US ISM manufacturing just printed 52.6, highest in the last 40 months. Heavy truck sales crash 32 percent. The recession indicator nobody’s watching just collapsed 32%.

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“The recession indicator nobody’s watching just collapsed 32%.

Heavy Truck Sales.

When companies stop buying $150K trucks, they know something you don’t.

Here is the rule:

Truck sales rising → Businesses expanding, economy strong
Truck sales flat 3+ months → Warning, growth slowing
Truck sales crashing 20%+ → Recession already here

Heavy truck sales just dropped 32% year-over-year—steepest decline since 2009.

2008: Truck sales crashed 40% → Great Recession
2020: Truck sales crashed 35% → COVID recession
2024: Truck sales down 32% → ???

Trucking companies aren’t buying because freight demand is dying.
Freight demand is dead because consumers stopped spending.
Consumers stopped spending because they’re broke.

This isn’t a leading indicator.
This is a confirmation.

The recession isn’t coming.
It’s already here.

Watch truck sales.
Ignore the GDP “growth” numbers.”