Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
$MSFT news last week now this, what is SEC doing? https://t.co/ieuyGXnoC3 — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) December 12, 2025 Grok: Oracle stock fell after Bloomberg reported delays in some OpenAI data centers to 2028 due to labor/material shortages. Oracle denied it, stating no delays to contractual sites and all milestones on track. This echoes last week’s report …
Ladies and Gentlemens, the Shiller PE just hit its highest level in 25 years. The second most overvalued market in history. Back then rates were rising; now we're cutting. LOL Guess what happens next. pic.twitter.com/4LyzObR7Ca — The Great Martis (@great_martis) December 10, 2025 Just In: The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates 25bps (as expected) to …
Playing out, sadly: RECESSION INTO ALL TIME HIGHS #Employment ADP commentary from Chief Economist Richardson: “Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment. And while November’s slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses.” Playing out, sadly: RECESSION INTO ALL TIME HIGHS#Employment ADP …
Alternative data shows US layoffs are surging: Job cuts tracked by MacroEdge jumped +70,609 MoM in October, to 154,559, the highest in at least 2 years. Monthly job cuts have now exceeded 100,000 for the 5th time this year. At the same time, layoff announcements compiled by Challenger Gray spiked +99,010, to 153,074, the highest …
The collapsing collateral pyramid: When MBS replaces Treasuries in repo, the system is running out of AAA ammunition. This is exactly how the shadow collateral system breaks: •Treasuries = pristine •MBS = haircut-heavy, riskier •Agencies = dead middle •Everything below = nuclear waste If the Fed is now vacuuming up MBS to keep funding markets …
Nothing is going to stop this. In the case of a deeper slowdown, T-bill issuance will accelerate even further. — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) November 18, 2025 We are borrowing so much because Social Security and Medicare are driving huge deficits We need to cut back on these programs or the deficits are going to …
“THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM JUST BROKE IN TOKYO Japan’s 30-year bond yield hit 3.41% today. That number means nothing to you. Here’s why it should terrify you. Japan owes 230% of everything it produces. It’s the most indebted nation in human history. For 35 years, they kept the lights on by borrowing at near-zero rates. …
by Michael The ride up was a lot of fun for crypto investors, but now many of them are getting wiped out by the ride down. For a long time, people were using borrowed money to make absolutely enormous returns in the cryptocurrency market. Unfortunately, that bubble is bursting and an epic cryptocurrency crash is now …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, I don’t know and you don’t either. Instead, let’s discuss “What If?” S&P 500 daily chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com, anecdotes by Mish Daily Technically Speaking Other than to say valuations are the most stretched in history, I don’t care to discuss fundamentals. Technically speaking there are four open gaps …
Repo-pocalypse: Banks Are Quietly Borrowing from the Fed Again Like It’s 2020 The Fed injected $125 billion into the banking system in just five days — its largest short-term cash rescue since the 2020 crisis. Banks are tapping the Fed’s repo window at pandemic-era levels, a signal that liquidity may be thinning faster than expected. …
💥BREAKING: 🇯🇵 JAPAN’S 10-YEAR YIELD JUMPS TO HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS. pic.twitter.com/YDicvBvKV3 — Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) November 17, 2025 JAPAN JUST KILLED THE GLOBAL MONEY PRINTER AND NOBODY NOTICED The most dangerous number in finance right now is 1.71%. That’s Japan’s 10-year bond yield. Highest since 2008. Here’s why your retirement just …
CDS MARKET FLASHING WARNING SIGNS: CDS spreads continue to surge for AI companies. Oracle, CoreWeave 10Y CDS spreads are up over 30% in the past month alone, with other major players also up double digits. We are seeing a ton of heavy, upfront “capex” spending by these companies. Not only that, but these hyperscalers are …
People keep trying to drag this into crash talk while the tape is telling a different story. Breadth is firming and buyers keep showing up on every dip, so a short rally makes more sense than another doom cycle right now. MOVE Index Credit Markets not buying into the Wall St narrative the AI is …
by Michael What is the Fed not telling us? The numbers clearly indicate that big trouble is brewing in the banking system. I wish that I could specifically tell you which banks are in the most trouble, but at this stage we simply aren’t being told anything. They probably figure that the best approach is …
