A hub for independent voices and hard truths
The 2008 parallels aren’t subtle anymore. Let me lay them out: ✓ Credit bubble reversing ✓ Shadow banks gating investor redemptions ✓ Forced asset sales to raise cash ✓ Collateral getting marked down (JP Morgan just did this) ✓ Oil shock driving prices toward $100 ✓ Central bankers focused on …
A female pastor in Missouri has been suspended after her ties to Jeffrey Epstein were brought to light. Reverend Stephanie L Remington was placed on leave for 90 days last Thursday by Bishop Robert Farr of the Missouri Conference of the United Methodist Church. Remington worked as Epstein’s administrative assistant …
While everyone is watching missiles flying across the Middle East and oil prices surging toward $100 a barrel, something extremely troubling is happening inside the financial system that directly affects retirement savings across the United States. A $33 billion private credit fund managed by Cliffwater just told investors they could …
Fund Seen As ‘First Domino In Private Credit Bank Run’ Hit With Over 7% In Redemptions: THE AVALANCHE IS NEXT! *MORGAN STANLEY LIMITS REDEMPTIONS ON PRIVATE CREDIT FUND — zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 11, 2026 this is a disaster *CLIFFWATER $33 BLN PRIVATE CREDIT FUND Q1 REDEMPTIONS REACH 14% And Cliffwater …
The private equity complex is in the midst of a pretty nasty crash Current drawdowns from the highs: Carlyle -25%Apollo -39%Ares -42%Blackstone -43%KKR -44%Blue Owl -61% pic.twitter.com/MAlfqClMNw — Ben Carlson (@awealthofcs) March 4, 2026 Per Grok: Drawdown here means the % decline in these public firms’ stock prices from their …
StockMarket.News @_Investinq Oracle just told every AI company on earth the same thing. Your models are worthless. Not the technology, talent or the billions spent training them. But the data they were trained on. Larry Ellison, the man who built Oracle into the backbone of global enterprise just dropped a …
Another day, several more critical development in the credit markets. Loss projections are soaring. A second fund stepped forward acknowledging asset sales (at lower prices). Big (related) shift in rates markets that ties in the Fed, yield curve, and everything else. Here we go over all three; what happened, what …
$UBS predicts private credit default rates to reach up to 15% in bear case (FT)https://t.co/r7MBvNICG5 — Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) (@SpecialSitsNews) February 25, 2026 UBS warns of 15% default rates in private credit — Wall Street is starting to worry. (Bloomberg) — A few weeks ago, analysts at …
Bull Theory @BullTheoryio 🚨THE $2 TRILLION PRIVATE CREDIT MARKET COULD BE FACING ITS FIRST MAJOR BANKRUPTCY. Blue Owl manages about $273 billion in assets. It is one of the biggest lenders behind the AI data center buildout. When companies like Meta, CoreWeave, or Crusoe need billions to build large data …
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm Is this a “canary-in-the-coalmine” moment, similar to August 2007? This question will be on the mind of some investors and policymakers this morning as they assess the news that, quoting the FT, the “private credit group Blue Owl will permanently restrict investors from withdrawing their cash …
Crypto Rover @cryptorover 🚨BIG WARNING: THE FIRST MAJOR DOMINO HAS FALLEN. Today, Blue Owl Capital announced that it permanently halted redemptions for Blue Owl Capital Corp II (OBDC II), its $1.7 billion private credit fund aimed at retail investors. And this is not a small thing. Blue Owl Capital is …
via triptoasturias Epstein didn’t climb his way to power. He was handed it by a sequence of people who gave him access, training, and protection at every stage. Here’s the timeline the media won’t walk you through. 𝟏𝟗𝟕𝟒: 𝐓𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐖𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐚 𝐃𝐞𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐞 Epstein lands a job teaching math and physics …
This is a four minute video but worth watching. It describes how there are now more “private equity” funds in the US than McDonalds. Essentially, these private equity funds are buying up businesses and trading them back and forth with each other at ever increasing prices. While they do this …
👇📌TLDR: For those short on time: * Life insurers hold more junk debt than 2007 subprime bonds * Private credit defaults hit 5.8% as fund values drop * Treasury basis trade leverage reached $1.4 trillion * Hedge fund leverage sits at the highest level ever recorded *… — Sagzee (@IAmSagzee) …
