Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
First, we have our “subprime is contained” moment from the Fed. Second, the run on Blue Owl is “unprecedented.” Third, and more important than either of those, it’s **who** is doing the running. In its disclosure, the sad owl let slip the truth underneath more ridiculous spin. When investors demand 20% to 40% out of …
UBS freezing withdrawals for up to three years and firms like Apollo and BlackRock putting limits in place is not normal market behavior, that is liquidity stress showing itself in real time. People keep comparing this to 2008 like it is a straight repeat, it is not the same structure, but the core problem feels …
NEW DELHI/SINGAPORE, – India’s Reliance Industries, operator of the world’s biggest refining complex, has purchased 5 million barrels of Iranian crude, days after the U.S. temporarily removed sanctions on the oil, three sources familiar with the matter said on Tuesday. The Indian refiner bought the oil from the National Iranian Oil Co., two of the …
Wall Street crisis spreads as shadow bank blocks withdrawal Apollo and BlackRock Cap Withdrawals — $1.8 Trillion Private Credit Market Under Real Stress Apollo Global Management capped investor redemptions at one of its largest non-traded private credit funds, Apollo Debt Solutions. According to a shareholder letter, it capped redemptions at 5% of outstanding shares after …
by Martin Armstrong Jerome Powell finally said out loud what the revisions have been quietly showing for months. During his March 18 press conference, Powell said that “effectively there’s zero net job creation in the private sector” over roughly the past six months after adjusting for what Fed staff view as overstatement in the payroll …
Job creation in the US has slowed to essentially zero, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday as the Fed released its latest economic projections, which included slightly higher economic growth than previously projected and little change to the unemployment rate. Altogether, Powell said, central bankers see “a degree of stability” in the labor market. …
(Bloomberg) — Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are among investment banks offering hedge fund clients ways to bet against the $1.8 trillion private credit market, people with knowledge of the matter said. The firms have assembled baskets of listed companies with exposure to the space, the people said, who requested not …
The 2008 parallels aren’t subtle anymore. Let me lay them out: ✓ Credit bubble reversing ✓ Shadow banks gating investor redemptions ✓ Forced asset sales to raise cash ✓ Collateral getting marked down (JP Morgan just did this) ✓ Oil shock driving prices toward $100 ✓ Central bankers focused on inflation, the wrong risk ✓ …
A female pastor in Missouri has been suspended after her ties to Jeffrey Epstein were brought to light. Reverend Stephanie L Remington was placed on leave for 90 days last Thursday by Bishop Robert Farr of the Missouri Conference of the United Methodist Church. Remington worked as Epstein’s administrative assistant and property manager on Little …
While everyone is watching missiles flying across the Middle East and oil prices surging toward $100 a barrel, something extremely troubling is happening inside the financial system that directly affects retirement savings across the United States. A $33 billion private credit fund managed by Cliffwater just told investors they could not withdraw their money. Investors …
Fund Seen As ‘First Domino In Private Credit Bank Run’ Hit With Over 7% In Redemptions: THE AVALANCHE IS NEXT! *MORGAN STANLEY LIMITS REDEMPTIONS ON PRIVATE CREDIT FUND — zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 11, 2026 this is a disaster *CLIFFWATER $33 BLN PRIVATE CREDIT FUND Q1 REDEMPTIONS REACH 14% And Cliffwater is interval, meaning it is …
The private equity complex is in the midst of a pretty nasty crash Current drawdowns from the highs: Carlyle -25%Apollo -39%Ares -42%Blackstone -43%KKR -44%Blue Owl -61% pic.twitter.com/MAlfqClMNw — Ben Carlson (@awealthofcs) March 4, 2026 Per Grok: Drawdown here means the % decline in these public firms’ stock prices from their all-time highs (Nov 2024) to …
StockMarket.News @_Investinq Oracle just told every AI company on earth the same thing. Your models are worthless. Not the technology, talent or the billions spent training them. But the data they were trained on. Larry Ellison, the man who built Oracle into the backbone of global enterprise just dropped a bombshell. He said ChatGPT, Gemini, …
Another day, several more critical development in the credit markets. Loss projections are soaring. A second fund stepped forward acknowledging asset sales (at lower prices). Big (related) shift in rates markets that ties in the Fed, yield curve, and everything else. Here we go over all three; what happened, what it all means.
