Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Prime Day spending crashes and factory jobs slashed while investors still bet on soft or no landing economy. Ngl this might be the biggest recession indicator of all-time. https://t.co/C2hlqUawrr — Just a Dude Who Invests (@DudeWhoInvests) June 24, 2026 Every corporation in America is running the same experiment right now. How much will we pay …
⚠️Liquidity conditions are DETERIORATING rapidly: The Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator has rolled over sharply and turned negative for the first time since 2021. This metric measures real money growth relative to economic growth, and historically has led the US stock market… pic.twitter.com/N5Ua16Fwi4 — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) June 19, 2026 Add in the recent Fed …
Dot com finale territory locked in. 60 percent of 2027 data centers still not started. Gordon Johnson calls out warehouses full of unused GPUs at fake high margins. This euphoria is pure illusion. Record chase right before the rug. Biggest dump of the year loading up right now. Retail about to eat it hard. Ladies …
U.S. gasoline hits $4 per gallon, highest since 2022, as Iran war drives up fuel prices U.S. gasoline prices have surged above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years, as the oil supply shock triggered by the Middle East war rapidly drives up costs for families. Prices at the pump …
🚨BofA’s Indicator is screaming 'SELL' stocks: The BofA Bull & Bear Index hit 9.3 points and is now at one of the highest readings on record. Historically, with the indicator this high, the median “max drawdown” over the following 3 months was -4.3% for the MSCI All-Country… pic.twitter.com/MYtcbBEJoo — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) February 22, …
$SPX Alt | One more push. Marginal new high to 7025 to complete the structure — then it's over.$NDX already confirmed its top. $SPX and $DJI are next. Invalidation: 6760 pic.twitter.com/ye7AfySPNj — TRIGGER TRADES (@TriggerTrades) February 8, 2026 Expect more volatility in Equities next week! Nasdaq could likely move down to Daily 200SMA. And the …
10Y moving higher in hot patch of economic data this morning pic.twitter.com/aaJ7AJh615 — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) February 2, 2026 US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.6% vs 48.5% expected. The US economy has entered the expansion phase. — Ted (@TedPillows) February 2, 2026 Do not confuse the increase in shipping rates as being bullish …
via WSB: Explanation: “The Hindenburg Omen is a combination of technical signals that together forecast the likelihood of a stock market crash. The technical inputs are the 10 Week Simple Moving Average, New 52 week highs on the NYSE, New 52 Week lows on the NYSE, and the McClellan Oscillator. If, on the same day, …
via Phoenix Capital Research The single best predictor of future inflation is SCREAMING that another inflationary storm is coming. The Fed focuses on two inflation measures: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). There are two MAJOR problems with this: Both measures of inflation have numerous gimmicks designed to UNDER-state the true …
” Be fearful when others are greedy, be greedy when others are fearful. ” The Buffett Indicator just hit 217%. That’s 69% above trend. Every time in history we’ve been this stretched… the crash came fast. pic.twitter.com/aKOddEybpr — Mr. Uppy (@MisterUppy) September 22, 2025 Throughout most of 1929, market was melting up. Millionaires were being …
Sales of Heavy Trucks are collapsing, which has *usually* foreshadowed an upcoming recession 🚨🤯👀 pic.twitter.com/6Yhm79I8H4 — Barchart (@Barchart) September 18, 2025 30-10YR Yield Spread Rising. Look at the chart…. and tell me what you think! pic.twitter.com/NmoDGkE272 — Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) September 19, 2025 US unemployment rate for ages 16-24 is 10.5%, per WaPo — unusual_whales …
BTC peaks before stocks. QQQ soon will follow. $BTC is trading near 2 month lows currently. Diverging from the $QQQ lately. Last time BTC was trading this low, Q’s were about 4% lower than current levels. 🤔 pic.twitter.com/ALwrZMOLm9 — Heisenberg (@Mr_Derivatives) September 1, 2025 XRP The rare, majestic broadening top has appeared. The abyss awaits. …
If consumer demand is frozen and margins are squeezed, are stocks about to fall? Data and full report here: https://t.co/pxYDtGgI1a pic.twitter.com/Lp3Bzo280Z — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) August 20, 2025 Corporate bankruptcies are heading for a record high this year higher than any other down turn in US history Report link: https://t.co/pxYDtGgI1a pic.twitter.com/z0oWH6yzhp — The Coastal …
