indicator

People think the yield curve is broken as a recession indicator. People are dumb. The recession kicks off AFTER the curve UNINVERTS. So 2025 is looking bad.

Conference Board: the leading economic index rose in Nov for the 1st time in over 2 years and now no longer signals an impending recession; the increase (which immediately followed the presidential election) was driven mostly by surging equity prices: pic.twitter.com/xqKrZuBtvi — E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) December 20, 2024 h/t mark000

BIG Bubbles? Biden/Democrats Spending Spree + FED = Massive Asset Bubbles = OVERVALUATION In Stock Market And Housing (Buffett Indicator, SP500 Mean Reversion, Shiller PE Ratio, CaseShiller To Gov Spending)

by confoundedinterest17 Apparently, the late Hawaiian crooner Don Ho foresaw Biden’s irresponsible spending spree. That is, BIG BUBBLES. Let’s start with the Buffett Indicator (Warren, not Jimmy!). It indicates that the stock market is STRONGLY OVERVALUED. The S&P 500 Mean Reversion Model also shows the stock market to be STRONGLY OVERVALUED. How about the Shiller P/E Ratio? Also …

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NVIDIA’s peak can’t hide the semiconductor industry’s struggles, with only 35% thriving; Warren Buffett Indicator hits 200% for the first time in history

NVIDIA is the largest member in the Semiconductor industry and is at a new all-time high, but breadth for the industry is weakening aggressively … only 35% of members are trading above their 200-day moving average (a 1-year low) NVIDIA is the largest member in the Semiconductor industry and is at a new all-time high, …

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Warren Buffett Indicator reaches 199%, highest ever; Einhorn calls it the most expensive since 1996.

Warren Buffett Indicator hits 199%, the highest level in history, surpassing the Dot Com Bubble and the Global Financial Crisis 🚨 pic.twitter.com/w5qRdLZwPb — Barchart (@Barchart) October 16, 2024 Einhorn says it’s the most expensive stock market since at least 1996 David Einhorn, the hedge-fund star who co-founded Greenlight Capital, isn’t thriving as the bull market …

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Claudia Sahm knows the job numbers are much worse than the government data shows. Her indicator showed recession 2 reports ago

Claudia Sahm knows the job numbers are much worse than the government data shows. Her indicator showed recession 2 reports ago 👀 — Gimme3Steps (@TheSouthGAJohn) September 17, 2024 https://twitter.com/RJRCapital/status/1836012662272020707 Most uncertain FOMC meeting on record BofA pic.twitter.com/WkQhKaPFcE — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 17, 2024 🔥FED WILL CUT RATES ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE 1ST TIME …

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Warren Buffett Indicator hits a historic 195%, surpassing Dot Com bubble and 2008 crisis levels.

JUST IN 🚨: Warren Buffett Indicator hits 195%, the highest level in history, surpassing the Dot Com bubble, the Global Financial Crisis, and the 2022 Bear Market pic.twitter.com/SAE5MbHTlY — Barchart (@Barchart) July 9, 2024 The Warren Buffett Indicator, a metric favored by the legendary investor Warren Buffett, has surged to a record high of 195%. …

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The recent drop in this economic indicator signals 2024 recession, mirroring past sharp downturns.

This economic indicator just saw a big move down At this rate, the recession threshold will be hit in 2024 The last 3 times it was hit ended in sharp economic downturns Leading to significant stock market declines pic.twitter.com/3h673lqYys — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 7, 2024 RECESSION IN THE US USUALLY COMES WITHIN 18 MONTHS …

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Indicator spikes precede recessions since ’95; job losses accelerate like Dot Com, Financial Crisis, Pandemic.

US labor market is only strong in the headlines: 1.5 million Americans lost their full-time job in just 6 months. Meanwhile, the BLS and Media Headlines: The US economy has been adding jobs for 40 straight months. Truly incredible.https://t.co/aBnhvZ4VI6 — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) June 18, 2024 Magic, pure magic pic.twitter.com/p914IlcsCP — Michael A. Arouet …

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US housing has become the most expensive in history.

US housing has become the most expensive in history: The median sale price of houses sold in the US hit another all-time high of $387,600 in May, measured as a 4-week average. Prices increased 4% year-over-year and exceeded the June 2023 record. Since 2021, the median home… pic.twitter.com/K9ltjcfI85 — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 30, …

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Sahm Rule and Goldman Sachs indicator signal recession since October 23, 2023, as employment outlook dims.

