Air Force One is back on US soil, but the fallout from the Beijing summit is just beginning…
Insiders reveal Xi Jinping explicitly warned Trump that mismanaging Taiwan puts the entire relationship “in great jeopardy”…
White House moves forward with a major Taiwan arms package to maintain deterrence…
The Boeing deal stands: China agrees to buy 200 aircraft, a massive cash injection for the US planemaker…
Trump labels Xi “all business” and compares him to a Hollywood character from “central casting”…
The photo-ops in the Zhongnanhai Garden were pleasant, but the undercurrent was pure ice…
In the first bilateral meeting on the first day of Trump’s visit, Chinese President Xi Jinping issued a blunt Taiwan warning. According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s readout of the exchange, Xi called Taiwan the “most important issue in China-US relations.” He then warned Trump to “exercise extra caution,” stating that “otherwise, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy.” The timing is important: Beijing is trying to convince the Trump administration to delay or cancel a pending US arms sale to Taiwan. Congress has approved two packages: an $11 billion package, which the White House approved in December, and a $14 billion package, which is still awaiting the green light from the White House. Beijing wants to convince Trump that approving the second package will derail US-China relations and the deliverables he was seeking via this summit.
The United States committed to providing Taiwan with the arms it needs for its own defense back in 1979. That was foundational to the US “One China” policy. When Washington shifted its official diplomatic relationship from Taiwan to Beijing in 1979, it committed to provide Taiwan with “such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability.” This promise is enshrined in the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act.
Beijing knows this. But Chinese leaders view these arms sales as a major irritant. If Taiwan did not receive US defense support, then it would be much easier for China to take the island by force. Hence Xi’s attempt to lobby Trump for inaction on the pending $14 billion package.
Thus far, the Trump administration does not appear to have taken the bait. There are no indications that the US president made any statements of appeasement in Beijing or suggested that he would weaken long-standing support for Taiwan in exchange for trade deals or other Chinese promises. (If Trump had, Beijing would be trumpeting them everywhere.)
Instead, Trump told reporters on the plane home, “On Taiwan, he feels very strongly, I made no commitment either way.” That is far from a worst-case outcome. Meanwhile, on the sidelines in Beijing, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated in an interview with NBC that “US policy on the issue of Taiwan is unchanged as of today.” Now we watch to see if this sticks.