Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷BREAKING: Trump is expected to convene all relevant parties on the Iran issue tomorrow and formulate a decision by 3:00 PM (US time). By 10:00 PM Israeli time – about an hour before the end of trading on Wall Street. THIS COMING WEEKEND WILL BE CRITICAL.⌛️ pic.twitter.com/YgC4h3HKnh — Eli Afriat 🇮🇱 (@EliAfriatISR) February 26, 2026 …
Gold is roaring because the US has stopped pretending. The polite version is “strong dollar policy.” The real version is: we will accept and even welcome, a softer dollar to win the trade war and rebuild American industry Gold Made an ATH at $5,500+ and the dollar keeps sliding. Most people think it’s just “safe-haven …
Just waiting for capital markets to figure out we are in a recession. https://t.co/5ff9n2IG0N pic.twitter.com/NN5wfno1MN — Edward Dowd (@DowdEdward) February 10, 2026 The market structure is way different than 2002-2008. I suspect the share of passive investing has changed the discounting mechanism and implies a more shocking rapid repricing when the passive money starts moving. …
When it comes to the US, investors the world over now love to Bash All Day, Buy All Night. Travelling recently across Asia, Europe and the Middle East, I was struck by the rising intensity of complaints about America under Donald Trump, from its tariffs to designs on Greenland and apparent disregard for the old …
Ban stock trading for Congress Congressman Michael McCaul caught Insider Trading $576 million dollars, makes $20 million per month and owns a $20 million dollar private jet – He makes an average of $24,000,000 every single month – Lives in a $10 million dollar mansion – This is where he keeps his $1,100,000 car collection, …
by confoundedinterest17 Collapsing crypto and metal prices coupled with a tanking stock market is pointing to EXTREME FEAR. The BofA bull and bear indicator says the same thing. The realization that government is just a money laundering operation for politicians and that The Fed is just a friend of the big banks says it all. …
🚨 SILVER DUMP WAS DONE BY JPMORGAN, AND I'VE GOT PROOF. A COMEX report says JPMorgan closed its silver short around ~$78. Silver went from ~$121 to ~$74, then settled around ~$78. That's the EXACT level. That timing isn't random. Now connect the dots. On Dec 2, 2025, the… pic.twitter.com/DoHdcS7Cns — Wimar.X (@DefiWimar) January 31, …
Expect a lot of violence as the markets absorb the Warsh pick. Bitcoin was slammed too. Powell is pretty much irrelevant now. He only has two more FOMC meetings. The markets are going to want to know exactly how Warsh plans to proceed. Things could get wild for awhile https://t.co/QipdlY7zw1 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) January …
by Michael When the economy and the financial system are both greatly shaken at the same time, the consequences can be extremely painful. Most of you still clearly remember what life was like in 2008 and 2009. It was such a dark chapter in American history. But there have been other times when we have …
It looks like the Japanese government just pulled the trigger and is now actively intervening in the FX market selling Treasuries to fetch USD they then dump to buy and strengthen the JPY 👀🚨 https://t.co/3M4VLLU0gg pic.twitter.com/Sdx5R1z2Zo — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) January 23, 2026 BOOM! Bank of Japan intervention ⚡ USDJPY goes Ooppsie.. How much money …
Florida, Texas and California are now firmly at the center of America’s housing crash – accounting for 12 of the 14 major metro areas where home prices are falling. The sharpest drop was recorded in Dallas, TX, where median sale prices slid 7.6 percent from a year earlier. Florida’s once-red-hot housing market is also cracking, …
Global institutional investors have never held so little cash: Cash allocation by fund managers is down to just 3.2%, the lowest since data began in the 1990s. This marks a -1.6 percentage point decline since April, one of the fastest drops since the survey started. Cash… pic.twitter.com/4hoUh1JNNa — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 22, 2026 …
Fox: I think the market would actually be quite happy if the Supreme Court rejected Trump's current tariff strategy. It would be a positive for the market. That would mean less uncertainty. That would be better for the US economy. pic.twitter.com/wX73aOF8NB — FactPost (@factpostnews) January 20, 2026 Turns out, Trump’s $200 Billion gimmick to lower …
Citibank just dropped a bombshell warning: that in six days we are facing a massive economic slowdown and a stock market crash. The shocking truth, the real crisis is already brewing.