“The Fed published a research note in March 2025 that almost nobody read. It found that life insurers’ exposure to below-investment-grade debt now exceeds the industry’s exposure to subprime mortgage-backed securities in late 2007. Let that land. The same financial system that nearly collapsed from subprime has quietly built a …
“Just spoke with a couple of MDs at a large institutional private equity fund They still believe that Claude is a fad and it will take decades before any real companies adopt them Currently only subscribed to a ChatGPT corporate account at work Mentioned multiple times that absolutely nothing has …
Google is selling 100 year debt byu/donopumpi inwallstreetbets BREAKING: Google $GOOG to issue a rare 100-year bond as part of a $20 billion multi-currency debt sale, aimed at funding AI infrastructure. This marks the first such long-term tech issuance since the 2000 dot-com era. What stage? — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) February …
Last night’s #SuperBowlLX private jet exodus was wild! Five Bay Area airports (SFO, SJC, OAK, LVK & HWD) together saw a 1,136% increase in bizjet departures during the immediate post-game hours—compared to the previous Sunday. 🏈✈️ pic.twitter.com/lWb9Uz4jMM — Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) February 9, 2026
They thought they were reassuring debt markets over AI cash. Instead, the company kicked a hornet’s nest, unleashing a MAJOR selloff that is sweeping through private credit. It isn’t just the BDCs (publicly traded funds) this time, either. The asset managers themselves are now getting swept up in the money …
UBS worst-case AI disruption scenarios: – Private credit: 13% defaults – Leveraged loans: 8% – High-yield bonds: 4% PC most exposed because that’s where 2021-2022 vintage software deals got funded when banks couldn’t syndicate. The concentration is now becoming the vulnerability. UBS worst-case AI disruption scenarios: – Private credit: 13% …
Hundreds of private equity firms are sitting on portfolios that nobody wants to buy and the flood of competition is making it worse. Their investors are fed up. This isn’t speculation. The capital is out there, but it’s not going into overpriced, illiquid assets. PE firms thought they could paper …
“Private credit exposure to AI disruption high, not priced in – UBS” No kidding. “…We estimate that 25–35% of private credit portfolios face elevated AI disruption risk. Using BDC portfolios as a proxy (AUM of ~$450 billion, $350 billion of which is public), exposure to high disruption risk subsectors is …
Private credit firms sold a record amount of debt to themselves last year as the buyout sector’s slowdown pushed them to find new ways to generate cash from loans to companies owned by private equity. Private lenders struck so-called continuation deals worth $15bn globally in 2025, up from almost $4bn …
Its sad. Guys going broke for a fake relationship — hotrod1 (@o2felt) January 27, 2026
The Norwegian government has begun informing citizens about the possibility of property requisitioning in wartime. The letters have no practical significance in peacetime, but warn that in the event of war, the state may requisition private property, according to euronews. Thousands of Norwegians will receive notices informing them that their homes, …
ABF was supposed to be the safe part of private credit. Downside protected. Self-liquidating. Diversified. Turns out "collateral-backed" only works if the collateral is worth something. So much for the safe stuff. pic.twitter.com/oWQvoIHXIZ — junkbondinvestor (@junkbondinvest) January 26, 2026 April is about perfect for a crisis to have max midterm …
by Martin Armstrong Private credit or direct lending soared in popularity after the 2008 recession when regulators cracked down on banks, but now, companies backed by direct loans are beginning to fail. Fears surrounding private lenders and their legitimacy are coming to a head. Private credit is lending outside the …
The Federal Aviation Administration says a private aircraft with eight people on board has crashed on takeoff from Bangor International Airport in Maine. There was no immediate word on the conditions of those aboard. #maine Read more: https:bit.ly/49X4FMj
If BlackRock is taking hits now, who is next in private credit? Friday evening news drop Troubled Loans Hammer BlackRock’s Private Credit Fund “A BlackRock Inc. private debt fund expects to mark down the net value of its assets 19% after a string of troubled loans weighed on results, marking …
Private credit has surged in popularity since post-financial crisis regulations discouraged banks from serving riskier borrowers. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned after a pair of private credit-backed companies declared bankruptcy that problems in credit are rarely isolated. Companies that are most linked to the asset class, such as Blue …