Here is the set-up going into tomorrow and next week: Two weeks ago on Friday Trump pounded stocks lower in the morning by threatening to escalate the trade war with China. Last week, there were concerns over a renewed bank run. And early this week there was a momentum stock crash. Each time the lower …
Here is the list of subprime lenders and related firms that have recently collapsed or filed for bankruptcy: Tricolor – Subprime auto lender and used car retailer; filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy in September 2025 amid fraud allegations and triggered major losses for Barclays First Brands – Auto parts supplier with deep ties to subprime …
Money market funds just hit an all-time high of $7.4 TRILLION 99% chance the Fed cuts rates in 6 days. Rate cuts will push treasury holders to seek more risk, driving liquidity into Bitcoin and other assets Liquidity tsunami incoming ‼️ Money market funds just hit an all-time high of $7.4 TRILLION 99% chance the …
This story just won’t go away. Private credit=subprime MBS 💀 https://t.co/LlOq0NvN1u — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) October 22, 2025 Andrew Bailey has said the crisis in the $3tn shadow banking industry has echoes of 2008, in comments that will fuel concerns about a looming crash. The Governor of the Bank of England said private credit lenders …
Thank goodness we have vigilant, hyper-competent stewards of our financial system such as Sens. Maxine Waters and Elizabeth Warren to ensure no systemic risks are allowed to threaten the solvency of our banks. What’s going on in the Corporate Junk Bond Levered Funds? 👀 @DowdEdward pic.twitter.com/9XLSpJ5kf4 — Will O'Hara, CMT (@WillOHara131) October 20, 2025 “Bank …
First Brands BANKRUPTCY shakes credit markets: The collapse WIPED OUT $4 billion in leveraged loans held across ~80 CLOs from PGIM, Franklin Templeton, Blackstone, and others. The sudden failure is a major warning for the broader credit market and leveraged loan sector… More corporate failures to come? ⚠️First Brands BANKRUPTCY shakes credit markets: The collapse …
Crytpo saw its biggest liquidations in history Friday when Trade Wars 2.2 flared up. Commodities were also pounded, bonds bigtime bid, even stocks sent significantly lower. Tariffs aren’t really the issue here, either, as a confluence of negatives have been sapping sentiment for the past few weeks. The stock market looks stronger than ever — …
Housing markets "freeze" before they crash. Why? Because its an illiquid market primarily owned by broke morons who can't do basic math. https://t.co/5DlojhK7My pic.twitter.com/rjnEclAoap — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) October 8, 2025 Homebuyers Are Canceling Deals at a Record Rate. Here’s Why. Nearly 70% of Americans think the economy is on the ‘wrong track’ and it’s …
Emerging markets are early in the advance of a bull market. Continuing to rise ahead of U.S. markets.
Why is PLTR stock crashing today? The much-needed modernization of the U.S. Army’s battlefield communications network being undertaken by Anduril, Palantir (PLTR.O), opens new tab and others is rife with “fundamental security” problems and vulnerabilities, and should be treated as a “very high risk,” according to a recent internal Army memo. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8pRjAbZx8hE
By the time the implosion of Housing Bubble 2.0 finishes playing out, I suspect a lot of unhappy landlords will be forced to slash rents to attract or keep quality tenants. 17% of Home Sellers dropped their asking price in August pic.twitter.com/oeOxYJ6s4N — Barchart (@Barchart) October 3, 2025 h/ty Boo_Randy_II
S&P 500 pulls back after hitting fresh record as U.S. government shutdown continues: Live updates
Chinese exports are hitting records in many markets, per Bloomberg: pic.twitter.com/lGBUYIC7m5 — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 30, 2025 President Xi Jinping’s export engine has proved unstoppable during five months of sky-high US tariffs, sending China toward a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus. With access to the US curtailed, Chinese manufacturers have shown they aren’t backing down: …
People felt safe while the danger grew quietly beneath their feet and nobody saw it coming until it hit like a storm. If we ignore warnings again the next crash could be even uglier and hit faster than anyone dares imagine. Just to give you an idea, Alan Greenspan (Former Fed Chair) first uttered his …
The AI money loop is creating a surge in valuations that feels unstoppable, but it hides enormous risk. Nvidia’s investments into OpenAI, Oracle’s GPU purchases, and OpenAI’s massive capacity orders keep pumping cash around in a cycle that inflates stock prices far faster than real-world growth. Each transaction looks like progress, but the system depends …
“When we have the next crisis, the word ‘private’ is going to be in every headline,” says Cornell Professor Dave Collum. In this interview with Daniela Cambone, Collum warns that the biggest risks in the next financial crisis won’t come from the public markets—stocks, Treasuries, and the like—but from the shadowy private markets: private credit, …