JP Morgan missed on its earnings after failing to sell as many bonds as it was expecting for its customers. At the same time, Jamie Dimon, the bank’s CEO, he of cockroach fame, was forced to acknowledge how the labor market had softened before then going on to describe Goldilocks anyway. This is something that …
With the Fed hinting at cuts and Trump gearing up for a midterm narrative, you can hear the backroom consensus already: keep asset prices high even if Main Street is struggling. A market that only goes up when debt is soaring and growth is slowing stops being real. Trump will likely pull every lever possible …
They keep telling people everything is fine while quietly shoving emergency cash into the system like it is a house fire at 3 a.m. When banks start dumping mortgage paper just to get overnight money, that is not confidence, that is panic dressed up as plumbing. The scary part is not the headlines you see, …
This isn’t some random commodities pop. This is what happens when governments fund deficits with short-term paper and quietly drain liquidity from the system. Money tightens, stress shows up first in hard assets, and suddenly everyone remembers what real collateral looks like. The market is front-running central banks because it knows the squeeze always breaks …
There’s nowhere else to park cash with bonds broken, crypto unstable, Japan hiking, and China already heated. Metals aren’t just a trade, they’re the last real safe harbor left before the next wave hits. BofA's contrarian sell signal got triggered Since 2002, 16 sell signals have been followed by a median 2.7% decline in global …
• U.S. stock markets will close at 1:00 p.m on Wednesday. The bond markets will close at 2:00 p.m. • The U.S. markets and most global markets will be closed Thursday for observance of the Christmas holiday. • Some global markets will be closed Friday as the Boxing Day… pic.twitter.com/GeGHwBCyER — Jesse Cohen (@JesseCohenInv) December …
by davefairtex Here’s the data I got from the BOJ itself. It doesn’t update until end of month, so that JGB10Y should be 2.09, not 1.81. That’s bad, but not worst ever. Why this matters: the JGB 30 (blue line) started being issued in 1999 (1999-09-02 2.84%). The 10 and 20 have been around since …
“We’re standing at the edge of a market reckoning that will leave 2007-2008 looking like a footnote. The longest bull market in history doesn’t end quietly. Consider this your final warning. Heading into 2026 the underlying stress in financial markets is clearer than most headlines suggest. Regional banks still carry significant commercial real estate exposure …
Bond markets do not scream unless something is wrong. Japan cracking at a 26 year high while France and Germany follow is not a coincidence. This is the cost of pretending debt did not matter for a decade. Once the bond vigilantes wake up, they do not go back to sleep easily. https://twitter.com/GordianKnotFinX/status/2002947193347658025 Gold hits …
Jesse Cohen @JesseCohenInv Here’s my gameplan for 2026: >Go short S&P 500 & Nasdaq $QQQ >Hold until the market dumps at least 15%-20% >Buy the dip in top-tier tech stocks trading at single-digit EBITDA multiples >Fed Chair Powell fired >Wait for Trump and his new Fed chair to come to the rescue with rate cuts …
All this cash flying around and Bitcoin still tanks. The markets are clearly not buying the Fed’s or Treasury’s happy talk. Liquidity everywhere but risk assets shrug and slide anyway. This is the kind of week that makes you wonder who is really in control. 🇺🇸 Fed bought $23.13 billion in T-bills this week. 🇨🇳 …
Anyone paying attention knows this is cooked. Prediction markets have no come back down on future rate cuts. Now a 25% chance of a cut in January — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) December 18, 2025 So… CPI is down to 2.7% because they stopped measuring everything except gasoline and cars… 🤪 WTF is going on here? …
The Fed just admitted markets won’t buy $9 trillion of federal debt coming due. So the Fed will. Last time the Fed did this in the 1940’s it led to 20% inflation. When Germany did it in the 1930’s it led to hyperinflation. pic.twitter.com/psiog1hcLo — Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) December 15, 2025 Before and …
Market liquidity is surging: The Treasury General Account (TGA) dropped -$78 billion over the last week, the largest liquidity injection since June. The TGA is the US government’s main cash account at the Federal Reserve, and when it declines, cash flows directly into the financial system and boosts liquidity. This marks the 4th-largest weekly drop …
BOJ rate decision this week.💹 The bond market has decided for the BOJ, which is why it’s most likely they will hike rates and it would be a colossal mistake if they don’t. More importantly, the BOJ is likely to pledge continued gradual rate hikes this week. This could trigger the carry trade unwind and …
Jeff Gundlach on 2026 Positioning TLDR: > Long the belly (2-10 year maturities) > Long commodities > Long $GLD > Long high-quality fixed income > Long EM fixed income > Long non-US equities < Short USD $DXY < Short long-duration $TLT < Short private credit < Short high yield https://twitter.com/zoomyzoomm/status/1999682682641613283 https://twitter.com/zoomyzoomm/status/1999683233710272667