Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
This is the canary in the coal mine for the whole credit market. Private credit was supposed to be safer than banks but defaults keep climbing. When easy refinancing ends the real pain starts. Watch for more blow ups in 2026 and 2027. Fitch reports U.S. private credit default rate at 6.0% for trailing twelve …
More celebrity private jet flights get called out online. Europe pushes AC limits while rich ignore them. Rules for thee, not for me.
This isn’t another contract. The government bought the facilities. CoreCivic sold two of its biggest California detention centers to the Department of Homeland Security for $1.5 billion in cash. That number caught my attention. Washington didn’t lease more space. It bought the infrastructure. The facilities were already being used for immigration detention. Now DHS owns …
Treasury Analysts: AI Bet Could Sink Us All Why is this a secret report – we’ve been warning about this for years Treasury insiders drafted a report quietly warning that the massive AI investment boom looks like the dotcom bubble – overhyped, infrastructure-heavy, and risky to banks, private credit, chips, and the whole economy if …
The private credit bust is now starting to spread into AI and the AI buildout which up to now has been mostly financed by these shadow banks. The reason for it spreading is simple – the run on the shadow banks hasn’t abated at all, with our favorite sad bird the latest to disclose laughably …
Private payrolls grew by only 98k jobs in June according to ADP report. Economists had expected closer to 118k jobs. One retail giant cuts 15k staff to protect margins amid sluggish hiring. Planned layoffs dropped but overall job market stays weak. Unemployment rate holds steady at 4.3 percent for now. Job market is cooling faster …
Trump bought as much as $5 million in Axon stock before ICE sought $220 million Taser deal Federal disclosures show that on Feb. 10, President Donald Trump made an Axon Enterprise stock purchase valued at between $1 million and $5 million. That was roughly two weeks before U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement moved to solicit …
“Morgan Stanley caps withdrawals at private credit fund after rising pullout requests." Reuters reports Morgan Stanley’s $7B private credit fund is getting slammed with withdrawal requests again. byu/Boo_Randy_Revival ineconomy The private credit industry is facing a problem that only shows up when investors want their money back. Liquidity. Morgan Stanley has once again restricted withdrawals …
One of the investors who made a fortune betting against subprime mortgages before the 2008 financial crisis believes Wall Street may be overlooking another growing risk. This time, the target is private credit. Investor Lee Robinson reportedly generated gains of roughly 900% during the housing collapse by identifying risks that most of the market ignored. …
The private credit market just hit the moment everyone knew would eventually come. The exit door is too small. For years, private credit became one of the biggest Wall Street growth stories. Higher yields. Less public market volatility. Money pouring in from investors chasing returns. But there was always a hidden problem: These loans are …
Tesla had big problems in 2008 financial crisis. Elon put in his own last money and got private funding round on Christmas Eve 2008 to survive. Tesla got $465 million DOE loan in 2010 under EV program. It was a loan, not free bailout. Tesla paid it back early in 2013 with interest. Government also …
Something big has changed in the financial system. A market most people barely paid attention to has exploded. Private credit grew from roughly $500 billion in 2020 to around $2 trillion today. Some estimates are even higher depending on what counts. The industry expects it could reach around $4 trillion by 2030. The appeal was …
NYT report detail new White House plan to use private bank loans to pay for high medical bills System works by letting insurance companies partner with lenders to offer loans for unpaid claims This move create long term debt cycle for household similar to student loan model Health costs rose 12% in 2026 while wages …
https://hugh.cdn.rumble.cloud/video/fwe2/36/s8/2/U/f/5/u/Uf5uA.caa.mp4 THIS is the terrifying moment a private jet skids across a runway and explodes into a huge fireball with two people killed in the blast. The aircraft was reportedly attempting an emergency landing after a serious mechanical issue mid-flight but as it touched down at an airport it quickly burst into flames. Footage shows …
Dave Rubin destroys clueless young communist who admits she wants no private property VigilantFox drops the raw clip where she proudly calls herself one… She demands workers own the means of production then dodges every fact… Rubin hits her with the truth 1 percent pays 47 percent of all taxes… She immediately pivots to colonialism …
Artist loses Gmail Drive and YouTube access with years of work erased instantly… Google relies on automated moderation and rejects any appeal with zero human check… do you understand what Google's AI just did to an artist.. His entire Google account got permanently banned. Not just Drive. Gmail.. YouTube.. Every single service.. His appeal was …
