and the yield curve pressure increased.

So the question becomes:

Is the market ignoring a liquidity problem?

Because right now there is an interesting contradiction.

Retail trading activity is still extremely strong.

Money is still flowing into popular trades.

But underneath that, some liquidity measures are starting to look weaker.

Of course, this does not mean stocks must fall.

Markets can ignore warning signs for a long time.

Earnings, economic data, and unexpected events can change everything.

But the part worth watching is this:

When everyone is focused on the excitement…

The first cracks usually appear somewhere else.

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