New tenant rents are absolutely collapsing, leading indicator for overall rents and eventually the housing market pic.twitter.com/60iGWeGnvw — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) August 12, 2025 The claim is reliable based on Cleveland Fed and BLS data showing new tenant rents down ~9% YoY in Q2 2025, amid slowing national rent growth (-2.1% median YoY in June). …
Grocery prices now change 100 times a day. Walmart’s electronic shelf labels are live in 1,000+ stores, with 2,300 targeted by December. Kroger’s rollout is ahead of schedule. Labels update based on time, inventory, competitor pricing, and weather. USDA’s July 25 forecast shows food-at-home prices rose 0.2% MoM, up 2.4% YoY. Eggs dropped 10.8% in …
Stocks hit record highs fueled by relentless buying. The Buffett Indicator is a simple way to measure if the stock market is overvalued. It compares the total value of all U.S. stocks to the size of the U.S. economy. Formula: Stock Market Value ÷ GDP If that number gets too high, it’s a sign that …
A truly remarkable, even astounding, phenomenon is unfolding within the American financial landscape. The United States stock market has achieved a scale never before witnessed in history, defying conventional wisdom and historical benchmarks. We are currently observing a scenario where market valuations ascend to staggering heights, pushing beyond what many once considered possible. This situation …
TLDR: The dot-com era saw explosive stock gains from 1995 to 1999, with almost everything going up Examples like CYBR and JDSU skyrocketed despite weak fundamentals The crash began on March 24, 2000, and $QQQ didn’t recover its ATH until 2014 The user kept buying the dip and dollar-cost averaging, which led to major losses …
Inflation stays hot despite economic slump. So, we got negative consumer spending and negative consumer income, yet hot core PCE (i.e., inflation). Yet, still, stocks are making new all-time-highs on "trade deal" comments? I guess the data, indeed, does not matter. But, at some point, bluster from the @WhiteHouse will not… pic.twitter.com/ePtMrsZadH — Gordon Johnson …
The market cannot survive without Big Tech: The S&P 500 has added a massive ~$7.5 trillion in market cap since the April 7th low. Meanwhile, the Magnificent 7 has accounted for ~54% of this increase, gaining $4 trillion in value. This means the Magnificent 7 has contributed… pic.twitter.com/UqkB6N9lnu — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 4, …
Why is law school a recession indicator?? — frost paladin (@jots0x) April 23, 2025 It takes you out of the game for 3 years while you're getting your degree. In theory, you return more qualified. Means they can't find a job with their current qualifications and they already have a BA. — Sorry T. Offend …
Are we on the verge of another epic stock market crash — or worse, a “lost decade” where equities go nowhere?Join us as we dive into the “Blood Indicator,” a historic signal that has often preceded major market downturns. In this discussion with Alan Hibbard and Mike Maloney, you’ll discover: Why excessive household investment in …
All too often, when we talk economics and finance, we neglect the human side of the equation. GDP is about more than percentages – it’s about prosperity and confidence. Unemployment isn’t just a number, it’s real people who’ve lost their primary source of income. With that firmly in mind, today, we explore the saddest recession …
Heavy truck sales – a leading indicator of past times – weakest since August 2021 pic.twitter.com/1E4fNfox5A — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) February 5, 2025
Prior to the 1990s, stock prices would decline before drops in earnings. At times, stock prices would anticipate a decline in earnings that would not materialize. But prices would generally lead earnings which slightly led the economy. pic.twitter.com/UcabAxQr6F — Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) January 14, 2025 Even in the mid-cycle slowdown of 2016, earnings declined for …
Recession dont exist in a AI market, its a thing of the past. Economic textbooks are being rewritten. White-Collar Recession: A Warning Sign A white-collar recession often serves as a precursor to a broader market downturn. Similar trends were observed in 2000 and 2008, both of which were followed by recessions in 2001–2002 and 2009, …
The Fed’s favorite (until it starts rising) inflation indicator – Core PCE – printed cooler than expected for November (+0.1% MoM vs +0.2% MoM exp) which held it steady at +2.8% YoY (below the expected 2.9%) – tied for the highest since April… Source: Bloomberg However, Headline PCE rose to +2.4% from +2.3% – its …