Private equity loads billions in debt onto retail stores then strips assets for fast flips… Senator Elizabeth Warren blasts private equity deals and hides the real hit from online shopping plus regulations… OK, you got something right now what the fuck are you gonna do about it beside virtue signal your discovery that we’ve been …
Fitch Ratings reported US private credit default rate climbed to fresh peak for trailing 12 months. Rise driven by high interest rates stressing smaller and mid-market borrowers. Many cases involve payment-in-kind deals and distressed exchanges masking full pain. Sectors like software and auto facing extra heat from AI disruption and costs. Analysts warn rates could …
Private AI giants hit 2.7 trillion dollars in value while Nasdaq sets fresh records… OpenAI and Anthropic burn 400 billion dollars yearly against just 50 billion dollars revenue and claim 7.2 percent of entire Nasdaq… Insiders and big money players fund each other then spin endless hype while hiding the real cash burn… Insane… $2.7T …
She got dragged for $7 million in gravy train perks while attacking others. So…she’s just gonna lie like it’s nothing?😂 pic.twitter.com/18pGRfkpzg — Refugee316 (@Refugee316) May 19, 2026 .@gillibrandny just flat out LIED on camera. "I've never been on a private jet." BULLSHIT!She's been flying private and luxuriously for YEARS with taxpayer money!It's public record, Senator. …
Air Force One is back on US soil, but the fallout from the Beijing summit is just beginning… Insiders reveal Xi Jinping explicitly warned Trump that mismanaging Taiwan puts the entire relationship “in great jeopardy”… White House moves forward with a major Taiwan arms package to maintain deterrence… The Boeing deal stands: China agrees to …
via notayesmanseconomics Today I thought I would take a look at the world of private credit and see firstly what is going on and secondly what risks it poses. Let us start with what it is via Blackrock. Private credit represents part of the broader alternative’s universe, referring to non-traditional assets that provide flexible lending solutions. Private credit …
Is a Private-Credit Crisis Imminent? The rapid expansion of opaque and minimally regulated lending outside the traditional banking system over the past 15 years largely flew—as intended—under regulators’ radar. Now, however, signs of trouble in shadow banking are multiplying, with rising redemptions and notable fund failures stoking fears of a 2008-style crisis. Though we might …
Rainmaker Technology validates 143 million gallons of manmade precipitation… CEO Augustus Doricko: “We have unambiguously measured the results of seeding”… Oregon and Utah operations utilize drone-based radar to “unleash” snowfall… Breakthrough signals the start of “water as infrastructure” for the American West… https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/rainmakers-cloud-seeding-breakthrough-first-ever-proof-of-manmade-precipitation-143m-gallons-for-oregon–utah-302753784.html “EL SEGUNDO, Calif., April 27, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Today, Rainmaker Technology Corporation …
Foreign Private Investors now own more U.S. Treasuries than Foreign Central Banks for the first time in history byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts 🇺🇸 Foreigners dumped ANOTHER $200 BILLION into U.S. Treasuries in February, a new ALL-TIME RECORD at $9.49 TRILLION Japan +$14B, UK +$17B, stacking hard. China barely touched theirs. The world’s still obsessed with American debt. …
THE FED IS NOW PRIVATELY PREPARING FOR A POSSIBLE $2 TRILLION CREDIT MARKET COLLAPSE. For the first time in over a decade, the Fed has started directly asking U.S. banks to hand over their exposure numbers to the private credit market. This is the exact move regulators make when they stop trusting public numbers and …
Cracks in the US private credit market are widening: Investors requested a record -$14.0 billion in redemptions from private credit funds in Q1 2026. This is up +146% from -$5.7 billion in Q4 2025 and +278% higher than the -$3.7 billion in the full year 2024. Meanwhile, just… pic.twitter.com/wBJ3bUSW1X — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April …
bro was right. Atlassian down 75%. HubSpot down 69%. Figma down 86%. Almost all of them down 30–70% from their 52-week highs. AI is literally eating software alive and repricing every company in real time. SaaS is cooked fr 😭 https://t.co/NsOxRTLLEp pic.twitter.com/Xk8QBCTJD3 — shirish (@shiri_shh) April 10, 2026 Anthropic's valuation just surged past OpenAI'sin private …
https://www.wsj.com/finance/wall-street-builds-new-tool-to-bet-against-private-credit-bdf8bafa A report just dropped that should have everyone be more cautious. Major banks (Goldman, BofA, Barclays) are teaming up with S&P Global to launch a Credit-Default Swap (CDS) Index for Private Credit. If you aren’t familiar with 2008 history, this is essentially the “Big Short” alarm bell. Here’s the breakdown of why this is …
Private credit is in big trouble. Slow motion bank run byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts Carlyle just capped redemptions on its flagship private credit fund after investors slammed in 15.7 percent withdrawal requests, the latest gate in a wave hitting semi-liquid vehicles. That liquidity squeeze rolls straight into bank balance sheets and regional lenders who already lag the …