$UBS predicts private credit default rates to reach up to 15% in bear case (FT)https://t.co/r7MBvNICG5 — Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) (@SpecialSitsNews) February 25, 2026 UBS warns of 15% default rates in private credit — Wall Street is starting to worry. (Bloomberg) — A few weeks ago, analysts at UBS Group AG laid out …
Bull Theory @BullTheoryio 🚨THE $2 TRILLION PRIVATE CREDIT MARKET COULD BE FACING ITS FIRST MAJOR BANKRUPTCY. Blue Owl manages about $273 billion in assets. It is one of the biggest lenders behind the AI data center buildout. When companies like Meta, CoreWeave, or Crusoe need billions to build large data center campuses, they often go …
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm Is this a “canary-in-the-coalmine” moment, similar to August 2007? This question will be on the mind of some investors and policymakers this morning as they assess the news that, quoting the FT, the “private credit group Blue Owl will permanently restrict investors from withdrawing their cash from its inaugural private retail …
Crypto Rover @cryptorover 🚨BIG WARNING: THE FIRST MAJOR DOMINO HAS FALLEN. Today, Blue Owl Capital announced that it permanently halted redemptions for Blue Owl Capital Corp II (OBDC II), its $1.7 billion private credit fund aimed at retail investors. And this is not a small thing. Blue Owl Capital is a major alternative asset manager …
via triptoasturias Epstein didn’t climb his way to power. He was handed it by a sequence of people who gave him access, training, and protection at every stage. Here’s the timeline the media won’t walk you through. 𝟏𝟗𝟕𝟒: 𝐓𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐖𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐚 𝐃𝐞𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐞 Epstein lands a job teaching math and physics at the Dalton School, one …
This is a four minute video but worth watching. It describes how there are now more “private equity” funds in the US than McDonalds. Essentially, these private equity funds are buying up businesses and trading them back and forth with each other at ever increasing prices. While they do this they collect funds from investors …
👇📌TLDR: For those short on time: * Life insurers hold more junk debt than 2007 subprime bonds * Private credit defaults hit 5.8% as fund values drop * Treasury basis trade leverage reached $1.4 trillion * Hedge fund leverage sits at the highest level ever recorded *… — Sagzee (@IAmSagzee) February 13, 2026 WARNING: SOMETHING …
“The Fed published a research note in March 2025 that almost nobody read. It found that life insurers’ exposure to below-investment-grade debt now exceeds the industry’s exposure to subprime mortgage-backed securities in late 2007. Let that land. The same financial system that nearly collapsed from subprime has quietly built a larger position in an asset …
“Just spoke with a couple of MDs at a large institutional private equity fund They still believe that Claude is a fad and it will take decades before any real companies adopt them Currently only subscribed to a ChatGPT corporate account at work Mentioned multiple times that absolutely nothing has changed about their workflow since …
Google is selling 100 year debt byu/donopumpi inwallstreetbets BREAKING: Google $GOOG to issue a rare 100-year bond as part of a $20 billion multi-currency debt sale, aimed at funding AI infrastructure. This marks the first such long-term tech issuance since the 2000 dot-com era. What stage? — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) February 9, 2026 Big Tech is …
Last night’s #SuperBowlLX private jet exodus was wild! Five Bay Area airports (SFO, SJC, OAK, LVK & HWD) together saw a 1,136% increase in bizjet departures during the immediate post-game hours—compared to the previous Sunday. 🏈✈️ pic.twitter.com/lWb9Uz4jMM — Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) February 9, 2026
They thought they were reassuring debt markets over AI cash. Instead, the company kicked a hornet’s nest, unleashing a MAJOR selloff that is sweeping through private credit. It isn’t just the BDCs (publicly traded funds) this time, either. The asset managers themselves are now getting swept up in the money outflows. Looks like they figured …
UBS worst-case AI disruption scenarios: – Private credit: 13% defaults – Leveraged loans: 8% – High-yield bonds: 4% PC most exposed because that’s where 2021-2022 vintage software deals got funded when banks couldn’t syndicate. The concentration is now becoming the vulnerability. UBS worst-case AI disruption scenarios: – Private credit: 13% defaults– Leveraged loans: 8%– High-yield …
Hundreds of private equity firms are sitting on portfolios that nobody wants to buy and the flood of competition is making it worse. Their investors are fed up. This isn’t speculation. The capital is out there, but it’s not going into overpriced, illiquid assets. PE firms thought they could paper over risk forever. They can’t. …
“Private credit exposure to AI disruption high, not priced in – UBS” No kidding. “…We estimate that 25–35% of private credit portfolios face elevated AI disruption risk. Using BDC portfolios as a proxy (AUM of ~$450 billion, $350 billion of which is public), exposure to high disruption risk subsectors is most acute in technology (~24% …