As economic indicators flash warning signs, the Sahm Rule and Goldman Sachs McKelvey indicator converge to declare the onset of recession since October 23, 2023. With employment outlooks turning bleak, early business surveys hint at a downturn in both manufacturing and services sectors for April, casting a shadow over the trajectory of the economy. Amidst …

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Another Lousy Job Market Indicator: WARNs Are Soaring… And Challenger-Grey Announced That March Saw Most Job Cuts Since January 2023

by confoundedinterest17 Bidenomics was born under a bad sign. Or born under large corporate donor payoffs. In the real world labor market, 2024 has been a deluge of layoffs of the US economy… 1. Everybuddy: 100% of workforce 2. Wisense: 100% of workforce 3. CodeSee: 100% of workforce 4. Twig: 100% of workforce 5. Twitch: 35% of …

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Just when everyone’s guard is down, Bank of England warns of potential asset price sharp correction; The “Buffett Indicator” is flashing red.

Probability of a Global Recession in the Next 12 Months pic.twitter.com/dgFtlfN8DD — Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) (@chigrl) March 28, 2024 America has become a gambling society. Zero day options. Meme coins. Sports betting. Everyone takes more risk… WSJ: BOE Warns That Investors May Be Too Complacent About Risks “The Bank of England on Wednesday warned …

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Buffett indicator flashes red, BlackRock CEO sells big.

The Buffett Indicator, a key market valuation metric, is signaling that the U.S. stock market is the most expensive it’s been since April 2022. This comes alongside a notable move by BlackRock’s CEO Larry Fink, who recently sold over $25 million worth of BlackRock shares, sparking concerns among investors. The Buffett Indicator indicates the U.S. …

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Clear indicator to sell everything…

🚨 Recent stock trades by Congress have caught our attention. 🔊 pic.twitter.com/k3JgpJnoqO — Quiver Quantitative (@QuiverQuant) February 16, 2024 Link to website: Congress Trading Dashboard https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/

Rumors are out that China has been seriously overstating their financial stability? Is this a indicator something more is up in China?

Asia Hedge Fund Founders Shut Shop for Big Pay at Global Giants (Bloomberg) — Hedge fund founders in Asia are jumping ship to global giants from Citadel to Millennium Management as the struggles of capital raising and pressure to make higher returns curb the attractiveness for some managers’ solo endeavors. Torq Capital Management Chief Investment …

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If declining interest in real estate licenses is an indicator of economic downturn, $SPY will peak in March/April 2024 and then it will crash horribly.

by Naive-Historian-2110 In 2008 only 9% of mortgages were delinquent or in foreclosure. it doesn’t matter if half of homeowners have a 2% mortgage. it only takes a seemingly small amount of defaults and delinquencies to send waves. It’s definitely going to be the mother of all crashes. It’s like if the GFC f**ked the …

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Conference Board Leading Indicator Records Alarming -7.8% Drop, Echoing Historical Precedents of Economic Downturn Over Six Decades; High Default Rates in Loan and Bond Market Also Signal Sharp Slowdown

The sustained 18-month decline in the Conference Board Leading Indicator is a worrying trend reminiscent of historical economic crises, particularly in 1973-74 and during the Global Financial Crisis. The current -7.8% decrease aligns with significant economic downturns over the past six decades, indicating a potential hard landing. This, coupled with a high and rising loan …

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Fed Oversight: The Neglected Indicator That Could Trigger an Unforeseen Recession

The surprise factor in the recent inflationary trend stems from the oversight of crucial indicators like M2, even within institutions like the Federal Reserve. Just about everyone (including at the Federal Reserve) was surprised by inflation. You know why? Because they didn’t pay attention to M2! They still aren’t, and I believe that the decline …

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Pushin’ Too Hard? Mortgage Rates Jump To 23-Year Highs As Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator Declined To -7.6% YoY

by confoundedinterest17 Is The Fed pushin’ too hard on rates to fight inflation? Or not hard enough?? Between the data and the overnight momentum in overseas markets, bonds are at their weakest levels in years. Mortgage-backed securities (the bonds that dictate mortgage rates) didn’t swoon quite as much as Treasuries, but as of today, it was just enough …

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